Editor's note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.
In the lead-up to his last bout, the 26-year-old New Yorker had been a vocal critic of the way he was promoted and how often he fought. A lot of interested observers thought he was headed for greener pastures, but that plan hit a snag when other promoters declined to bring the big-money offers that would make it profitable for the young, undefeated prospect to exit the safer confines of the world’s top MMA promotion.
Just two short months ago, it seemed like a foregone conclusion the UFC was going to let one of their top young fighters walk after fighting out his contract. It’s something that happens rarely, if ever. How did we go from there to Sterling re-upping with the UFC in such a short time? What does it say about the market when an ascending star has to settle for nothing more than a token raise, even with the threat of free agency in his back pocket?
With more fighters talking about testing the market, I have to wonder how the outcome of Sterling’s negotiations will play in other fighter’s minds. Not everyone has the name recognition and championship pedigree of Benson Henderson, who recently took his services to Bellator MMA.
From sources close to the negotiations, it seems likely that the original offer for Sterling -- put on the table prior to his last fight -- included a significant increase in pay should he have earned a title fight. It also would have included pay-per-view points for any future title defense. With that stated, it seems the only thing for which Sterling fought was upfront money and perhaps the ability to tap into the potentially lucrative sponsorship market should he have decided to split.
I spoke to sources at Bellator who made it clear they didn’t view the potential signing of Sterling as a present-day addition. It would have been a project that wouldn’t have borne fruit for a year or more, and the company was not willing to spend big money on someone who didn’t add to the product right out of the gate.
I heard an opening bid from Sterling’s management to Bellator was around $40,000 to show with a $40,000 win bonus -- the same figure Sterling criticized the UFC for paying upstart Sage Northcutt. When you consider Sterling made a disclosed total of $28,000 for his last fight, it would have been a sizable raise. I expect his current deal to kick off somewhere in the $30,000/$30,000 range, maybe a little higher, which will make it imperative for the brash youngster to scrap for the title as soon as possible if he wants to realize his perceived value.
In the end, the biggest problem for Bellator was the same problem the UFC had with paying Sterling big money. He just hasn’t gotten over at this point with the fans in anywhere near the numbers he would need to justify the kind of salary he was hoping to get. It is not to say he won’t get there eventually -- he is very talented -- but for a company like Bellator that needs to get results on day one, Sterling just didn’t make sense.
As for the UFC, they held all the cards. If Sterling had walked, it would have had exactly zero effect on how the company promotes its bantamweight division. They have shown time and again that if they are going to blow up their pay structure, it is going to be for someone who brings in the massive incremental revenue they look for from their stars. Sterling may very well end up in that elite company, but as of 2016, he’s not even on the radar.
I know a lot of people, all along the spectrum, from proponents of fighters all the way to the UFC haters, were hoping to see a significant contract increase for Sterling after he chose free agency. It has to be disappointing to see how this one played out. People want to blame the promoters for not paying fighters, but the market has dictated what these guys are worth.
This underscores an even deeper issue at the heart of professional mixed martial arts. Unless a fighter is so popular that he can generate the kind of leverage only a handful have been able realize, fighters are just a dime a dozen, easily replaced parts in the machine. That the UFC was willing to walk away from an undefeated, affable and clearly talented fighter should tell you all you need to know about how much pull most up-and-coming fighters have.
It probably was a tough way to find out this sport isn’t a meritocracy, but I’m guessing Sterling has a much deeper understanding of how things work after undergoing this process. Chalk it up to a learning experience and continue to blaze a path to the top of the division -- that’s all he can do now.
Greg Savage is the Executive Editor of Sherdog.com and can be reached by email or via Twitter @TheSavageTruth.