The Bottom Line: Adverse Reactions

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There’s an unfortunate tendency in MMA when it comes to major upsets. Analysts, fans and fighters will so often view the upset through the prism of something having gone wrong with the loser rather than the story being about what the winner did right. That can lead to upset winners not getting the credit they deserve for the skills that secured them notable wins over highly credentialed opponents.

It’s only natural that this happens. We all go into major fights with expectations about what’s going to happen. When the result differs sharply from what seemed most likely, there can be a cognitive dissonance. That often resolves itself by blaming the loser for having done something to prevent the proper result that we expected going in from having happened. “He didn’t train properly.” “She was overconfident.” “He got old.” Those explanations are so much simpler than examining what we got wrong about how these two fighters were likely to match up.

When Holly Holm knocked out Ronda Rousey, it was framed at the time more as a fluke or a manifestation of Rousey’s hubris than her being vulnerable to an elite striker with great footwork who could punish her when she attempted to clinch. When Fabricio Werdum submitted Fedor Emelianenko, it was widely perceived as recklessness by Emelianenko, when his wild ground-and-pound had proved highly effective in the past and Werdum was simply a more dangerous grappler than the Russian had encountered to that point.

All of that is to suggest we should approach Julianna Pena’s shocking upset of Amanda Nunes with a healthy dose of humility and an open mind. It’s possible that with time we will view Pena’s victory at UFC 269 on Saturday as demonstrative of her striking improvement and natural grit. With that said, it’s hard to look at the fight and not conclude what happened was more about Nunes than about Pena.

Nunes’ early career record did not befit a fighter that would go on to become likely the most accomplished female mixed martial artist of all-time. At 9-4, she was a midlevel contender before a 12-fight winning streak over the course of five years demonstrated her excellence. However, that record was not indicative of a subpar skill set. Rather, it reflected a trend that manifested itself in wins as well as losses. Nunes was extremely dangerous early in fights but had a tendency to fade as fights progressed.

Past liabilities are often correctable. Anderson Silva, much like Nunes, started his career with a solid but unspectacular record, thanks to submission losses to underwhelming opponents in Pride Fighting Championships. Many felt that vulnerability would follow Silva over the course of his career. Instead, Silva tightened up his ground game and was never submitted in MMA competition again. In fact, arguably his two most memorable wins over Chael Sonnen and Dan Henderson came by submission.

There was reason to believe Nunes had put her cardio problems behind her, as well. After winning the title, she went to the fifth round four times and is now 4-0 in fights that go past the third round. The scorecards were all tied heading into the final round of her championship bout with Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 215, and she won that fight against her immaculately conditioned opponent by pulling out that final round. Nunes has thus proved her mettle in the past. Still, her fight against Pena speaks for itself.

Nothing looked out of the ordinary for Nunes in the first round. She moved well, landed hard leg kicks and controlled Pena on the ground. Come the second round, however, Nunes already looked weathered. That’s just not to be expected of a championship fighter, let alone an all-time great. Cutting to 135 pounds after fighting at 145 the last two years likely played a role, but it was stunning how quickly it happened.

Sometimes, one big shot can change the course of a fight, even if the technique isn’t the best. That was the case when Matt Serra upset Georges St. Pierre in 2007. St. Pierre simply could not recover from a massive punch from Serra. It’s difficult from the outside to pinpoint how well each shot connects when a fighter is trying to maintain a poker face, but it certainly didn’t appear as if one Pena shot changed the course of the fight. Rather, Pena threw at Nunes with much sloppier technique than the champion but took over because the Brazilian was weathered in her movement, offense and defense. That’s an unusual observation to make about a champion fighting in the second round, but it’s a difficult one to escape.

The sense that Nunes simply had nothing left was bolstered by her quick tap to a choke attempt without Pena securing position with hooks and without the arm under the chin. Fighters of Nunes’ caliber have fought through much worse. Nunes is well-liked and respected across the sport for good reason, but this was a performance that leaves her with something to prove when she returns to action. Her power and skill have been demonstrated well over the years. Championship conditioning and championship mettle are of equal, if not greater, importance.

We often remember the greats not when they were at their most dominant but rather when they were tested and pushed through adversity to win. UFC 269 told an unflattering story about Nunes; her inevitable rematch with Pena will be an unexpectedly important bout for someone already so accomplished.