The Bottom Line: A Series of Fortunate Events

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship had finally checkmated Nate Diaz.

After over a year of posturing and off-and-on negotiations, the UFC got Diaz to agree that the last fight of his contract would be against Khamzat Chimaev, the undefeated Chechen destroyer who would surely send him out of the organization with a loss. The UFC 279 main event was a fight with a terrible risk/reward ratio for Diaz against a man a decade his junior, and that was reflected in the 12-to-1 betting odds against him. Diaz would likely get routed, and the discussion after the bout would all be about Chimaev moving on to vie for the welterweight championship.

The UFC’s strategy in these situations is often misunderstood, being framed as a purely punitive measure focused on devaluing fighters before they join its competitors. That is, of course, part of the equation, but the UFC is also looking at future negotiations with its actions. By creating a system where fighters who extend their contracts rather than going to free agency are rewarded with desirable fights and fighters who do not extend their contracts are instead given undesirable fights, it encourages all fighters to re-up when the UFC wants them to. That, in turn, diminishes the chances of free agents leaving or leveraging multiple simultaneous bids into more money.

The UFC thought Diaz would be another example of the dangers of not re-signing with the company when given the opportunity. Instead, Diaz leaves the UFC as popular as ever and could score the biggest paycheck of his career next time out, with help from an unlikely friend: the man he labeled a “lame, scared, boring rookie.” Chimaev’s egregious miss on the scale allowed Diaz to veto a fight he never wanted in the first place and instead settle on a faded, albeit talented Tony Ferguson moving up in weight after losing his last four fights. It was like preparing for the Buffalo Bills and finding out you’re getting the New York Jets instead.

Diaz and Ferguson weren’t fighting at the level they would have five years ago, but it didn’t much matter to the crowd. These are two fighters who have earned respect and love with their thrilling performances over the past decade, and the fans in Las Vegas was clearly happy with the bout they received. Diaz was generally getting the better of the exchanges and was up 30-27 on two cards when he tapped Ferguson with a guillotine in the fourth round. It wasn’t the sort of performance that suggested Diaz is ready to challenge for the UFC welterweight title—or Bellator MMA welterweight title for that matter—but it was the sort of performance that made fans want to see him next time out. What looked like potentially a dark weekend for Diaz a week ago ended up a celebration.

A fortunate turn of events shouldn’t seem that out of the ordinary for Diaz at this stage of his career. His fighting career has been blessed with good fortune from the beginning. Few fighters entered the UFC with as much built-in goodwill as he did as the brother of the perennial crowd favorite Nick Diaz. He was beloved practically by relation, and his fighting style quickly added to his appeal. He also benefitted from an unfortunate injury suffered by Manny Gamburyan attempting a takedown in “The Ultimate Fighter 5” final after the Armenian won the first round, giving Diaz an accolade that could be pointed to the rest of his career.

When Diaz suffered setbacks, it never much mattered to the fans. Some of his biggest fights were blowout losses: Rory MacDonald in front of 55,000 people, Benson Henderson for the lightweight title and Rafael dos Anjos in a UFC on Fox co-feature. In each case, it didn’t affect fans’ interest in Diaz’s fights all that much, and he was back the next time with plenty of intrigue.

Even Diaz’s biggest break came by happenstance. If dos Anjos hadn’t gotten injured so close to his fight with Conor McGregor, Diaz likely never would have gotten to fight the Irish superstar. With more time, Jose Aldo would have stepped up as the replacement. Frankie Edgar happened to be dealing with a minor injury, too, so Diaz got the call. It led to his biggest win and his biggest paychecks, and without all those circumstances, it would never have taken place, just like the circumstances on Sept. 9.

We’ll see if Diaz’s fortune holds up next month. If Jake Paul can defeat Anderson Silva, a boxing match between Diaz and Paul is likely next and has the potential to be a box-office bonanza. If, on the other hand, Silva hands Paul his first loss, the novelty of a fight between Paul and Diaz will be greatly diminished. Given how these things so often go for the favored son of Stockton, California, you shouldn’t count out Diaz getting his big fight.