The Bottom Line: More Questions than Answers on Cyborg’s UFC Future

The Ultimate Fighting Championship and Cristiane Justino circled each other for years, unable to figure out how to deal with one another. Fighting in the UFC against Ronda Rousey was the obvious goal for “Cyborg.” However, she did think she could make 135 pounds, and there were also issues involving money. On the UFC’s end, there was obvious marketability to “Cyborg” but little desire to create a 145-pound division and skepticism about whether Justino would move the needle as much as her management thought she would.

The decision to give “Cyborg” a UFC contract while having her continue to fight in Invicta Fighting Championships essentially allowed both sides to defer on any long-term decision. Yet, a year later, the UFC decided to bring “Cyborg” to its main roster. At UFC 198 on Saturday in Curitiba, Brazil, she capitalized on the opportunity. “Cyborg” looked her usual dominant self in a quick victory over Leslie Smith and the audience reacted to her like a major star. So is it all smooth sailing from here, with “Cyborg” finally finding her home in the UFC? Not so fast. By bringing up “Cyborg” without resolving the fundamental issues that still remain, the UFC has created a tricky predicament for itself and for “Cyborg.” If anything, it may be more difficult for the two sides to come together on a long-term plan.

Justino’s performance at UFC 198 enhanced her leverage to call for big fights in the UFC and to lobby for them to be at a catchweight. While she fought in Invicta, she was under the radar for all but the most ardent MMA fans. Fighting in front of 45,000 fans and at a major pay-per-view event is a completely different situation. Justino’s UFC debut was treated as a major story by plenty of mainstream outlets, and “Cyborg” adroitly followed that up by lobbying for the Rousey fight in the media. The UFC gave her that platform, and she made the most of it.

Many hardcore fans have for years wanted to see how “Cyborg” would perform against the top female bantamweight fighters, and her performance at UFC 198 will widen the number of people curious about that question. Her quick TKO of Smith was exactly the sort of showing that created interest in “Cyborg” in the first place. The UFC women’s bantamweight division has become one of the company’s marquee divisions, and there are plenty of interesting fights for “Cyborg” beyond just Rousey at this point. Now that she has debuted in the UFC, she’s harder to ignore.

The added public pressure on the UFC to make fights for “Cyborg” would seem to put the Brazilian knockout artist in a strong bargaining position going forward. However, there are also a number of factors working in the other direction. To begin with, the big issue is going to be Justino’s weight class, and the UFC has the leverage on that point. “Cyborg” made 139 pounds, and there isn’t going to be a ton of sympathy if she is steadfast about not losing an additional three pounds for non-title bantamweight bouts. That’s not an easy cut for “Cyborg,” and she’s likely going to have to decide whether to make the full commitment to that. It’s going to be difficult for her to successfully lobby for catchweight fights against opponents who have more leverage to call for the bantamweight class.

Part of the reason that is such an uphill climb for “Cyborg” is because of the lingering elephant in the room: career-long questions surrounding her use of performance-enhancing drugs. Fans in general don’t care nearly as much about PEDs as the media, but the combination of Justino’s physique and look, her power, her gender and her 2011 drug test failure have made that a primary talking point among fans for years. Fans by and large aren’t terribly sympathetic to the idea she can’t lose some muscle mass to make 135 pounds.

That’s also an issue for the UFC from a marketing standpoint. It has worked hard to clean up the sport with an aggressive drug testing plan, and featuring “Cyborg” in a prominent role raises questions the UFC isn’t particularly fond of. Moreover, with harsh punishments for drug test failures and year-round testing, there’s a risk in prominently featuring fighters who have failed tests in the past and might fail them again in the future. The last thing the UFC wants is for a fighter to dominate a division, only to fail a test and be suspended for two years. It would take a tremendous amount of steam out of that division. All this makes the UFC less likely to want to bend over backwards for “Cyborg.”

As the UFC and “Cyborg” try to work out an arrangement moving forward, she may not be considering these factors working against her. She has overplayed her hand in the past, demanding too much and losing out on the Rousey fight she long chased. Even now, a rematch with Holly Holm is a bigger money fight for Rousey than the “Cyborg” bout. Justino likely will need to compromise to get what she wants, but it’s unclear if she’s willing to do so. If anything, the reaction she got at UFC 198 and the performance she turned in may lead her to believe the UFC has to come to her now more than ever.

The hope for most after UFC 198 is that Justino will be a regular part of the UFC going forward and we’ll get to see how she does against the best female fighters the promotion has to offer. That possibility seems like a good bet after the appetizer in Curitiba. However, there are still plenty of issues to be worked out, and the path forward is not nearly as clear as one would hope.