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There will be a whopping four title fights this weekend as UFC 200, “The Ultimate Fighter 23” Finale and UFC Fight Night “Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez” deliver fans all the fighting they can handle in one week. With so many titles on the line, the entire landscape of the Ultimate Fighting Championship can change once the dust settles. It’s a fascinating lineup with some really intriguing matchups. But the question that I have bouncing around in my head is which one of these underdogs will walk away with UFC gold around their waist? Eddie Alvarez, Claudia Galdelha and Amanda Nunes will get their first opportunity to taste UFC gold.
I’ve left Frankie Edgar vs. Jose Aldo off for two reasons: They are fighting for an interim title and the line is about even.
All current lines courtesy of Sportsbook Review
Amanda Nunes (+210)
Not likely. Although Nunes has won her last three fights, she has an uphill battle to climb against the motivated Miesha Tate, who has no desire to relinquish the title she worked so hard to get. Some may think that Tate is looking past Nunes to a bigger fight against Ronda Rousey. However, Tate is well aware that there will be no Rousey fight unless she can defend her title at UFC 200. Her tenacity will be on full tilt as she’ll repeatedly take Nunes down and control her from top position. Tate might be in for a few scares against the knockout-minded Nunes, but her seasoning on the big stage will carry her though.
Eddie Alvarez (+285)
No. Although Alvarez has won back to back fights against Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez, facing an aggressive Rafael dos Anjos is going to present him with a world of problems. After losing to Donald Cerrone, Alvarez worked his way into the title picture with a pair of split decisions. Granted, he’s only lost two fights since 2009, but dos Anjos is on an entirely new plateau. RDA steamrolled both Cerrone and Pettis in his previous two title fights. I know you can’t always look at common opponents as an indicator, but I’m simply looking at the way that dos Anjos has been putting away his foes. His last four fights have been against high level opponents (Benson Henderson and Nate Diaz along with the aforementioned Cerrone and Pettis) and the results have been impressive. Alvarez has said that dos Anjos’ aggressive style will work against him. But I think this is going to work the other way, as the champion will be salivating for another opponent who dares to come at him. Cerrone and Pettis didn’t fare so well. Chances are that Alvarez won’t either.
Claudia Gadelha (+110)
Ah, there’s my pick.
She’s only lost one fight, which was a disputed split decision to Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Her style is trouble for any strawweight and the first fight with the Polish fighter could have easily went her way. Jedrzejczyk’s confidence is through the roof but Gadelha has all of the tools to dismantle the champion and wrap gold around her waist this weekend. The tension between the two is thick, and could very well play into the hands of Gadelha. Jedrzejczyk’s volume striking may be unrivaled, but be certain that Gadelha plans to put her on her back as often as she can to work in her submission game. And if she’s able to put the champion on her back enough times, she could take a narrow five round decision. After all, this feud is ripe for a trilogy.
Andreas Hale is the editorial content director of 2DopeBoyz.com, co-host of the boxing, MMA and pro wrestling podcast “The Corner” and a regular columnist for Sherdog.com. You can follow on Twitter for his random yet educated thoughts on combat sports, music, film and popular culture.