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Today we are going to dive into this fight of epic proportions and break down what could be one of the most exciting bantamweight title matchups in years. It’s time for Beforemath.
Sterling: Be Big, Be Bold
Sterling’s rise through the bantamweight division was huge. His reign as a champion has been highly scrutinized. Capturing the title off of a disqualification, Sterling proved himself the rightful heir to the throne by beating Petr Yan in a very close rematch which some would call controversial. His next defense was against former champion T.J. Dillashaw who came in from a year layoff and with a bum shoulder. Sterling walked through him. Now he faces the former champion Cejudo fresh off of a three-year absence. Win or lose, I feel Sterling will be wrongly criticized again even if he wins. But it is his job to win and he always goes out to do that. Sterling is the active fighter and that is a major part of this puzzle at UFC 288. With Cejudo sidelined for three years, Sterling can add another opportunistic win to his resume.
We know generally what Cejudo will bring to the table. He likes to wrestle, let his hands go and kick. He’s quite well-rounded and it’s garnered him much success. Sterling happens to be good at punishing ill-timed shots. Catching the kicks of Cejudo could be what really puts Sterling over the top. Cejudo gets his kicks caught all the time and Sterling will be the one who can punish him the most for it. Cejudo will also have a massive four-inch reach disadvantage. Sterling is long and lanky, and will use that length advantage to make Cejudo overextend on his punches and kicks to duck around to the back and chase those chokes he’s so good at finding. Against Yan, Sterling did a great job getting to the back and riding out the fight to grind his way to a victory. It may not have been pretty, but it was effective and it defended his title and legitimized his reign.
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In our first figure, we see (1) Sterling pressing the pace and Yan clearly loads up his left. Anticipating this, Sterling will (2) dip underneath the cross, allowing Sterling to get to the leg. Here, (3) Sterling nabs the leg and eventually gets Yan to the ground.
Cejudo isn’t a chronic overextender when it comes to his punches. But with the reach advantage Sterling has, He can draw a strike similar to this to duck under and get to the leg or go around the back to get his hooks in. He needs to be worried about Cejudo’s counter-wrestling though. Cejudo is a gold medalist (I’m not sure if you knew that) at freestyle wrestling. During his Olympic run, Cejudo performed his best when he was behind and on the counter. Sterling needs to get his takedowns quickly and efficiently. Otherwise, he will run the risk of a reversal and how embarrassing would that be for the man bound for featherweight?
While Cejudo may not be the No. 1 contender that everyone thinks of when it comes to bantamweight title fights, his legacy is undeniable and he never lost the belt. Sterling beating Cejudo puts even more credibility on a reign that he’s been trying to validate since gaining the title. The second Yan win wasn’t enough as fans called for a legitimate contender. Cejudo isn’t Sean O’Malley, but he’s a legacy building fight and that’s what Sterling is here for.
Cejudo: The King Cometh
The burden is truly on Cejudo at UFC 288. After three years away, he can pull a quasi-Georges St. Pierre and come back to regain a title. The two aren’t identical situations but have similar precedents. A win over Sterling would remind everyone how good Cejudo is and be an instant nightmare for the rest of the top bantamweight contenders.
There are other x-factors in UFC 288’s main event. Has Cejudo been training in his time off? Will the size difference bother him? Can he deal with Sterling’s pressure and pace? Has Cejudo added new wrinkles to his game due to his time with Mike Tyson? All of these are speculative, and we cannot really quantify here. But we can look at what he’s done against very good opponents and how Sterling handles similar techniques.
First thing is first, all fights start on the feet. Striking is going to be how this fight starts unless one of them decides to butt-scoot across the Octagon like this is a blue belt IBJJF bout. Somehow, I don’t see that happening. Cejudo has the advantage on the feet skill-wise. But that doesn’t mean he won’t struggle. Sterling will be closing the distance and looking to clinch. He throws wide hooks and long, over extended punches. Similar to what we discussed with Sterling earlier, Cejudo can also capitalize on his opponent over extending. Instead of grabbing the leg, Cejudo needs to go to the back himself and drag Sterling down.
Should he find himself in a clinch, Cejudo can look for a few trips to get on top of Aljamain Sterling. For this, we will take a look at Yan once again.
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When he fought Yan the first time, Sterling was desperate to get into a clinch at times to get away from Yan’s boxing. Yan utilized this and managed to sweep Sterling a couple times. (1) Sterling gave up control to Yan and allowed him to get wrist control and his arm across his torso. Yan would then (2) reach his leg around the outside leg of Starling and would (3) pull Sterling’s head towards that leg. With the countering motions, Yan is (4) able to get the takedown.
Cejudo is no stranger to these trips either. He’s utilized them during his entire career, from wrestling to his two title runs in mixed martial arts. It has baffled his opponents and saved him in some disadvantageous positions.
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Demetrious Johnson is tough for any fighter. Despite Cejudo’s wrestling pedigree, Johnson was able to stay out of trouble in their second fight at UFC 227. Cejudo attempted a single-leg takedown and (1) found himself in a clinch with Johnson. With Johnson being so athletic and dangerous, Cejudo needed to make a move fast. He would (2) reap the inside of the leg of Johnson and (3) pull him towards the leg and to the ground. This is fundamentally different than the Yan trip but the opportunities are all the same.
If Cejudo can get to the ground with Sterling, the threat is still there to be reversed and end up with Sterling on his back anyway. Cejudo will want to maintain control once he’s in an advantageous position against Sterling. Patience will be the key, patience and control.
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In his last fight against Dominick Cruz, Cejudo used some of that trickery to pour on a little extra damage against the veteran MMA fighter. This sequence comes after the knee that hurt Cruz. Cejudo would dive on Cruz and look to pound him out. (1) In the first frame, we can see that when Cejudo was diving on Cruz, he dropped his hips on the hands of Cruz that traps his left hand. (2) On the other side we see Cejudo with the heads up play by grabbing the right arm of Cruz with his right arm. This moment only last a second or two but it’s time enough for Cejudo to slow up Cruz and convince the referee to put a stop to the fight and Cejudo to retain his title.
Lastly, Cejudo needs to mind the kicks. As talked about in the Sterling section, he’s prone to get his kicks caught and Sterling is good at capitalizing on that. Cejudo needs to pick when he kicks and it would be good practice to keep them below the knee.
At the end of the day, this is a tough task for Cejudo. His two bantamweight wins, Marlon Moraes and Cruz, haven’t aged well, but the legitimacy of Sterling’s title reign is unreasonably questioned. So it’s almost a lose-lose for Cejudo. He wins and he beat an undeserving champ all while missing out on the Yan fights. He loses and Sterling still likely doesn’t win over the fans despite how good he actually is. Despite how the fans see it, it is still the job of both Cejudo and Sterling to go out and win. That is their job: to beat whomever the UFC puts in front of them.