Preview: UFC 281 ‘Adesanya vs. Pereira’

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Bantamweights

Chris Gutierrez (18-4-2, 6-1-1 UFC) vs. #12 BW | Frankie Edgar (24-10-1, 18-10-1 UFC)

ODDS: Gutierrez (-215), Edgar (+185)

This is the last trip to the cage for Edgar, and while “The Answer” might be too respected to be truly underrated, it is worth taking stock of exactly how much he has accomplished. Edgar is undersized as a bantamweight by current standards, which makes it a bit insane that he managed to reign as the UFC’s lightweight champion for two years after unseating B.J. Penn in 2010. In another universe, Edgar’s reign may have gone even longer—his title loss and immediate rematch against Benson Henderson resulted in decisions that could have gone his way—but as it is, he moved down to 145 pounds and immediately established himself as the second-best featherweight on earth for most of the next few years, only falling short against Jose Aldo. If not for Aldo, Edgar likely would have gotten the second divisional title to truly cement himself as an all-time great, but it is still amazing what he was able to accomplish well into his late 30s; even as late as 2017, Edgar was absolutely mauling top prospects such as Yair Rodriguez. A 2018 knockout loss to Brian Ortega signaled the start of Edgar’s late-career slide, though he has still managed wins over Cub Swanson and Pedro Munhoz in the last few years. Edgar remains an extremely capable wrestler and a solid striker when he can get the ball rolling; it is just an issue of his once-legendary durability fading enough to leave him at constant risk of a knockout. Edgar dropped down to 135 pounds in 2020 with that win over Munhoz—a surprising showing that saw him fight completely against type, using a movement-heavy striking style to stay ahead of the Brazilian’s constant if one-dimensional pressure. However, the same concerns arose throughout 2021. Cory Sandhagen quickly obliterated the New Jersey native with a flying knee, and a November showing against Marlon Vera was going well enough until “Chito” scored a brutal knockout as soon as Edgar slowed down a bit in the third round. Now 41 years old, Edgar gets a retirement fight against Gutierrez, who is hitting his stride just enough to make this interesting.

Gutierrez’s 2018 UFC debut was a one-sided loss to Raoni Barcelos, but “El Guapo” has put together a seven-fight unbeaten streak since then, joining the ranks as one of the premier neutralizers of the division. Gutierrez has been content to stay defensively responsible, dictate a slow pace and pick apart his opponents, often with some powerful leg kicks. There has been a sense that Gutierrez has been walking a tightrope, as things have gotten dicier against opponents who were willing to bite down and press the action. Beyond the Barcelos loss, Cody Durden found plenty of early success with his wrestling before fading past the first round. That made it a pleasant surprise when Gutierrez put in a career-best performance against Batgerel Danaa in March. Danaa tried to force the issue, but found the Factory X rep difficult to track down, until Gutierrez closed the show with a spinning backfist for an out-of-character knockout win. That result does not change what the dynamic of this fight would have otherwise been. Takedown defense still sticks out as a weakness for Gutierrez, so Edgar should be able to find a great deal of success early by taking this to the mat and grinding things out in classic fashion. With that said, Gutierrez possessing some newfound finishing ability does raise some worries regarding Edgar’s ability to hold on for the victory. He did start to fade late against Vera and comes into this fight a year older. The Danaa win could be Gutierrez suddenly turning another corner, but the bet here is to rely on a track record that says he will not be able to find a finish. The pick is Edgar via decision.

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Adesanya vs. Pereira
Esparza vs. Zhang
Poirier vs. Chandler
Gutierrez vs. Edgar
Hooker vs. Puelles
The Prelims