UFC Fight Night 231 Beforemath: Jailton Almeida’s Path to Victory

What’s a new name in the heavyweight division to do when the top is so mapped out already? Jon Jones, the current champ, is out with an injury after he had been scheduled to face Stipe Miocic in a couple weeks. That led to Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich being booked to fight for the interim title, ranked No. 2 and No. 4 respectively.

For Jailton Almeida, the new kid on the block, breaking into the top of the division will require him to play the long game as the division sorts out. Headlining “UFC Sao Paulo,” Almeida looks to continue his unbeaten streak in the UFC and beat the fan favorite Derrick Lewis.

Lewis is the power puncher. So how does Almeida, a grappler, avoid this? What does he do to get in on the hips and keep the fight there? In this week’s Beforemath column, we will look at that.

The Lewis Threat

For Almeida, the threat will be the power of Lewis. He’s the hardest hitter in UFC history, point blank. He’s not technical and he’s not fun to analyze. Lewis likes to time the uppercut off a takedown and brawl. It’s gotten Lewis to two title fights in the heavyweight division. His power is unparalleled.

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Almeida dives in on takedowns, double-legs to be specific, from range, so the uppercut will be a threat. When Lewis fights a grappler, the right hand is his main point of attack. If Almeida shoots from too far out or telegraphs a little too much, it will be lights out. Let’s take a look at Lewis’ answer to takedowns.

Against Curtis Blaydes, Lewis (1) reads the level change. As Blaydes shoots (2) he looks straight to the ground and shoots directly into Lewis’ right hand. (3) Lewis connects clean and (4) puts Blaydes out cold.

And that will truly be the extent of the threat from Lewis outside of him coming forward and looking to brawl. Lewis doesn’t like getting put on the back foot and will go to the fence if he’s forced there. Almeida is all about pressure and pushing his opponent to the fence to take the shot.

The Solution: Almeida Setting Up his Takedowns

The problem with Lewis is basic: He has a lot of power and looks for the uppercut on an attempt when his opponents shoot to his power hand. What we know about Lewis’ fighting style is that he is content to go backwards if his opponents push him there. Almeida will likely look to shoot to the left side of Lewis after pushing him back if he’d picked up any of these two things. In fact, he has a history of doing both.

Almeida loves to shoot for a double-leg takedown. Being a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, getting the fight to where he can thrive and dominate would be in his best interest. Almeida sets up his takedowns in two basic ways. His second go-to is to slap the hands of his opponent, showing them a left hook, and raising their hands to get in on the hips.

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His main setup for the shot accomplishes the same thing. Very often, Almeida throws a teep to the face and as his leg comes down, changes levels to get to the hips. The kick serves the same purpose as the slapping of the hands and raises his opponent’s guard.

In practice, (1) Almeida starts us off in an orthodox stance, mirroring his opponent. With his rear leg he (2) throws the teep in the face of Marques which brings Marques’ guard up. As the foot comes down (3) Almeida drops his level and (4) shoots. Notice where Almeida’s head is positioned–to the outside of the lead leg which is away from the power hand. This is exactly what Almeida needs to do to stay safe from that scary Lewis uppercut. Finally, (5) Almeida drives to the fence where he would eventually complete the takedown.

Almeida will not want to hang around at the hips of Lewis as he pushes to the fence. Lewis generates power in these positions as he does everywhere else. Completing the takedown quickly will be very important from this position. What happen if Lewis meme’s and gets back up from being takedown to prove wrestling is fake? We’ve seen it before where Lewis seemingly decides to just stand up. Once on the ground, the burden will be on Almeida to keep the fight there. Here is how.

With many of Almeida’s takedowns coming against the fence, he often gives his opponents the opportunity to wall-walk up and out of the position. Above, (1) Almeida has Rozenstruik on his side and reaps his right leg and puts his knee in position to get to mount. Almeida (2) begins to wedge himself between Rozenstruik and the fence. This gives Rozenstruik the opportunity to shrimp to his right onto his back. Big mistake. Almeida (3) slides that right knee across and (4) into full mount.

This mistake is rudimentary but what do we expect from Jairzinho Rozenstruik, the former kickboxer? Lewis can be expected to make these same mistakes as well in a scramble to get out of a bad position. Any fight with Lewis has its inherent dangers. But the heavy-hitting “Black Beast” is far from unbeatable. Ciryl Gane managed to smash the legs on his way to victory. Daniel Cormier wrestled him into oblivion. Almeida will take the latter.