Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 43 ‘Vera vs. Sandhagen’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday ships off to San Antonio, bringing with it a battle many have had circled on their calendars for months. This well-matched event features surprising lines, where there is no favorite currently at -300 or above; and on the other hand, five matches see odds at -150 or less for the favored competitor. Check out this UFC on ESPN 43 edition of Prime Picks, where we turn to a veritable Tasmanian devil of offense at surprising plus money, place faith in a storied veteran once more, scope out where one of the bigger underdogs has some value and pinpoint an ultraviolent clash bound for a finish.

Marlon Vera (+145)

Power versus volume will be on display for five rounds, if needed, between Vera and Cory Sandhagen. For a time, this bantamweight collision was set for the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, until company brass realized this potential brawl for the ages should be placed in front of a horde of screaming fans. The AT&T Center can seat over 18,000, and with luck, it will be packed with ravenous, bloodthirsty fans cheering every time a blow lands; and there will be many of them to cheer. At this stage in his career, Ecuador’s Vera is on a different level, and Sandhagen is meeting him at an inopportune time. While this should more likely be a coinflip, it is understandable while the taller, rangy Sandhagen is a favorite, but not to this level. Vera is more than a flier because he has a clear path to victory that he will most likely secure.

Sandhagen fights best when he can dictate his own range and stay at the end of his punches, with sharp jabs leading into complicated combinations. Whether in winning or losing efforts, “The Sandman” can drown opponents with simply how much he throws at them, as he changes patterns and tempo at the flip of a switch. Checking leg kicks for Sandhagen will be key, even though he changes stances frequently, as Vera can chew up those longer limbs. A brawl would also work to his disadvantage, and he should pick his shots and not get too wild against the ferocious Vera. This is not an impossible stylistic clash for Sandhagen, but given how Vera has performed against competitors similar in stature and nature, it is one that the Team Oyama product can feast on.

Vera’s kicks will set up other strikes, especially if he goes low and rips the body before launching them up high. This caught Dominick Cruz unaware, and the normally more defensively sound competitor could not hold up to Vera’s constant pounding. “Chito” cannot rely on single, home run strikes in hopes of putting Sandhagen away. Instead, the third or the fourth can do the real damage while Sandhagen backs up. It may surprise some that the two bantamweights, despite the height differential, share the same reach, but Sandhagen utilizes it to its fullest while Vera is more than happy to fight in a phone booth. Vera will eat one to throw two in return, but he cannot find himself trying to constantly get one back on the active Sandhagen, or he will lose sight of his goal. The American’s chin is made of sterner stuff than most, so Vera might not achieve a finish on his way to victory, but he will not need to do so as he resides in plus-money territory.

Holly Holm Wins by Decision (-110)

It is now or never for the former champion, who just signed a six-fight deal with the promotion that feels like more of a lockdown contract than one she expects to complete. The 41-year-old shares an identical record to her opponent, Yana Santos, who will be competing for the first time in almost 20 months thanks to starting a family with Thiago Santos. Both bantamweights are looking for wins to remain in contention, and a lot is on the line. If Holm wins, outside of the two main event competitors, she may be the closest to a title shot. While Holm is known for her spectacular head kicks, she has not finished a fight since 2017 and instead relies on her ever-slowing footwork and movement to take nip-tuck wins. It may be enough to get past Santos, and Holm may become the first woman to win on the scorecards against the Russian in the UFC. With Holm a prohibitive favorite, the prop on her claiming the decision is more tenable than turning back the clock to knock out the former Invicta Fighting Championships titleholder.

All of Santos’ UFC wins have come by decision, while all of her losses are by stoppage. Brought in as a sacrificial lamb to lose to Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino in 2018, Santos slowly cobbled together a legitimate resume to sit as a Top 10 bantamweight even after taking maternity leave. It is anyone’s guess how Santos will perform after this much time away, but she has never been the fastest, most active or offensively minded competitor. Plenty of time spent jockeying for position in the clinch, plus solid takedown defense, has allowed Santos to stay in most of her fights while hardly being appointment television. It might not be thrilling to watch, but based on her last fight—a split decision loss to Ketlen Vieira where the lion’s share of media scorers believed Holm won—“The Preacher’s Daughter” still has enough left in the tank to get this one done. If she does, it is more likely she will need all three rounds to so, as opposed to setting up one picture-perfect shin to the chin.

Andrea Lee (+225)

At 34 years of age, time is arguably Lee’s biggest enemy, not any individual opponent. Still, her losses in the promotion have been generally respectable: a pair of razor-close split decisions to Joanne Wood and Lauren Murphy that could or should have gone her way, a nailbiter against Roxanne Modafferi where some scorers also gave it to Lee and a clear-cut defeat to Viviane Araujo. While her wins have come against fringe contenders again and again, the jury is still very much out on where adversary Maycee Barber sits on the 125-pound totem pole. “KGB” can put a pace on anyone, and her aggression can wear others out. Barber may be on a hot streak, but her triumph over Miranda Maverick remains debatable to this day. While Barber should be a reasonable favorite, at over -250, the value is all on Lee.

“The Future” best excels when she is the bully. Many of the women Barber has encountered have allowed her to dictate the terms of the match, and this puts them at an immediate disadvantage that they have not often overcome. Lee is the kind of brick that hits back, with well-rounded skills that can serve as a real litmus test and potential trap fight for the youngster. The flyweight division is typically not kind to the elder competitors, and Lee is 10 years older, but she does not appear to have hit the wall or fallen off the age cliff. The Louisiana native can spring the upset by being the busier woman, even forcing Barber to the mat to make the young lady fight off her back. At minimum, Lee is worth a flier, as Barber should not be that high a favorite against anyone in the Top 15.

Chidi Njokuani-Albert Duraev Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-210)

The Cinderella story of “Chidi Chidi Bang Bang” came to a dramatic halt in September, when Gregory Rodrigues turned a corner, landed the takedown and pounded Njokuani out. Before then, Njokuani had ripped open a gruesome cut on Rodrigues’ forehead that could or should have been a fight-ender, and he showed the kind of power that can change the game against anyone. As a fighter versed in kickboxing, however, his ground game is and was susceptible that night, and “Robocop” survived to overcome him thanks to that glaring deficiency. Duraev can do the same thing, but the hittable Russian will be in the gunnery range the entire time until he decides to employ his grappling.

It is rare for me to select a line above -200, because the value is not always as clear-cut and a loss means a heftier investment has fallen through. The moneyline on either competitor is a bit suspect, as Duraev around +140 might be worth it if one expects him to play to his strengths. On the other hand, Njokuani could knock him clean out before Duraev manages to land a takedown. Both men have tools that can not only shut down but completely disable the other. If this fight goes the distance, it would be a disappointment as the heaviest bout on the card. A stoppage materializing at the 2:30 mark of Round 3 or earlier may be the safest available, because it promises a finish while not losing out if the midpoint of the second frame is spent with Duraev racking up control time or Njokuani chipping away from the outside. One way or another, this pairing should not end in the hands of the judges.