Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 42 ‘Thompson vs. Holland’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will take in some sunshine in Orlando, Florida, which hosts the last non-Las Vegas attraction of 2022—one where at least one victor may claim he wants to go to Disney World afterward. Jam packed with a record-tying 15 fights, there is undoubtedly a little something for everyone on the bill. The UFC on ESPN 42 edition of Prime Picks is practically all about old lions pulling off vintage performances against perfect opponents, while also touching on an obvious play between two burly brawlers.

Stephen Thompson (+142)

Our unintentional theme this week is one of aging veterans still showing enough life to remain competitively viable. Thompson has been largely written off for quite some time, only to pop back up and surprise plenty of onlookers when putting on a show. Still, a karate-based style like that of “Wonderboy”—one heavily reliant on movement and timing—rarely ages well. In a smidge over two months, Thompson will turn 40, but the South Carolinian still wants to stay relevant and in the hunt for a championship. While powerful grapplers Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad ruined his 2021 campaign, Thompson is returning after nearly a year off to face a fellow striker. This matchup is one that Thompson has feasted on historically, and the wheels do not appear completely off of the bus. There is value in “Wonderboy” at plus money against Kevin Holland.

Holland will come in sporting several natural advantages outside of the fact that he is in his competitive prime and Thompson appears to be in the twilight of his career. Holland measures six inches longer in the arms, and if leg reach were regularly measured, he may have Thompson beat there, as well. “Wonderboy” remains one of the most skillful strikers in the sport to properly utilize range, but he is going to experience something he has not yet encountered inside the Octagon: someone far longer than himself. Vicente Luque held a slightly greater wingspan, but Thompson never struggled with it. If Holland can stay at the tail end of his fists and feet, he could outdistance the distance fighter.

Beyond a head-scratching hometown decision for Darren Till in Liverpool, England, in 2018, striker-versus-striker contests involving Thompson trend his way. Thompson had battered Anthony Pettis on the feet for two rounds before “Showtime” pulled off the one-in-a-million Superman punch off the cage wall. Younger, surging opponents like Luque and Geoff Neal were staved off and beaten to the punch; and Thompson did not fall victim to the fifth-round blitz that those Till and Tyron Woodley put on him when he faced Neal less than two years ago. While Holland’s individual strikes may have more of an impact, landing cleanly on Thompson is still another story, even as the latter approaches the age of 40. Unless Holland mixes in ample wrestling to throw Thompson off his game, this standup affair has all the makings of an upset, playing out across five rounds while Jack Black cheers for “Wonderboy” on the sidelines.

Sergei Pavlovich-Tai Tuivasa Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-200)

Neither combatant in this heavyweight slugfest exceeds the age of 30, making them the young guns in this breakdown. While other narrower options like “Fight Doesn’t Start Round 2” see lower minus odds, they may not be available in most sportsbooks. A simple under, which expects that the fight will not reach 7:30—or 2:30 of the second round—is perhaps the best and safest option given the surrounding upset central picks. Put simply, “fist go boop” is likely the best way to approach this big man slobberknocker, as Pavlovich and Tuivasa contain one-shot, fight-ending power that can and almost certainly will switch off someone’s lights. A clean knockout, not simply one ruled by TKO, is very much in play.

When stacking up the resumes of the two fighters, the Russian posts an 81% knockout rate, with all 13 of his finishes coming in the first round. On the other hand, Tuivasa also has performed 13 knockouts without a submission to his credit, and this accounts for a stoppage rate of 93%. The boisterous Aussie has earned a pair of knockouts outside the opening frame, but none of those exceeded 2:30 of Round 2. While Tuivasa has never before lost any faster than exactly 7:30 of a fight, Pavlovich’s only career defeat came in Round 1 against Alistair Overeem. Chins will be tested, checked and likely cracked. If an available line crops up allowing for a knockout in this fight, regardless of the winner, that is also a worthwhile endeavor; some props for “Fight Ends by Knockout” are made available for certain matches.

Clay Guida (+147)

The book has been written on Guida for years. “The Carpenter” has a very specific style and approach to combat, and he rarely varies from that gameplan. If a fighter can catch him early in a scramble, he is extremely vulnerable against dry submissions. A loss would place the venerable vet into .500 territory inside the Octagon, and Guida will turn 41 in a week. Still, Scott Holtzman is no spring chicken, although he has suffered exponentially less damage with a career less than a third as active as Guida. Holtzman has needed nearly a year and a half to recover from his previous loss, with a bad April 2021 knockout to Mateusz Gamrot prompting a lengthy period on the shelf. In that same stretch, Guida has fought three times, and activity could be an intangible worth leaning towards the moderately older former Strikeforce champion.

Several of the opponents who have overcome Holtzman of late have done so by putting “Hot Sauce” on his back. While not quite the same takedown machine he was in the days of old, Guida still maintains the chops to chain wrestle and get an opponent down—or at least force a scramble to make the two hit the ground. Guida is more hittable than he used to be, but his frantic movement still flusters opponents, and he has not slowed when reaching deep waters. The bottom has not yet fallen out for Guida, and Holtzman has not proven to be the kind of striker who forces his opponent’s corner to bring out smelling salts. Additionally, the 39-year-old is not a typically opportunistic finisher, so he may have to push Guida around for three rounds and maintain smothering top position for a least two of them to get a win. “Fight Goes to Decision” at -180 is also a possible option if one does not have the same faith in Guida but does not entirely rule him out.

Darren Elkins (+350)

This pairing is admittedly rough sledding for “The Damage,” who is on the wrong side of his 30s against an opponent in Jonathan Pearce who appears to be a younger, fresher and less shopworn version of himself. Having become somewhat of a sentimental favorite known for taking extreme amounts of punishment only to flip a switch and turn the tables on opponents, this approach typically does not bode well for lengthier careers. Still, Elkins, who entered the UFC in 2010, has won three of his last four fights, with two of those coming inside the distance. His gritty, grinding nature is still very much in play as he ages, and his cardio can still play a factor in the later rounds. In what might seem more of a flier than an outright selection—as well as the expectation that Pearce should not be a roughly -500 favorite against anyone on the roster—Elkins at major plus money cannot be simply skipped over.

Other than a nasty jump knee with which he put down Noe Quintanilla in his pro debut and a leaping standing-to-ground right hand on Jacob Rosales to earn a UFC contract, Pearce’s stopping ability is more that of attrition than one-hitter quitter nature. With 21 takedowns in his four UFC victories, “JSP” may try to grind the grinder. Scrambles are sure to come, but the crafty veteran may be able to teach the youngster a thing or two on the mat after Pearce’s energy dwindles. The momentum could swing mightily, and Elkins getting it done yet again is not totally out of the question. If one wishes a safer fourth play on another fight on the billing, take Rafael dos Anjos Wins by Decision at -115. Prime Picks goes big or goes home, and Elkins’ constant ability to pull a rabbit out of a hat as his foes flag is not so much of a bug as it is a feature. When the larger Pearce fades, Elkins can kick things into high gear.