Preview: UFC 281 ‘Adesanya vs. Pereira’

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The time has come for the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s annual November jaunt to New York, and the promotion will once again bring a stacked card to Madison Square Garden. The UFC 281 main event on Saturday is a fascinating bit of business, as Israel Adesanya defends his middleweight title against Alex Pereira—the only man to defeat him twice in kickboxing. It is a bit of a stunning accomplishment that Pereira made it to this spot in a year flat, given that he made his UFC debut the last time the organization touched down in The Big Apple. Beyond that, Carla Esparza defends her strawweight championship against Weili Zhang in a co-headliner where most are blindly picking the challenger, and from there, it is all about lightweight violence between Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler. Add in Frankie Edgar’s retirement fight against Chris Gutierrez and a fascinating opener between Dan Hooker and Claudio Puelles, and the UFC essentially nailed this one.

Now to the UFC 281 “Adesanya vs. Pereira” preview:

UFC Middleweight Championship

#2 P4P | Israel Adesanya (23-1, 12-1 UFC) vs. #4 MW | Alex Pereira (6-1, 3-0 UFC)

ODDS: Adesanya (-205), Pereira (+175)

Kickboxing rivals clash at the highest level of mixed martial arts, and it is still kind of a shock that everything came together for this fight to take place. Adesanya’s success crossing over was likely if not entirely guaranteed, as “The Last Stylebender” had spent a few years dipping his toe in the mixed martial arts waters during his kickboxing career before transitioning full-time in 2017. Adesanya showed enough that the UFC came calling within months, though the short-term concern was that he would not have the type of wrestling defense to immediately succeed at the UFC level. As it turns out, that concern lasted all of two months. Rob Wilkinson and Marvin Vettori each had their moments of control, but Adesanya shut down the wrestling of Brad Tavares in his third UFC fight and ended 2018 with one more win over Derek Brunson to mark himself as a rising contender. Adesanya completed his breakout in 2019. He beat legend and former idol Anderson Silva, gutted out a war against Kelvin Gastelum and then dismantled Robert Whittaker to claim the middleweight title and complete a stunning rise to power. Just 20 months after his UFC debut, Adesanya was the clear top 185-pound fighter in the world. Unfortunately, Adesanya’s title reign has proven him to be the second coming of Silva in some negative ways. “The Spider” was not always beloved in some of his more tepid performances, and Adesanya’s talents have allowed him to settle into a successful if often monotonous groove. Adesanya’s first title defense was an absolutely interminable affair against Yoel Romero and one of the worst fights of 2020. He called for the toughest fight in the division and seemed unclear what to do from there, refusing to press things against his challenger’s low-output and high-powered approach. That seemingly proved to be a fluke after Adesanya ran through a mentally broken Paulo Costa, after which it was surprisingly announced that he would move up to challenge light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz. It resulted in a game effort in which Adesanya had his moments but struggled against a much more physically imposing opponent for his first mixed martial arts loss. Since then, things have been frustratingly steady. There has not been much question that he has won his title defenses against Vettori, Whittaker and Jared Cannonier, but Adesanya has set himself apart from his opponents with his reach and kickboxing skill and then simply sat on leads against opponents who have not been able to take back any momentum. Adesanya now finds himself where Silva once did. It is impressive what he is able to accomplish but not particularly interesting for someone who, at times, has been one of the most electric fighters in the sport. For Silva, it was the trash talking of Chael Sonnen that eventually revitalized his title reign. For Adesanya, the hope is that things will pick up against the only man to defeat him in kickboxing twice.

Pereira only moved to mixed martial arts full-time in September 2021, and the Brazilian’s success in his new sport was much less guaranteed than Adesanya’s. “Poatan” had also dabbled in mixed martial arts but had a much more inconsistent track record, including a 2015 debut that saw him get overly aggressive and submitted. When he wrapped up his kickboxing career, the UFC wasted no time getting in the Pereira business. Already in his mid-30s and with a built-in storyline for a fight against the company’s dominant champion, the UFC signed Pereira for a promotional debut on last year’s November card out of Madison Square Garden. The positives and negatives of Pereira were fully on display against Andreas Michailidis. To his credit, Pereira stayed patient for much of the fight, but an ugly first round saw him accomplish little as Michailidis pursued his wrestling; the second round saw Pereira immediately uncork a flying knee and knock Michailidis unconscious. With it established that Pereira both had a lot to work on and might be so dangerous that none of it matters, the UFC paired him with Brazilian berserker Bruno Silva in a fight that figured to be all fireworks. Naturally, it was a bit of a slow-paced affair that saw Silva have some surprising wrestling success but clearly lose a decision thanks to Pereira’s larger moments of offense. That set Pereira up to punch his ticket for a middleweight title shot with a win over Sean Strickland. Aided by Strickland deciding to march down and strike with him, it took the Brazilian all of two and a half minutes to blast the Californian and set up his anticipated title challenge.

At a very basic level, this seems to be an easy calculation: Neither man pursues wrestling and Pereira has already won twice in a pure kickboxing match, so he should be favored. However, the first issue is that while Pereira may have won both of their previous meetings, he did not entirely separate himself as the clearly better striker. Their first fight ended in a controversial decision that most agree should have gone to Adesanya, and the current middleweight champion had things well in hand for two rounds in the rematch until Pereira suddenly scored a knockout. Otherwise, Adesanya looked quicker and more evasive—something that should not really change for this fight, especially with how Pereira has approached his mixed martial arts bouts. After unchecked aggression and overconfidence led him to lose his mixed martial arts debut, Pereira has taken his time to find his openings during his UFC career. The approach has been perfectly fine against Michailidis, Silva and Strickland—opponents who need to work with some level of pressure, which, in turn, gives Pereira opportunities to strike. However, Adesanya is certainly not cut from that cloth. He has the frame to work at range even against Pereira, and he is obviously a much higher-level kickboxer than anyone the Brazilian has faced in mixed martial arts to date. The assumption has been that Pereira is finally the man to provide Adesanya enough discomfort to force some risk out of the champion. Is that a guarantee? Naturally, with this being a pairing of two excellent kickboxers, another huge question is exactly how wrestling manifests itself in this match. Fighters typically stick to their tendencies, so while Pereira’s takedown defense has looked like a clear weakness for Adesanya to exploit, it is unclear if the champion has any appetite for doing so. Establishing that threat would probably go a long way towards making things easier for Adesanya in certain aspects. If it has been the idea of wrestling that has caused Pereira to adopt this more patient approach, giving him more to think about it would make the striking game much more comfortable. Again, that comes with some inherent risks. Beyond closing the distance in a fight that would probably be better served taking place at range, Pereira reads as both the physically stronger fighter and, based on his early career, the more willing grappler. So while Pereira’s takedown defense has not looked particularly great, it is also a complete unknown if Adesanya’s wrestling itself can be successful enough to clear that low bar. At any rate, this fight is a treat with a ton of question marks that could settle the whole thing. While this is Adesanya’s riskiest title defense yet, he is the much more proven fighter in every aspect. The hope is that Pereira can actually force things enough for Adesanya to take some of those risks, but the pick is “The Last Stylebender” via clear decision.

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Esparza vs. Zhang
Poirier vs. Chandler
Gutierrez vs. Edgar
Hooker vs. Puelles
The Prelims