Preview: UFC Fight Night 153 ‘Gustafsson vs. Smith’

6 days to go till showtime !! all smiles coz the hard work is done!! u know it’s guaranteed fireworks when i step in the cage. #UFCStockholm pic.twitter.com/oTlEjmxMJ9

— Jimi Manuwa (@POSTERBOYJM) May 26, 2019

Light Heavyweights

Jimi Manuwa (17-5) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (11-1)

ODDS: Rakic (-230), Manuwa (+190)

It is difficult to write off anyone in the light heavyweight division, but it seems all but certain at this point that Manuwa will not get over the hump to title contention. Manuwa had a late start in MMA -- he made his pro debut at age 30 -- but subsequently found a quick path to the UFC, racking up a string of finishes that got the Londoner to the Octagon in about four years. From there, Manuwa continued to dominate, even if his stoppage wins were all strangely injury-related, until the UFC rushed the “Poster Boy” into tough losses against Alexander Gustafsson and Anthony Johnson. Manuwa did seem to come out well on the other side, though, as wins over Ovince St. Preux and Corey Anderson set up Manuwa for a title fight at UFC 214, if anything happened to Jon Jones. Unfortunately for Manuwa, Jones waited until after that fight to get into trouble, and even worse, the Brit suffered a shocking knockout loss to Volkan Oezdemir that bumped him from the title picture completely. Since then, Manuwa has had a tough time trying to move back up the ladder. A rematch against Jan Blachowicz showed that Manuwa has lost a step, and UFC 231 in December saw the Englishman lose a pure firefight to Thiago Santos. As a fighter who was always dependent on his physical gifts, the 39-year-old is probably closing in on the end, but for now, it is up to Manuwa to try and stave off every rising contender he can, including Austria’s Rakic.

Rakic has provided some badly needed fresh blood to the light heavyweight division, and this will be a huge test to see if he is ready to become a contender. Based off what was available from his pre-UFC fights, Rakic looked like a fine but not exceptional prospect, but he has since overachieved every step of the way. First, Rakic did well where others have failed, putting together enough volume to beat classic neutralizer Francimar Barroso. After that, Rakic mixed in his wrestling to win a dominant decision over Justin Ledet, and while things did not go quite as smoothly against Devin Clark, Rakic still managed to come out on top in a quick sprint. While those three wins are enough to give him a solid resume for a young light heavyweight, it is still difficult to tell what to make of Rakic in the aggregate. Did his dominance against Ledet speak more positively about Rakic or more negatively about the Texan? Was his knockout win over Clark more a result of the latter’s unharnessed aggression or something upon which Rakic can rely? Manuwa serves as both a tough test and a winnable fight, so this matchup should hopefully provide some more clarity about where Rakic goes from here.

This is a difficult fight to call. Momentum is obviously entirely on Rakic’s side, but Manuwa is also a clear step up over any of the Austrian’s previous opponents. Clark may be a solid facsimile in terms of physicality, but Manuwa’s functional but limited game is far more effective than Clark’s unstructured aggression. If Rakic is legit, he should be able to pick apart Manuwa without much trouble and possibly score a knockout, but if his rise has been a case of just beating up on overmatched opposition, this could be a rude awakening. Rakic should be faster, but he is still quite hittable, and the Clark bout was enough of a mess that it is virtually impossible to rely on Rakic putting together an excellent performance. Manuwa might just be circling the drain, but it seems likelier than not that the veteran will land something hard before the prospect can get things going. The pick is Manuwa via first-round knockout.

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