Their first encounter resulted in one of the most debated decisions of 2009, as UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida took a controversial unanimous nod from Mauricio “Shogun” Rua at UFC 104 in October.
Sherdog.com recently gathered predictions from a number of professional fighters and trainers to gauge how they think the rematch will play out.
Matt Hamilton: I pick Shogun by decision. Now that he’s healthy, I think he gets back to his old self more each time he fights. And I just cannot condone drinking piss.
Charlie Brenneman: Shogun will win his second consecutive fight against Machida. Shogun was able to solve the riddle that was Machida, and with the last several months of Machida-specific training, I see Shogun winning this by TKO in the third round.
Marcus Davis: I think we will see some sudden changes in Machida’s style that will enable him to move and counter so he’s not so open for the leg kicks. I believe one of Machida’s best assets is his ability to control the tempo of a fight. He didn’t do that before, but I think you will see that this time. Machida by decision.
Chris Weidman: Shogun will use his powerful kicks to set up his punches, which will result in a knockout in the fourth round.
Keith Berry: I watched the first Lyoto Machida and Mauricio Rua fight live. I honestly had no idea who was going to win; they were both so tentative. But I think Machida will fix his flaws for his last game plan and come out the winner by unanimous decision.
Matt Pena: I would love to see another dominating fighter in the UFC; it’s great for everyone. I just don’t know if Rua can be that person right now. Sure, Rua has gotten better and better with each outing since arriving from Pride, but how can you not do better after his first couple performances back in the U.S.? I definitely feel that Shogun won the first match, but I’m not sure he can repeat the performance. Even if Rua did repeat the exact same performance, Machida is the fighter that had plenty of missed opportunities in their first match by being too complacent. I do feel that Machida will still look for opportunities to be elusive and make Shogun pay. However, I don’t anticipate that he will wait the whole night for the opportunity again. I expect a more aggressive Machida to pull off a stoppage. Of course, when you’re taking more chances, anything can happen. However, I have to say Machida before the sound of the fourth round.
Jaime Fletcher: I think Shogun had a good game plan for the first fight. The first fight was pretty even. That being said, I hope both fighters throw caution to the wind and go for it. In an all-out scrap, I think Shogun wins. Otherwise, Machida will just run and win on points.
Tom Gavrilos: Machida’s defense is just too sound. Rua will feel pressured to finish this time and will keep getting caught on his way in. With these kinds of strikers, anything can happen. I will take Machida by decision.
Lee Mein: Rua won the first time, but with new strategies by both guys, it could be interesting [to see] who can implement their plans. Both guys know each other’s timing now, but I think Machida will come out with a winning strategy to win for real this time.
Stephane Vigneault: Rua won the first bout, no doubt. He just has to do the same game plan but be very aggressive for the [full] five rounds. Rua over Machida -- unanimous decision.
Benji Radach: I’m pulling for Rua just because I think he squeaked out three winning rounds [in the] last fight and worked hard, and I thought he deserved the win. Not to mention he just fought a really smart fight. However, it also didn’t look like Machida was on his ‘A’ game, either. For whatever reason, Machida just looked a little tired in the later rounds. I’m sure he will make the proper changes in his game to fix this, but I’m looking forward to some change. This is hard to call, but I’m going to root for Rua again.
Mike Ciesnolevicz: I was at the first fight at UFC 104, and although I am a Machida fan, I feel he probably lost that fight. I think Machida and his team are very intelligent, and I think in this fight they will show a lot of improvement. It still might be a decision for Machida, but I feel he will win in a much more dominating fashion this time around.
Ray Elbe: Shogun won the first fight but was robbed by the McJudges. I’ll take Rua again, proving that good muay Thai beats good karate most of the time.
Nick Thompson: When I called Derrick Noble, he said that he thinks Machida [wins] via TKO.
Derrick Noble: Nick Thompson and I were discussing this fight during our post-workout bath together, and, once again, he had nothing constructive to contribute to the conversation, so I will give just my opinion. I think this fight will play out very similar to the first fight, with Shogun being slightly more aggressive and taking the decision this time.
Roli Delgado: I’m picking Shogun. I really think both fighters are great strikers and grapplers. However, style-wise, I believe Shogun proved in his last fight that he matches up well with Machida. Look for Shogun to keep the same game plan. Shogun by decision.
Robin Black: OK, I believe I was the only one who picked Shogun [the first time]. I have a feeling, after his last performance, that I won’t be alone this time. Shogun is gonna knock Machida out.
Aaron Riley: I’ll pick Shogun.
John Hackleman: I think Machida is going to revamp and revitalize his strategy, and I think he’s going to win. He’s going to use a varied combination of kicks and strikes via karate for the win.
Dan Hardy: Tough one to call. I think that Shogun will be more determined and aggressive after the judges’ decision from the last fight. Shogun by decision.
Cesar Gracie: Machida by superior strategy. I think he learned from his last fight.
Bobby Southworth: This is a tough fight to call. I feel Shogun should already be champ. That being said, I feel “The Dragon” has more adjustments to make to find a clear path to victory. 1) His conditioning. Had Shogun pressed the action even more, he would have stopped Lyoto, as The Dragon was gassing bad by round three. 2) Leg check. As a counter fighter, you need to be able to move to make your opponent miss or to take advantage of him missing -- things Lyoto’s style thrives on. His battered legs hindered him in the first fight. That elusive movement is also what allows him to throw off an aggressor’s timing. If these adjustments aren’t made, it’ll be a long, painful evening for the champ. If they are made, we’ll have a war, which will come down to 3) the chin. In this department, Shogun is the more proven [fighter], as his ability to take a shot and come back strong has been demonstrated far more often. I love both fighters, but I’m a Shogun fan. Shogun by stoppage in round three, as the mercurial UFC light heavyweight belt changes hands once again.
Bart Palaszewski: Well, I see the rematch going the same way the first fight went -- really long and uneventful. I don’t see it hitting the ground at all, and Machida’s karate skills are way too sick to get outstruck by Shogun. Rua is gonna land but not enough to win the fight. Look for Machida hitting and running, just like he does with everyone else. It’s definitely a fight to watch, but it’s gonna be long. Machida takes it in a very long five-round fight.
Adam Singer: Machida is a very strategic fighter. I believe he will make the changes necessary to win this time out … I mean, win for real. I pick Machida by decision.
Shamar Bailey: I think in the rematch Machida will feel pressure to be more offensive in this fight in order to improve upon his highly disputed decision victory. If Machida does this, it will play into Shogun’s advantage, and Shogun will win. I’m picking Shogun to build on the momentum he gained in the last fight and win by decision.
Pros who picked Shogun: 12
Pros who picked Machida: 11
Pros who could not decide: 2
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