UFC 281 Aftermath: Adesanya’s Kryptonite | Fight Analysis

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Well, well, well, if it isn’t a new middleweight era. Over the weekend, Alex Pereira captured the middleweight title from incumbent champion Israel Adesanya at UFC 281. Pereira knocked out Adesanya in Round 5 of a fight in which he wasn’t getting blasted, but he wasn’t winning either. Now there is a new king. On today’s issue of Aftermath, we’re looking at that fight and comparing it to the Beforemath column to see what worked for Pereira and Adesanya.

Israel Adesanya: Pereira Pulls out the Best in Him

Adesanya is now 0-3 against Pereira across kickboxing and MMA, with two knockout losses, but don’t let that fool you; these fights are closer than the stat line shows. For most of this fight, Adesanya beat Pereira and was up on the scorecards 3-1. He finally put on a good fight and his reward for it was a good effort, the loss of his belt and a stiff left hook to the dome.

Adesanya’s problems stemmed from the low kick game. Early on, Pereira invested in the low kick and punished Adesanya because of it. In Beforemath, we talked about this: “When fighting a counter fighter, the legs are always the last thing to leave an exchange. Pereira can end many of his combos with a low kick, punish Adesanya’s mobility and set up his hook.”

Adesanya came in and just ate those kicks from Pereira. It affected his mobility and that led to his demise at UFC 281, but it wasn’t only the offensive leg kicks from Pereira that hurt Adesanya, it was also Adesanya’s inability to land low kicks of his own. All night, Adesanya threw low kicks of his own to try to “kick the kicker.” The theory goes: If you can kick him first, he won’t be able to kick you. Adesanya had a decent read on when Pereira would kick but when he threw his own kicks, they were naked and Pereira checked them almost every time. This allowed Pereira to answer with kicks of his own. Adesanya didn’t set his kicks up on the end of combos for the most part, probably due to the prospect of the left hook of Pereira looking him dead in the eyes. Regardless of why Adesanya did or did not do something about the kicking game, it cost him the fight and his title.

Adesanya didn’t fight badly; don’t let my criticism fool you. It’s what cost him the fight but is not indicative of the entire match. Adesanya fought brilliantly, as well as he did against Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa in their fights. He broke his boring spell and put on a show for fans. He even hurt Pereira at one point and had it landed earlier, it could have been the end for Pereira.

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With the threat of the left hook looming large, Adesanya thought of some creative ways to deal with it efficiently. Fighting defensively risked Adesanya becoming a punching bag for Pereira who would come forward and throw no matter what. Adesanya had to go first. In Figure 1 above, we see the beautiful landing that Adesanya had on Pereira that had him almost put him away. (1) In the beginning Adesanya steps in with a long, hard jab from orthodox stance. To deal with the counter, (2) Adesanya leaves his jabbing hand extended, something that puzzled me quite a bit upon initially viewing the fight. Why would Adesanya leave himself extended like that and be open to a counter? But after watching the bit again and slowing it down, I can see the method behind his madness. (3) The angle is tough to see from the broadcast but if you look close enough you can see Israel Adesanya basically hammerfist that jab down and to his right, bumping the left of Pereira, effectively parrying the left hook before it even is thrown. Disrupting the (4) left hand provides time and path for Adesanya to fire the right hand in and stun Pereira just as the round ends.

Adesanya also did well switching stances, keeping Pereira guessing at where the best shots would come from. Another thing I liked was the grappling. Adesanya scored his first UFC takedown of his career, as he took advantage of a botched Pereira uchi mata and ended up on top. What was really nice was when Pereira did what he was supposed to do—get to the fence and wall-walk—Adesanya kept the body lock and dragged him away from the edge of the cage so that wouldn’t happen again. It was a pretty cool moment of grappling competence from Adesanya and I’d like to see him do it more in the inevitable rematch.

All these things are good but they weren’t quite enough for Adesanya. He was in there with his kryptonite: a big guy with massive power named Alex Pereira.

Alex Pereira: The New King

Pereira may not have won every second of that fight, but it’s the score at the final buzzer that matters. That is true in MMA as well as in other sports, but with one caveat: Pereira has a cheat code that makes the buzzer ring when he wants to.

The most improbable champion, Pereira was fast-tracked to the top due to his history with Adesanya. Fortunately for him—and the UFC if they’re looking for the next boogeyman—it worked out. Pereira could be matched up with Khamzat Chimaev next and get pounded into oblivion, but fans would still point to him beating Adesanya exactly like their last kickboxing fight.

For Pereira, his game plan worked. He smashed the legs knowing Adesanya wouldn’t check the low kick. He made sure to check the kicks coming back at him. He wore down the mobility of an incredibly squirrely foe and knocked him out. Some differences with Pereira’s approach to this fight as opposed to last was his aggression. In their second kickboxing match, Pereira let Adesanya come forward and pressure him. At UFC 281, he came forward and kept Adesanya on the back foot. While it wasn’t all the time, Pereira did it just enough to nullify enough of the offense of Adesanya to stay in the fight and make it to Round 5.

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Another difference from kickboxing to MMA was the fighting enclosure. Kickboxing takes place in a ring; MMA, a steel cage. It changes defense along the edge of the fighting platform. He didn’t get it early on, but Pereira eventually figured out that when Adesanya is against the fence, he can’t lean back like he does a lot of the time. In Figure 2, we can see some of the differences. (1) In kickboxing, we can see Pereira push Adesanya to the fence. With ring ropes, Adesanya can lean backwards and out of the ring. Putting a hair more distance between Adesanya and the punches coming his way. But in MMA, Pereira figured it out. Adesanya cannot lean back. (2) In their fight at UFC 281, Pereira would push him to the fence with the increased aggression and landed heavy jabs and looking for the left. And, of course, he eventually found it.

Another thing I was impressed with from Pereira was his cardio. In his fight with Artem Vakhitov in his last kickboxing match, Pereira faded over the length of the fight. That was five 3-minute rounds. This was five 5-minute rounds and Pereira looked fine. He was not as fast as he was at the onset of the fight, but that’s to be expected. His power carried through the length of the fight and put Adesanya away.

The finish came just as it did in the first fight, albeit in a different area of the cage/ring. In the kickboxing match, it was in the center of the ring and with MMA, it was against the cage. Pereira managed to trick Adesanya into brawling with him just a bit and landed the shot when it mattered. Some people thought the stoppage was early, but with Adesanya looking down and not all there, even he and his team had to admit the timing was fine.

Pereira is the new champion and he’s looking down the barrel of some great contenders that Adesanya has already beat. But styles make fights and Pereira’s wins aren’t guaranteed. Robert Whittaker, Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori have all rejoiced as the guard has been passed and their shot at the title was reopened again. And some of them can beat Pereira. Then are up-and-comers such as Bo Nickal and Andre Muniz, who are direct responses to Adesanya’s special skill set. There’s always Jiri Prochazka if he beats Glover Teixeira again at 205 pounds. With Teixeira being a teammate and mentor of Pereira, the story would be one of revenge should the UFC book the match.

The path ahead could be treacherous for Pereira. We are likely to see a rematch and, as we saw with the Vakhitov fight, if the right adjustments are made, Pereira can be beat. However, Adesanya looked worse in his rematch with Whittaker and if he doesn’t make the proper adjustments, he could lose again. But for now, our champion is Pereira, a stone-handed Brazilian who chased down Adesanya to an entirely new sport and finished the man deemed the second coming of Anderson Silva. We’re likely to see them rematch. If so, let’s hope Adesanya doesn’t snap his leg like his predecessor did.