Storylines to Watch at UFC 295

Few in the sport can match Jiri Prochazka when it comes to sheer horsepower. It still might not be enough to get past his latest obstacle.

Prochazka will take on Alex Pereira for the vacant Ultimate Fighting Championship light heavyweight crown in the UFC 295 headliner on Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York. The winner replaces Jamahal Hill—he relinquished the title after he ruptured his Achilles tendon—at the top of the 205-pound totem pole. Prochazka enters the Octagon on the strength of a remarkable 13-fight winning streak that now spans nearly eight years. However, his confrontation with Pereira represents his first appearance in 517 days. Prochazka has not competed since he laid claim to the undisputed light heavyweight title with a fifth-round submission of Glover Teixeira—Pereira’s mentor—at UFC 275 on June 12, 2022. A shoulder injury forced the dynamic Czech Republic native to vacate the throne soon after. Now, Prochazka steps back into the spotlight in a bid to capture what was once his.

A lengthy layoff and its potential impact on one of the UFC’s most charismatic and compelling characters is but one storyline to watch at UFC 295. Here are four more:

Heirs Apparent

A generational power shift could be unfolding in the UFC’s perpetually tumultuous heavyweight division, though much of it depends on Jon Jones. The pound-for-pound mainstay was originally slated to defend his undisputed championship opposite Stipe Miocic in the original main event, but a torn pectoral muscle suffered in training put Jones on the shelf and clouded the futures of both men. Into the void step Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall, as they are set to do battle for interim gold in the reshuffled co-headliner. Pavlovich, 31, has rattled off six consecutive victories, all of them finishes inside one round. The Eagles MMA export last appeared at UFC Fight Night 222, where he buried Curtis Blaydes with punches a little more than three minutes into their April 22 encounter. On the other side of the equation, Aspinall won nine of his past 10 bouts. The 30-year-old Team Kaobon rep last competed on July 22, when he returned from a serious knee injury to stop former M-1 Global champion Marcin Tybura with an elbow and follow-up punches in the first round of their UFC Fight Night 224 pairing. Which young heavyweight will step forward in Jones’ stead?

Opportunity Knocks

The opening Mackenzie Dern has long sought now stares her straight in the eye. The 2015 Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Fighting World Championship gold medalist will confront Jessica Andrade in a three-round women’s strawweight showcase that figures to determine future courses of action for both participants. Though she has alternated wins and losses in each of her past four outings, Dern heads into the most significant opportunity of her mixed martial arts career with an 8-3 record in the UFC. The longtime Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt last suited up on May 20, when she leaned on an all-terrain game in taking a five-round unanimous decision from former Invicta Fighting Championships titleholder Angela Hill atop UFC Fight Night 223. Andrade, meanwhile, finds herself in a tailspin. The onetime women’s strawweight champion has suffered consecutive defeats to Erin Blanchfield, Xiaonan Yan and Tatiana Suarez. Can Dern capitalize on the moment and finally climb into contention at 115 pounds?

Collision Course

No one in the lightweight division was in a hurry to face Benoit St. Denis, a French special forces paratrooper who has found the MMA scene to his liking. With that said, Matt Frevola has never shied away from contact at 155 pounds. Their featured attraction helps anchor the main card and should provide some clarity for the Top 15. St. Denis moves back into view with the wind of a four-fight winning streak in his sails. The 27-year-old last appeared at UFC Fight Night 226, where he cut down American Top Team’s Thiago Moises with punches in the second round of their Sept. 2 clash. All 12 of St. Denis’ victories have resulted in finishes. In the other corner, Frevola looks to have finally hit his stride. The Dana White’s Contender Series graduate has rebounded from a seven-second knockout loss to Terrance McKinney with wins against Genaro Valdez, Ottman Azaitar and Drew Dober. None of the three made it out of the first round against Frevola. Which lightweight hopeful will emerge with his hand raised in The Big Apple?

A Prelim in Name Only

In the only undercard scrap featuring two ranked combatants, Tabatha Ricci will put her four-fight winning streak on the line against Lupita Godinez at 115 pounds. Neither woman can afford a misstep at this stage. A judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Ricci has never lost as a strawweight, having suffered her only pro defeat against Manon Fiorot in her ill-fated promotional debut at 125 pounds two-plus years ago. She has since beaten Maria Oliveira, Polyana Viana, Jessica Penne and Gillian Robertson in succession, establishing herself as a Top 10 contender at the age of 28. Godinez now plots her own rise to relevance. A Lobo Gym stablemate of current strawweight champion Alexa Grasso, “Loopy” has compiled a 6-3 record across nine assignments in the UFC. Godinez last appeared on Sept. 16, when she submitted Elise Reed with a rear-naked choke in the second round of their UFC Fight Night 227 affair. Will the Ricci-Godinez prelim give rise to a new threat at 115 pounds?