Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 55 ‘Nicolau vs. Perez’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship went to the scrap pile to put its latest card together, as it does not dazzle from a name perspective. Wide but justifiable lines litter the billing, with few underdogs poised to spring mighty upsets. Join the UFC on ESPN 55 edition of Prime Picks as we take far less risk than the last big show and instead go with chalk all the way down.

Matheus Nicolau (-180)

The UFC made a clear decision when selecting Alex Perez to replace Manel Kape against Nicolau for this main attraction. It might be possible that other options could not make a quick turnaround, but this flyweight affair massively favors Nicolau. A former title challenger, Perez has not earned a win since 2020 while still keeping a Top 10 spot in the UFC’s rankings. Perez has been a cursed individual when competing in the Octagon, and there is no guarantee this headliner will stay intact come fight day. If it does, Nicolau at under -200 is a choice option, given that he should possess advantages across the board.

Of the two, Perez is the slightly more active striker, but that also comes with a diminished accuracy, as he throws anything at the wall to see if it sticks. He can hit hard, but Nicolau’s eight knockdowns in his UFC tenure prove the Brazilian packs a greater wallop. Nicolau’s takedown defense is superior on paper, and he is a more defensively sound competitor on the feet. Neither man is afraid of the fight hitting the mat, but Nicolau may have the safety valve to employ some wrestling if things go awry.

For Perez to get by, he will likely need to chip and potshot away, chewing up Nicolau’s left leg with kicks and dancing out of harm’s way from powerful counters. A straight-out punch-for-punch encounter will likely end poorly for the former Tachi Palace Fights champion, although both men have seen most of their losses in the first round. It could be an explosive few minutes or a thriller across all 25, but Nicolau should gain the upper hand and roll downhill as time passes. Everyone can get caught, but Nicolau should have the wherewithal to roll with what Perez throws at him and give it back in spades ahead of a clear-cut victory.

Ryan Spann Wins Inside Distance (-175)

If Spann does not walk into something silly, like a wild overhand right from Bogdan Guskov, he should be able to steamroll his less-experienced adversary. “Should” is the operative word, as Spann is sometimes the victim of his own poor in-cage decisions. Whether lowering himself into the jaws of Nikita Krylov’s awaiting triangle choke or getting a little too overzealous against Anthony Smith—in their first pairing, not the second, tepid affair—Spann has himself to blame for numerous defeats on his ledger. Luckily for Spann, Guskov is not a threat anywhere the fight goes. Only standing and banging is where he will likely be at risk.

Spann should have the significant advantage when it goes to the mat and undoubtedly has better submission skills. Drilling down to suggest that Spann punts Guskov with a head kick or snatches a guillotine choke is a step too far, as the catch-all of a stoppage win for “Superman” is good enough. Both stoppage losses for the Uzbekistan native have come in the opening frame, which works for Spann as he tends to get the job done in that period. In making this bout, the UFC expected someone would get smoked. Unless he makes a catastrophic mistake, it will be Spann doing the smoking.

Austen Lane-Jhonata Diniz Does Not Start Round 2 (-190)

Another heavyweight slobberknocker will grace the main card, and the only speed for these two is full ahead. Durability and defense fly out the window when they engage in reckless, furious brawls. A former NFL player, Lane has seen his fair share of brutal losses as he clawed his way to the UFC, while Diniz has not encountered the type of opposition to slow him down much. There is every possibility that the Brazilian walks Lane down and clobbers him in two minutes. Still, the potential for Lane to get lucky during a brawl makes this time-based option more appetizing than a straight pick for one over the other.

Diniz has yet to go to the second round, although he is just six bouts into his pro tenure. On the other hand, the Floridian has escaped Round 1 on three occasions after 17 professional outings, and all four of his losses have come by first-round knockout. Lane may be taller and rangier, but it will not matter if Diniz crowds him, chin first, and swings for the fences. Lane will throw back, and once the Andy Capp-esque dust cloud dissipates, one of these heavyweights will be down and out before five minutes elapse.

Uros Medic Wins Inside Distance (-150)

In a series where we like to shoot our proverbial shots and advocate for the big plus-money fighters, this week is far more muted because no one seems to jump off the page as an especially live dog. Will the soon-to-be 40-year-old Rani Yahya hit his +325 line, or will Victor Henry’s catch wrestling run him over? Even World Extreme Cagefighting faithful might have a hard time picking the aging Brazilian in that one. How many will go out on a limb for Marnic Mann at +260 or Na Liang to finally get her hand raised as a +340 underdog? Very few, most likely. Instead of all those unappetizing plus options, we wrap up the chalky analysis by picking a decisive victor in a trap fight. While Medic should be able to put Tim Means away before the final bell, “The Dirty Bird” has that veteran savvy and craftiness that might throw a wrench in the works.

Medic, formerly training out of Anchorage, Alaska, has shifted gears to California to join Kings MMA. What has not changed is his pure killer instinct, as the Serbian-born competitor has still yet to go the distance as a pro. That statistic might change in the future when tackling someone more durable who does not fall straight into a triangle choke or wilt when absorbing a few clean punches, but Means does not appear to be the name that will break that streak. Win or lose, the former King of the Cage champion has carved out a solid living as an all-action UFC welterweight, never rising to contender status but always putting on a good show. He can be bullied, and he can be walked down and blasted. “The Doctor” is not entirely surgical with his approach. Instead, Medic hacks and slashes until the work is done. If Means can lure him into a low-intensity kickboxing match, he can get through it, but it should be a rough first round, no matter what.