Former heavyweight title challenger Francis Ngannou returns to the Octagon this Sunday to take on former champion Cain Velasquez in a fight where the winner will likely earn another crack at the belt.
In 2018, Ngannou went from being a terrifying young contender to an overrated hype train, then looked like a shot fighter who can’t pull the trigger and transformed back into a terrifying contender in the span of just four fights. His rise and fall, and subsequent rebirth, have been very interesting to watch and now this weekend we finally get to see just what kind of fighter he is. A win over Velasquez would put him back in title contention but a loss to the former champion puts him back to overrated hype train status.
Although he’s been in the Ultimate Fighting Championship since 2015 with nine fights inside the Octagon, we haven’t seen much from Ngannou. All seven of his wins have been finishes, with five of those being under two minutes into the first round, and we know he has the power to finish anybody in the division. However, when it comes to technique, he just hasn’t shown anything to make us believe he is a legit contender.
Ngannou is far from the most skilled striker in the division but he has gotten by with his power, aggression, and video game-like physical abilities. Early in his UFC career, he would often stay patient on the outside and occasionally come forward with a sloppy but terrifyingly powerful combo and once the opponent felt his power they usually stayed patient and played it safe. Since “The Predator” doesn't have near the experience as most fighters at the top of the rankings, his combos can be a bit predictable. Usually just coming forward with jabs and overhand rights with the occasional uppercut. However, his power is so feared that his opponents won't plant their feet and attempt to counter so these predictable leading attacks can still land at ease.
Ngannou is usually the leading attacker even when fighting at a slow pace but when opponents are foolish enough to move first he has shown to have decent countering skills for someone with his amount of experience. His back-skipping counter left hook landed multiple times against Curtis Blaydes in their first fight, and the counter right was landing on Andre Arlovski anytime he came. So far, the aurora around his powerful strikes has been enough to dissuade most opponents from coming in. However, if you watch closely he looks visibly alarmed when working off his back foot and someone like Velasquez, who is constantly in your face, might be the perfect style to outstrike “The Predator.”
So far Ngannou’s grappling has been his kryptonite and now the rest of the division knows he can’t handle himself on the ground and will try to capitalize and look for takedowns. Stipe Miocic dominated him on the ground for five full rounds and I’m afraid this fight will be much of the same. Velasquez is a far superior grappler compared to anybody the French Cameroonian has fought so let's hope he’s worked on his takedown defense, so we don’t see a repeat of the Miocic fight.