Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 60 ‘Lemos vs. Jandiroba’

The walls of the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s Apex facility will be figuratively ablaze with the frenetic action that is set to take place within its confines this Saturday. Three ranked competitors, including two in the main event, will compete amidst this 12-fight showcase that will likely serve as summer cleaning ahead of Dana White's Contender Series. Join the UFC on ESPN 60 edition of Prime Picks as we dive into four fights that could all reasonably end in knockout, while putting a pair of headscratchers under the microscope.

Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-155)

In a division like strawweight, which historically holds one of the lowest finish rates overall, it stands out when bettors expect a 115-pound matchup to conclude before the final bell. The pairing between Lemos and Jandiroba does not fall into the overgeneralized “striker vs. grappler” archetype lazily used to describe every fight between a wrestler and a brawler. On the one hand, Jandiroba leaves something to be desired on the feet, making her more of the quintessential specialist on the mat like the days of old. On the other, Lemos is a far more evolved competitor, with venomous striking as her priority but underrated submission chops that round out her skillset. The two can cancel one another out, but one will likely establish dominance and excel at some point.

Jandiroba will need to get the fight down on the mat, or at least threaten to do so, as soon as possible. Although no woman has dropped her in the UFC thus far, she has not faced an adversary with the raw power of her countrywoman. Against a fellow submission savant Livinha Souza, Lemos crushed her in under four minutes and never let Souza get going. While she did not demolish Mackenzie Dern in her last outing, she had Dern in all sorts of trouble with her hands in the second round. It would be in the best interest of “Carcara” to pursue a level change or drive Lemos against the fencing and keep her there to sap away some of her horsepower.

While the unorthodox submission loss to Jessica Andrade via standing arm-triangle choke might make some think that Lemos’ grappling defense is a liability, this sheer power move is not something that Jandiroba could execute. It is more about finesse than brute force for the former Invicta Fighting Championships titleholder, flowing from move to move and threatening every step of the way. Lemos can hang on the mat, but she is susceptible to being controlled by a more skilled ground fighter, a la Weili Zhang. If Jandiroba can wear her out and find a submission, or if she runs out of options and gets decked, it will likely play out in the later stages of the fight. If one feels strongly about one of these women getting it done, couple this over with that combatant at either +240 for Lemos or +130 for Jandiroba.

Steve Garcia (-145)

When it comes to a pair of brick-fisted sluggers, a glance at the numbers may not hurt. Both Garcia and Seung Woo Choi prefer to throw hands, with 18 knockouts between them and zero submissions. In their combined UFC runs of 15 bouts, Garcia is the only one of the two even to try to perform a sub. Unless “Mean Machine” attempts to wrangle Choi to the mat after either getting his chin checked or to throw a wrench in the works, this featherweight affair should be contested on the feet. If it stays that way, Garcia, on paper, should have the upper hand as the far more accurate and active striker of the two. Since Choi does not make up for speed or volume with power, Garcia should be favored—perhaps at odds even higher than they are now.

Both fighters are not indestructible, and their knockdown ratios are not immaculate. Garcia hits and gets hit, and the same can be said for Choi. “Sting” is an apt nickname for the South Korean, as that is the power he possesses while sporting the ability to put a foe’s lights out with one seminal blow. Garcia can say the same, with clean knockouts piling up on his recent ledger. A bolder choice for this matchup would be to put down on the Jackson-Wink MMA fighter winning by knockout at +120, but this would remove the option of Choi managing to stay elusive enough and fire back with shots that keep Garcia from finishing the job.

Bill Algeo (-165)

There is no such thing as a lock in a sport as tumultuous as MMA. To guarantee one person will undoubtedly prevail over another would be a fool’s errand. Anyone could slip on a figurative banana peel, tweak their knee shooting in on or defending a takedown, or sustain a gnarly cut on their eyebrow courtesy of a swiping blow. When anything can happen, it often does in the cage. That said, odds are set and shift for a reason, and favored fighters statistically win a majority of their fights. In the case of Algeo against Doo Ho Choi, it is a bit of an odd situation as to why Algeo is not a favorite above -200, which makes him a choice option come fight night.

UFC Hall of Famer Choi earned a spot in the hallowed hand-picked halls by slinging hellacious leather for 15 unearthly minutes against Cub Swanson. The two rang one another’s bells often, connecting with 188 significant blows throughout the titanic tilt. Unfortunately for Choi, that superb showing took place in 2016, and he has never looked the same. Now 33, “The Korean Superboy” is fighting for his place on the roster, and his hand has not been raised in the Octagon since 2016. Algeo’s entire UFC run has come since then, and fairly recent wins over marauders like Spike Carlyle and Joanderson Brito—the former in 2020, but Algeo’s style has not changed a great deal—shows that he can handle a reckless brawler while not getting lost in the moment. By staying at the end of his reach, picking his shots more carefully and flustering Choi with frequent stance switches and a higher-than-average volume, Algeo should be able to get past his opponent comfortably.

Brian Kelleher (+165)

As a fighter one defeat away from the vaunted Sinosic Line, where Elvis Sinosic infamously won his first fight and then lost his next six in the UFC, Cody Gibson should not be a -250 betting favorite against anyone in the Octagon. Perhaps the line is what it is because Kelleher has lost three in a row, all by first-round stoppage, albeit against solid opposition of Umar Nurmagomedov, Mario Bautista and a more mature Cody Garbrandt. No matter the age or wear-and-tear on Kelleher, he still can jump guard for a guillotine like the best, and three of Gibson’s four submission losses are to this maneuver. Kelleher may not be as dangerous as he once was, but this is the perfect foe to get one more win and spoil Gibson’s third stint in the promotion.

Should Gibson prevail, it will be his first UFC win in over 10 years, among the longest gaps between first and second wins with the promotion. If he can take solace in recent performances, he threw down with Brad Katona in a sensational three-round affair, hearkening back to the days of Forrest Griffin-Stephan Bonnar for their finale of “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 31. While he did not get a win, Katona currently has gears that Kelleher may not be able to push as he advances in age. The line on the fight ending inside the distance at -155 is reasonable, and it might conclude in the first round due to defensive lapses both men currently hold. Even if it may be justified that Kelleher is the underdog, the line should be closer to a pick-‘em than one of the broadest betting disparities of the evening.