Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 51 ‘Luque vs. Dos Anjos’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will continue its seemingly never-ending stretch of events back at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. It may be a fight card that prompts some late summer cleaning: 15 of the 26 competitors have lost their most recent fights, with eight of them on losing streaks. Three others make their company debuts. With so many trying to right the ship, risks will be taken, and great rewards may be had by both the competitors and those monetarily predicting their successes. Join the UFC on ESPN 51 edition of Prime Picks as we look to cash in on a coinflip matchup, ride the wave of momentum from a muay thai striker and question whether the line is accurate in a preliminary contest.

Rafael dos Anjos (-115)

This all-Brazil main attraction is a pick’em for a reason. The red corner will feature the younger, faster man who has a significant reach advantage and is heavier hitter in Vicente Luque. He has taken a year off to recover—recently, the MMA community learned it was due to a brain hemorrhage—and has been cleared to go again. It is entirely possible that this recovery time helped him heal up any other lingering issues and get back to his old self again. Ever the finisher, Luque is aggressive at times to a fault, and he is dangerous no matter where the fight goes. All of this, plus an overall size advantage, makes him a tough fighter to bet against. Despite all this, the grinder in former champ dos Anjos may be the smarter play in this even-money affair.

Both Brazilians prefer to be the bully instead of the bullied, and even as the smaller man in the cage at 170 pounds, dos Anjos still has seen fair success in the division. The only fighters at the weight class to top him have been able to do what he does to other people—grind on them, pin them to the cage, body lock to trip them to the floor and make them miserable. The four at that weight range in Colby Covington, Kamaru Usman, Leon Edwards and Michael Chiesa all followed a type of grappling path that Luque is not equipped to replicate for five rounds. Luque’s takedown defense is far from perfect, and Belal Muhammad showed how to take his weapons away with one single takedown each round. Dos Anjos may not be at Muhammad’s level as a wrestler, but he fights to his best advantages.

For Luque to pull off the win, he must keep this at kickboxing range, putting hands on dos Anjos while moving constantly. It is imperative for him to stay away from the cage wall, and above all, he will need to make dos Anjos pay any time he chooses to close the distance. If and when dos Anjos puts him on his back, it will be up to Luque to not play Brazilian jiu-jitsu off his back and hunt for low-percentage submissions. The first round will unquestionably be the most perilous for dos Anjos, so it will be up to him to neutralize the immediate adrenaline surge of his countryman by making it dirty. Both fighters celebrate exceptional durability, but there are still very glaring questions about how Luque will actually be come fight night. If the bout reaches the championship rounds, it will sway even further in dos Anjos’ favor, as he excels in late stages; Luque has been to Round 5 exactly one time and did not fare well beyond the 15-minute mark. With the two even money, the value sits on the side of the former champion.

Khalil Rountree (-170)

When Rountree is on, he is on. The Tiger Muay Thai training over in Phuket, Thailand, has leveled up the Season 23 finalist of “The Ultimate Fighter” from a hard hitter into a potential contender. On a three-fight winning streak, with two knockouts along the way, it is not so much the hands as it is the legs of “The War Horse” that have done the most damage. One of the worst beatings in any UFC fight came courtesy of the man back in 2019, when he pummeled Eryk Anders and nearly picked up a 10-7 round along the way. The last few years, Rountree has not fallen victim to not throwing enough, and it is this version of the 33-year-old that should have more than enough to stave off heavyweight expat Chris Daukaus.

For a competitor who celebrates a knockout rate of 92%, Daukaus’ power might be somewhat overstated. On the largest stage, he was not so much a one-hitter quitter as someone who would blitz and not let off until the other fighter folded. This carried him to a four-fight winning streak but also lifted him to the echelon of the division that put a hurting on him in a hurry. The UFC is doing Daukaus no favors—he has lost his last three, all by knockout—by matching him against a technical striker like Rountree. In order to score the upset, Daukaus will have to get right in Rountree’s face and not let up, keeping to a close boxing range that does not allow the Los Angeles native to unleash many leg strikes. Before the final bell rings, Rountree will likely batter the former heavyweight with an accumulation of damage. If one has faith in the former Philadelphia police officer moving down in weight and bringing his strength with him, look no further than Daukaus landing the knockout at anywhere from +240 to +350 depending on the book.

Polyana Viana Wins Inside Distance (+250)

Given their trajectories, coupled with the multifaceted toolkit she brings to the cage, it may come as a surprise that “Dama de Ferro” is this significant of an underdog. Losing three of her first four in the Octagon may still be in the memories of some bettors, even though she has rendered three first-round finishes in her last four outings. The competition for Viana may not have been sterling, but the way in which she snared armbars or cold-cocked Jinh Yu Frey should put a little more respect on her name. The 100% finish rate on her ledger leads us to pushing for her to land the stoppage rather than the outright upset (+160), although it risks the youthful Iasmin Lucindo making it to the final bell.

Of her 13 victories, Viana has authored 12 of those in Round 1, so she could very well be an early stoppage-or-bust play. Should the strawweight pairing reach the second round and push on, Lucindo likely will be gaining strength and picking up the pace. It is not that Viana fatigues late—she has actually outstruck her opponents in all three of her UFC decision losses—but rather that she seems to run out of ideas if her traps and tricks do not work the first time. Lucindo should do her utmost to keep the fight on the feet, while also pressuring Viana and making her fight off her back foot. If Lucindo can shut down what Viana is offering, the alternate pick of the 21-year-old picking up a decision victory at +165 could be worth a swing if youth is valued more than high-level experience.

DOUBLE PLAY (-125)

Terrance McKinney-Mike Breeden Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-285)

Marcus McGhee-J.P. Buys Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-300)

Courtesy of a pair of short-notice switcheroos, two fights on the prelims will almost certainly bring dramatic violence right out of the gate. With both bouts likely ending inside the distance, a duo of under plays may be the best way to maximize earning potential, pairing them for a juicy parlay. McKinney has struggled of late, seemingly hitting walls that shut him down, but this fight against a scuffling Missouri native in Breeden may be just what the doctor ordered. Bordering on prohibitive favorite territory, even McKinney getting a finish provides a minus line. On the off chance that Breeden is able to break his own slump given that McKinney does not have a full training camp and may gas himself out in a matter of minutes, the under of 1.5 might be safer than going for “T. Wrecks” outright or in a prop.

Like McKinney, McGhee is a vicious hitter who sometimes swings himself into trouble. South Africa’s Buys may not be the one to test him accurately, unless he uses his credentialed wrestling to full effect. Thus far, Buys has not been unable to get much going in the Octagon, and while he has lost to decent talents, he has been outmatched across the board. The MMA Lab product may not quite come out as recklessly aggressive as McKinney, but McGhee’s power at this weight should give serious problems to the likely undersized Buys. It does not help the stock of Buys that he has suffered eight knockdowns in his three UFC fights, and McGhee may very well increase that number by a tick or two before all is said and done. On the off chance that Buys can turn things around after over a year away, his own arsenal could threaten “The Maniac” and catch him when he is out of position. With the under in both bouts allowing for the instance of Breeden or Buys pulling off the upset, the two should hit and the fans inside the Apex should have something to cheer about.