The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday keeps on pushing with a trip back to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, and betting lines for the card range from pick’ems to over -1000 odds. Unfortunately, the event lost two decent options on Thursday with underdog Miles Johns and favorite Zhalgas Zhumagulov, so we will make due with fewer palatable lines than expected. Join the UFC on ESPN 47 edition of Prime Picks, where we suggest a few fights that are not as close as the betting public observes and narrow down a giant favorite into nearly even money.
Marvin Vettori (-125)
A menacing power striker is just the kind of matchup that Italy’s Vettori likes to feast on. With a high work rate, infallible chin and just enough head movement and footwork to stay afloat, Vettori can march headlong into the fray and take everything a hard-swinging opponent throws at him. “The Italian Stallion” has never been dropped since joining the UFC roster in 2016, even as he has taken on strikers like Israel Adesanya, Paulo Costa, Roman Dolidze, Kevin Holland and Robert Whittaker. While Vettori can get outhustled by superior craftsmen, Jared Cannonier does not present that type of challenge. Instead, Cannonier will be throwing full power for two rounds, with the second likely his most dangerous. Barring an unlikely outcome of Vettori getting his leg chopped down early or caught with a balance-disrupting uppercut, he can roll downhill and ruin the day of a fellow former title challenger in Cannonier.
Cannonier’s reputation as a devastating finisher developed largely from his initial move to 185 pounds, as he wiped out David Branch, Anderson Silva and Jack Hermansson in rapid succession. In all three, it was not his volume or the fact that he possesses one-hitter quitter power but rather the placement of his blows. Whether a well-aimed uppercut on Hermansson, kicks to the exact same spot on Silva’s calf or a slick right hand on the break, it is Cannonier’s timing that makes him a threat. Clipping foes at just the right moment, like a step-in elbow as a fatiguing Derek Brunson hunts for a takedown, gives “The Killa Gorilla” that extra oomph to give someone pause.
Despite his reputation as a mad brawler with low fight IQ who roars during fights, Vettori is fairly cerebral in his approaches. Whether it means taking a speedy kickboxer out of his element by throwing him to the ground nearly a dozen times, or just touching his adversary while he swings for the bleachers, Vettori is no slouch when the cage door closes. Cannonier’s best chances for victory start early and diminish the longer the fight goes, as Vettori has no problem going five rounds. Meanwhile, Cannonier, a former heavyweight, can let his foot off the gas around the third frame. A big right hand from Cannonier could play the equalizer, but it would similarly not be surprising if Vettori opts to clinch or wrestle for the first seven or eight minutes until the greatest danger has passed him by. With a whole main event to work, Vettori can draw things out and stay constant even when Cannonier fades.
Arman Tsarukyan Wins by KO/TKO (-130)
In the co-main attraction, a streaking lightweight contender in Tsarukyan sits at comical, prohibitively favored odds ranging from -1000 to even -1250. The turnaround for “Ahalkalakets” was not as quick as he had hoped, with his matchup against Renato Carneiro falling through before it could go down in April. The UFC tosses Tsarukyan a bone in this scheduled pairing against Joaquim Silva, as the latter has only had his hand raised once since 2018. While more talented grapplers like Islam Makhachev and Mateusz Gamrot have thwarted Tsarukyan’s immediate plans for the belt, “Netto BJJ” is a far softer touch than most would expect the ranked Russian to face. With a recent propensity to try to pound fighters out and zero submission attempts after eight Octagon appearances thus far, if Tsarukyan does end things early, it will be by strikes.
Despite the letters of BJJ in his nickname, Silva, at least on the major stage, is not remotely a submission threat. In fact, it is his wild strikes that may be more illustrative of where he resides in the division, as he tends to throw everything into his power punches and occasional knees. This leaves him open to not only counters, as shown by Ricky Glenn, but takedowns like the ones Reza Madadi used to control him for some time. Tsarukyan could duck one looping left hand into a double-leg entry and plant Silva on his back, and then, it is clobbering time. The Russian is vicious on top with his assault, and as long as he does not get complacent and settle for a win by decision, he can do the damage to end the fight before the final bell.
Dan Argueta (+155)
With the options notably slimming on fight week, we shift our focus to an underdog who might be flying under the radar. Both Argueta and his opponent, Ronnie Lawrence, recently encountered obstacles that may have shown their respective ceilings, or at the very least shown the difference in levels of skills. For Argueta, it came on short notice to the underheralded Damon Jackson, while Lawrence found himself stifled by Saidyokub Kakhramonov, with the latter oddly no longer on the UFC roster. The difference thus far is that Argueta bounced back with a full camp against the hard-charging Nick Aguirre, and he took the newcomer to the scorecards in a dominant effort with grappling on full display. Barring a stalemate that transforms the pairing into a kickboxing affair, Argueta can show off his strength against the favorite.
Lawrence hit the brick wall of Kakhramonov nearly a year ago, as he found his back on the mat a whopping 10 times across their 15-minute encounter. It is usually “The Heat” who puts on those kind of smothering, practically drowning performances, amassing 14 takedowns in his previous two UFC wins, so it turned out to be a rude awakening. While Argueta did hit the ground courtesy of Jackson, his active guard and propensity to force scrambles even when fatiguing proved useful. Should Lawrence drag “The Determined” to the canvas, he will need to keep him there or at least slow the underdog down with mat returns. Sitting on top looking for strikes could make him posture up to let Argueta attempt a sweep; and it is those kinds of openings that may present themselves and give avenues for victory for Argueta. While Argueta on his back was constantly moving, Lawrence seemed at times out of options when he was the nail and not the hammer.
Carlos Hernandez (+110)
In lieu of a standard prediction/valuation blurb about a slight underdog in Hernandez, this final play will come in the form of a miniature FF-Files analysis of his opponent: Denys Bondar. To put it mildly, the Ukrainian has engaged in some subtle record manipulation, though not to the extent of countryman Askar Mozharov. Another database lists the man called “Psycho” at 16-4, while a third sees him at 16-3. Both of those are inflated by a pair of wins, double-counting rightful finishes of Lev Ambarcumian and Ghenadie Gitlan actually achieved in 2018. The record of Bondar’s opposition has been less than stellar as he built his way towards a seemingly respectable resume, and just a few fights ago, Bondar toyed with a 0-2 Sergey Kupin for the better part of two minutes. While some fighters develop when facing overmatched opponents, Bondar is not one who seems like he will rise to the occasion again.
The Azerbaijani league Ased Fight Club got in a groove of running 20, 30 or even 40-fight events a couple years ago. Foolishly, it thought it could make some money by sliding in one or two nonexistent fights on the lineup sheets it would submit to recordkeepers to help boost a fighter's record, expecting none would be the wiser. Somewhere on the way, they got greedy, shifting from one or two fake fights on a billing to an entire imaginary early slate of “prelims” to an entire card that actually never happened. The second of those three is where Bondar picked up false victories, as those holding the data forts struggled to accurately chronicle the bizarre league of the Bukovel Free Fight Cup—which ran with an odd raised stage and a sneakily modified ruleset. See if you can spot Bondar winning two fights on this video from an event that is Ased FC’s version of Dana White’s Contender Series. Spoiler alert: You can’t. Why? Because he was never there in Azerbaijan. With multiple verified wins coming under borderline MMA rulesets and others that never actually occurred, confidence should be extremely low in Bondar, low enough, in fact, to give Hernandez an honest look. After all, Hernandez officially won an ultra-close decision over Victor Altamirano, who is head and shoulders above anyone Bondar has managed to dispatch.