UFC on ESPN 46 Beforemath: Will Amir Albazi Make a Big Splash?

After a week’s break, we are now in a 12-week stretch for the Ultimate Fighting Championship and we get started with a flyweight matchup. “UFC Vegas 74” features former interim title challenger Kai Kara-France attempting to fend off surging contender Amir Albazi. For Albazi, this fight is a major step up in competition from his first four fights in the UFC. Kara-France is a monster to deal with. Will Amir Albazi make his big splash by putting down City Kickboxing’s Kara-France? That is our question for today’s issue of Beforemath.

Are Quality Wins A Real Thing?

Since joining the UFC in 2018, Kara-France has only lost three times. He has been pure action from beginning to end and has beaten some of the best in the division, surviving the 2019 flyweight purge and making his way to a shot at an interim title. His resume gets better as he fights. Mark De La Rosa, Tyson Nam, Rogelio Bontorin, Cody Garbrandt and Askar Askarov are his last five wins, each one more impressive than the previous. His three losses have come at the hands of Brandon Moreno twice and Brandon Royval. Moreno is, of course, now our champion. Those three fights show us some of the holes in Kara-France’s game, though exploiting those holes is easier said than done.

With Albazi being such a well-rounded fighter, he’s not truly exceptional at anything. That’s not a bad thing, as he can hold his own in most situations in MMA. But Kara-France can be exceptional on the feet and that’s a place to thrive. Against Moreno, a striking monster in his own right, Kara-France had much success on the feet. In our first figure, we see Kara-France (1) set Brandon Moreno up with a jab. This gets Moreno to get his guard up high, which provides a path up the middle. Kara-France knows this and (2) lands a huge uppercut up the middle, splitting the guard of Moreno to land nicely.

As seen in his fight with Cody Garbrandt and even more notably the Askar Askarov fight, Kara-France has mastermind game planners behind him at City Kickboxing. Consider this: Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski spend their time there. Brad Riddell, Dan Hooker and Carlos Ulberg hang out there as well. The gym is packed to the brim with minds and talent. With these minds in his corner, Kara-France will be prepared for an all-around fighter like Albazi. We’ve seen in his rematch with Moreno and in the Askarov fight that he is also great at implementing a game plan. Those two fights were completely different from an approach perspective. This fight should see him come in with a well-crafted strategy.

With Riddell in is camp, some of that Tiger Muay Thai comes through. Riddell’s background in muay thai is something that Kara-France works hard at adapting. (1) Having caught a kick of Moreno, Kara-France holds on to the kick. (2) He will then kick out the rear leg of Moreno and (3) secure the takedown. Kicking out the leg of an opponent is something that we see all the time in the muay thai circuit and something Kara-France can use against an Albazi who doesn’t have the experience to deal with this properly.

Albazi is good from everywhere but not quite the specialist that Moreno or Askarov is. Kara-France will have the opportunity to be better than Albazi at both key areas of the fight: on the feet and on the ground. Against Moreno we saw a crafty Kara-France that stood with Moreno for three rounds before the huge shot to the body that put him down with a liver shot, the best type of knockout there is. Against Askarov, he defended takedowns. He will have to come out as the best Kara-France to beat Albazi, a fighter who can do it all.

Time to Shine

Contenders like Albazi do not get the type of opportunity that he’s getting against Kara-France too often. Ranked seventh with Kara-France sitting at No. 3, Kara-France could have sat Albazi out of the conversation, but they gave him a shot. Now it’s his time to make a statement. While impressive, his wins over Alessandro Costa, Francisco Figueiredo, Zhalgas Zhumagulov, and Malcom Gordon aren’t of the caliber fighter that Albazi’s new opponent is. Albazi is well-rounded, but to win this fight he will need to be more than that. He will need to be exceptional.

While part of Albazi’s game is to do what he does well, a part of winning championship-level fights is often taking away weapons of your opponents, specifically ones preferred by your opponent. The big one for this fight will be the low kick. Against Brandon Moreno, Kara-France tore up the legs of Moreno, landing 26 of 35 in three rounds. In fact, going to the legs is a regular thing for Kara-France. 15-16 against Askarov, a lower number than normal explained by Askarov’s takedown abilities, and 15-20 in the first Moreno fight, 24-28 against De La Rosa. When kicking is required, Kara-France uses the weapon liberally.

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To negate this, Albazi is going to have to make a habit of checking kicks. While the traditional way of checking kicks involves lifting the knee to allow for a more favorable impact, I prefer the other style of checking the kick, as seen in the GIF above. Hinging at the knee allows fighters to cause their opponent to miss a kick completely, allowing their momentum to follow through and put them out of position. There, Albazi can grab a body lock or land a high kick of his own, or any offense if were being honest. Making Kara-France miss, something he does often already, will create an angle almost passively where Albazi can grab a leg or land something of his own to punish Kara-France.

Albazi will have to get some offense of his going as well. Where Askarov didn’t have the respect of Kara-France standing and all of Kara-France’s energy went into defending takedowns, Albazi has the ability to threaten Kara-France on the feet. This will open the takedowns up if the opportunity arises.

Against Francisco Figueiredo, we saw Albazi pressing his opponent to the fence. (1) He grabs the over under, as seen in the picture above. This is essentially an underhook on one side and an overhook, or whizzer, on the other side. (2) With the overhook side of Figueiredo reaped, Albazi pulls Figueiredo over the leg and to the side where he cannot post up. Looking at that second frame, we see the overhook of Albazi is controlling the arm of Figueiredo and (3) securing the takedown.

Once on the ground, Kai Kara-France is incredibly scrambly and hard to keep down. Albazi will need to control Kara-France once he gets him there. For that, we go back to the Figueiredo fight, only moments later.

Looking to get the hooks in, (1) Albazi grabs the posted wrist of Figueiredo. He will (2) pull the wrist in and under Figueiredo. This will remove the post of Figueiredo and get him to fall to that side. (3) Once fallen to that side, the hand is trapped under Figueiredo and offers Albazi more opportunities at control.

With Kara-France being such a wild fighter, Albazi will also want to stay off the center line as well. The looping punches of Kara-France have devastating effects. A fighter moving back vertically is a disaster waiting to happen and even saw Kara-France give Moreno trouble, hurting him at one point in their rematch. Albazi will need to move vertically and pivot out to stay out of trouble. We’ve seen Albazi pivot out in the past too, specifically against Malcolm Gordon. Now he will have to execute at even higher levels than he has before.

Often, a young and upcoming fighter will have to rise to the occasion to make their name known. Sean O'Malley did so against Petr Yan. Cain Velasquez did so against Brock Lesnar. This will be Albazi’s chance to follow their example for a shot at flyweight glory. Dive in, Albazi, it’s time to make a splash.