UFC 180 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Werdum vs. Hunt
Can
Mark Hunt author the ultimate Cinderella story? | Photo: Mike
Roach/Zuffa LLC UFC/Getty
It has been more than a year since the Ultimate Fighting Championship heavyweight strap was up for grabs, as persistent injuries have kept kingpin Cain Velasquez perpetually on the sidelines. Meanwhile, Fabricio Werdum has been chomping at the bit, disposing of all four of his opponents in convincing fashion since returning to the UFC. Although he will not be fighting against the man he expected, “Vai Cavalo” will compete for the belt nonetheless, with Velasquez’s latest knee injury reason enough for the UFC to permit another interim champion.
That brings us to Mark Hunt. After getting finished in the first round in six consecutive fights -- a drought that would have made lesser men hang up the gloves for good -- Hunt has transformed from a brawling fan favorite to a legitimate contender; his only missteps in the last four years are a majority draw against Antonio Silva in a “Fight of the Year” candidate and a devastating knockout loss suffered against perennial No. 2 heavyweight Junior dos Santos.
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With Werdum and Hunt’s combined age just a day short of exactly 78 years, UFC 180 will boast the oldest title tilt in the history of the heavyweight division. Three years the elder, Hunt is on the wrong side of the clock, as well as being on the short end of the height and reach matchup. Although a late replacement, Hunt is still fresh from his demolition of Roy Nelson, so unless he was not prepared to go the distance in that fight, it is unlikely conditioning will be a factor for him here. Still, Werdum has every anthropometric advantage the Tale of the Tape can tell us, leaving “The Super Samoan” with the singular solace that he has a better finish rate in the UFC despite being undersized and having a less diverse arsenal to end fights.
Let us see how the striking data stacks up:
Make no mistake: The standup game is Hunt’s world, but at a glance, it becomes hard to arrive at that conclusion. The former K-1 World Grand Prix winner lags behind Werdum in accuracy, while maintaining a slight advantage in terms of career output. This is a typical trend; fighters who swing more tend to miss more, as well. However, if we adjust the numbers for their UFC fights only -- convenient in that they provide the most recent data and the two heavyweights have similar records with the same number of fights -- the numbers adhere to some counterintuitive voodoo. Werdum maintains his significant strike accuracy advantage by a 10.8-percent difference but also makes substantial gains in work rate, averaging 25.7 significant strikes landed per round in 44.8 attempts. Comparatively, Hunt’s gains are modest, averaging 19.2 connections out of 41.2 attempts per round. Over the course of a five-round title fight, fortune favors the fighter who is more active and more accurate.
Where “The Super Samoan” truly outshines his opponent is in the
knockdown and knockout departments. Hunt holds a dizzying
six-knockdown advantage and has also been knocked down two fewer
times. To boot, 70 percent of Hunt’s wins have come by way of
knockout, whereas only 28 percent of Werdum’s victories have ended
in such fashion. Since both men have been knocked out a combined
total of three times -- dos Santos was the culprit in two of those
-- it is hard to say either man holds a distinct “chin” advantage.
Their age is the icing on an otherwise genuinely intriguing standup
battle, since both pugilists fall in the age range of greater
knockout susceptibility. Hunt hits harder, but Werdum connects more
often. In a Newtonian twist, we will see whether mass or volume
contributes more meaningfully to total force.
Should the match hit the mat for any reason other than a fight-ending blow, the picture becomes much more lopsided:
Let us get this out of the way: Hunt should avoid going to the ground at all costs. In the aforementioned six-fight losing streak, “The Super Samoan” was submitted on five occasions. On the other hand, Werdum is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion multiple times over, with half of his wins serving as steel-reinforced stripes on his black belt. Even though nine completed submissions in 21 attempts is frighteningly effective, it understates Werdum’s proficiency; a more accurate gauge is that he has actually tried for a submission in only 12 of his 24 fights, meaning he elicits the tapout in 75 percent of the bouts in which he attempts submissions. Ironically, Hunt mirrors that number, with 75 percent of his losses being submissions. Needless to say, if this becomes a grappling match, it will likely be short-lived.
Neither Hunt nor Werdum are particularly strong wrestlers, though Hunt’s takedown defense is formidable -- perhaps one of the few advantages of having a shorter-than-average frame for his division. The point of intrigue here is how the fight would wind up on the ground. It does not take a savvy insider to know that Hunt’s chances to win will immediately plummet should he end up on his back or in Werdum’s guard, so he will fight with might and main to keep the match vertical. Werdum is hardly a takedown titan, but he has often been good for at least one takedown in a fight; that is likely all he will need to make quick work of the Polynesian power puncher. Of the 10 men who have tried to submit Hunt, six have been successful and none came from the level of grappling pedigree Werdum does.
THE FINAL WORD
Since Hunt was booked for the fight, the betting odds have slipped further apart, the most recent plateau placing Werdum as the -550 favorite, compared to Hunt’s +400 as the underdog. That gives Werdum an implied win probability of 84 percent. Without a doubt, Werdum has more ways to win this fight, assuming he can get it to the ground. On the feet, you can never overlook the technique and raw power Hunt brings to the table, even if he is not as active as Werdum. Indeed, nobody is more emblematic of the puncher’s chance than Hunt; all it takes is one strike to close the curtains on just about anyone.
Numbers are intrinsically more reliable predictors than intangibles, but the feel-good story of Hunt’s career turnaround has the potential to throw a wrench in the results. Only the second representative from Oceania to vie for a UFC title, Hunt at the very least has a better chance than Elvis Sinosic did at becoming the first champion from the region. Whoever wins will have historical precedent to overcome if he ends up in a title unification bout with Velasquez; even though the heavyweight division has had more interim champions than any other, none has gone on to defeat the original heir to become the undisputed ruler.
Will Cinderella make it to the ball, or is Werdum too crafty and multifaceted to succumb to the upset?
Raw data for the analysis was provided by and in partnership with FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed all analysis. Stinton, FightMetric and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.
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