UFC on ABC 5 Beforemath: Will Ilia Topuria Rise to the Occasion?

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Ilia Topuria is one of the most interesting up-and-comers to come through the featherweight division in recent years. He will face former interim title challenger Josh Emmett in the UFC on ABC 5 headliner on Saturday at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. Their bout promises fireworks.

Let’s get down and dirty as we examine the fight between Emmett and Topuria:

Note to Emmett: Don’t Get Overwhelmed

Emmett is an odd fighter. He is a great wrestler and hits like a truck, but his output is lacking and he gets overwhelmed when volume comes back his way. Against a volume fighter like Topuria, this could end in disaster. Emmett will have to be conscious not to get lulled into waiting for one shot. Topuria will go full blast for five rounds, and Emmett risks getting left behind as the fight goes longer.

Since his brutal loss to Jeremy Stephens in 2018, Emmett has been on a tear. He won five straight but saw that streak snapped by Yair Rodriguez in their battle for the interim title. Bouncing back is important for Emmett’s title hopes. He hits heavy and can put anyone’s lights out, but finding the necessary punches is what cost him the Rodriguez fight.

Emmett will want to slow down Topuria and will need to rely on the body work to get him there. However, Emmett is not known as a body puncher, as the only occasions in which he has gone to the body reliably was against Calvin Kattar in 2022 and Scott Holtzman in 2016. This shows us that Emmett is capable of targeting the midsection of his opponents but chooses to go for the head instead. Who can blame him? He has cinder blocks as hands, and anyone can catch a bomb and be put out.

For Emmett to find his best path to victory, he will have to break out some new tools for Topuria. First, we need to look at where Topuria has weaknesses. In the heat of the moment, Topuria will often put himself out of position and overextend on big, looping punches.

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Against Bryce Mitchell, we see Topuria overextended when he had “Thug Nasty” backed against the fence. Here, Emmett can create openings by simply letting Topuria swing for the fences. How does he do that? Emmett will have to set up his huge right and utilize feints.

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In setting up the shot, Kevin Holland had to only throw nine punches to the body. However, it worked perfectly. Making the read (1), Holland will literally slap at his knee. The options here are a knee tap, picking up the single-leg or a multitude of other things. We can see in the next frame (2) that Tim Means was thinking “jab.” He lowers his right hand and tries to slap it away. Holland picks up on this and (3) blasts Means with a right hand. This is the exact type of punch at which Emmett excels. Holland would go back to the well for the drop and (4) throw a jab down low. Means tried to push Holland away and missed off the hip. (5) Holland then returns with a flush right hand that knocks down Means.

Topuria is so high octane that he will be eager to exchange in the pocket with Emmett. These types of level changes will do him well and help him connect with that dangerous right hand.

Emmett is also not much of a kicker, but he will need to be against Topuria. With all the power in his hands, one would assume that Emmett can kick quite hard. In fact, when looking at old footage, it seems as though Emmett does not commit to them in volume or power.

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When considering how Emmett can work feints into his kicking game, we look at Geoff Neal against Vicente Luque. After blasting the leg a few times, Neal knew he was getting reactions out of Luque. (1) To start, Neal was at a safe range and set up for a kick, selling it a decent amount. (2) Neal twists his knee as if he is going to kick and it will draw a jab out of Luque. (3) Neal will slip that punch and crack Luque with a left.

The key to this, however, will be Emmett actually kicking the leg to start with. If he shows a feint without establishing the threat of the low kick, Topuria will just come forward and smash him out as he is feinting. Emmett will need to actually land first before threatening with the feint, or it is all for nothing.

At the end of the day, we could be asking for Emmett to be a completely different fighter. Adding all these things to his game is not what got him to where he is today. However, to be the best in a division like featherweight, constant improvement is a must.

Topuria: Welcome to the Show

Topuria is such an interesting fighter. He is a great hitter with a grappling background. He has fended off grapplers of all types: Mitchell, Damon Jackson and Ryan Hall, to name a few. Emmett is capable of wrestling but will not likely rely on it before Topuria beats him up on the feet. This means that Topuria needs to be wary of the right hand.

Topuria will want to hit heavy, hit the body and hit often. When watching Emmett’s bout with Rodriguez, it becomes clear he was overwhelmed with volume and speed. Topuria is likely not the faster fighter so he will have to keep Emmett at bay while navigating the deep waters of the Team Alpha Male rep’s power.

Topuria likes to move his head in Mike Tyson-like fashion. Weaving in and out, he often chains together punches from his movement that plays into his hands.

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Looking at his fight with Mitchell, (1) Topuria keeps his stance low and will weave to the left and right, keeping his head off the center line. (2) Weaving to the left will open up the left hand for Topuria and the (3) right hand is opened up with a weave to that direction. This keeps Topuria safe by keeping him off the center line while advancing and opening up strikes. Topuria does not just weave his head to get in the pocket and clinch up. He is looking for strikes at all times.

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Building off of what we just discussed, we look at Topuria (1 and 2) weaving his way into the pocket with Mitchell. He dips and slips, loading up his hands until Mitchell throws a shot. Then, on the dip to his right, (3) Topuria throws a right uppercut. The twist of the hips from the uppercut loads up the left hand, and (4) Topuria throws a left hook. Again, this naturally sets up a right hand, and Topuria finally lands a clean punch with a cross.

Chaining these punches together is something Topuria will lean on, as he does in every fight. Emmett fights well when he can fight at his pace, so keeping him in survival mode trying to fend off a relentless attack will benefit Topuria greatly.

Topuria likes to go to the body, and that worked wonders for Rodriguez against Emmett. Rodriguez is a kick-heavy fighter when it comes to body work, and Topuria will utilize punches. Topuria does not kick, though adding them to his arsenal could do him some good. Once Rodriguez had Emmett on the back foot, tired from the body work, he utilized his grappling and choked out the Californian. Topuria has one win by submission in the UFC, but eight of his overall wins have come via tapout. Topuria is a definite submission threat.

In the off chance that his counterpart shoots or if Topuria fancies it, taking down Emmett could be an option. However, Emmett is a tough out when it comes to takedowns.

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Topuria had Mitchell begging for a takedown. (1) Mitchell was desperate and was on both knees, giving Topuria the over-under. Topuria grabbed the overhook with his left hand and punched underneath with his right. (2) Topuria pulled Mitchell across his body and slammed him hard to the mat.

These types of exchanges are something we could see from Topuria as he begins to frustrate Emmett and forces him out of his comfort zone. However, Topuria will have to stay safe in this fight. Emmett can turn out the lights at any moment in the fight, and if Topuria gets caught like he did against Jai Herbert, he could have a bad night.

This is the biggest moment of Topuria’s career, and oftentimes we see fighters like this rise to the occasion. With that said, Emmett is tough. He is a heavy-handed slugger who is not going to back down from a challenge.