Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 38 ‘Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot’

The dogs are barking for the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s short trip back to the UFC Apex this weekend. A few skewed betting lines for surging fighters might on paper make sense, but when digging deeper, could prove for some substantial upsets on this fight card. This UFC on ESPN 38 – also known as UFC Vegas 57 which might be confusing since the UFC has staged a few cards in Las Vegas not at the Apex to date – event is going all-in against the favorites, which includes the underdogs in the main and co-headlining bouts, a heavyweight pick ‘em and an upset that has value in how ridiculously high the favored man resides.

Mateusz Gamrot (+240)
Before diving into any of these four plays, it must be said that picking underdogs – much less heavy underdogs – comes with substantial risk. Both Arman Tsarukyan in the headliner and Shavkat Rakhmonov are firmly in the minus territory for good reason, with skills and recent results that back up those affirmations. However, these picks largely address how the juice is almost certainly not worth the squeeze for say a -280 on Tsarukyan, or a -460 on Rakhmonov, considering just how good their opponents are. For this marquee matchup at 155 pounds, some might be sleeping on Gamrot, who celebrates the superior resume of the two on the final fight of the night. Coupled with Gamrot’s stellar takedown defense, this betting line should be much closer, and the former KSW champ should be getting much more credit than he has thus far.

Tsarukyan proved that he does not need to drag the fight to the ground in order to win a fight, as he belted Christos Giagos with a head kick and finished the job with a ruthless flurry of fists towards the end of 2021 to surprise most watching. Even so, he is most effective when dragging his foe to the mat, doing so by any means possible. The Russian has hit takedowns on all but one of his six UFC opponents, and that zero likely only came about because he knocked Giagos out in about two minutes. Top-control wrestlers can struggle when placed on their back, and Tsarukyan found himself at a disadvantage when Islam Makhachev beat him to the proverbial punch on several key grappling exchanges to claim a decision. Gamrot may not be that stifling when on top, but he is dangerous in different, and very significant ways.

Gamrot does not fear hitting the mat, with a keen ability to pull submissions out of thin air or finding a way to hit a sweep from this. While Tsarukyan could be considered more of a pure wrestler, Gamrot approaches his game in the vein of a submission grappler, and this makes him a threat for as long as the fight on the ground. This match is a five-round bout, and of the two, only Gamrot has competed beyond the third round. In fact, every fight that has gone into the championship rounds for Gamrot, he has gotten his hand raised. Like a boulder rolling down a hill, Gamrot is able to up his pace and attack with higher volume as the rounds progress. Tsarukyan has not yet faded in the third round, but when grappling with Gamrot, his gas tank could be expended in a way he has not seen since taking on Makhachev. Gamrot presents legitimate danger on the feet as well as on the mat, and his underdog status is unquestionably worth a swing.

Neil Magny (+365)
Savvy bettors have made a fortune betting Magny at plus money over the years, as the crafty veteran has sprung a litany of upsets during his UFC tenure. Whether it was topping Geoff Neal, outworking Jingliang Li, handling Carlos Condit or spoiling Kelvin Gastelum’s momentum, Magny is never to be counted out of any fight. Of all of Magny’s opponents in his tenure – a ledger that has seen him take on multiple former or future UFC champs and many of the best to compete at welterweight – Magny has never been this substantial of an underdog. This includes the +165 line against Rafael dos Anjos, a +275 play against Tim Means early in his UFC run or +200 against Demian Maia. Instead, it is unbeaten Kazakhstan native Shavkat Rakhmonov that bettors believe will get the upper hand in a monumental way.

The confidence should be merited for Rakhmonov, who would likely be in the conversation of the Khamzat Chimaevs of the company, but for his inactivity. This will be his first year since joining up in 2020 where Rakhmonov will have stepped in the Octagon twice. His results speak for themselves: 15 wins, 15 finishes. How does one outdo a manhandling of Alex Oliveira? One runs through powerful tractor-like wrestler Michel Prazeres or blast Carlston Harris with a spinning hook kick. However, those names pale in comparison to the man now known as “The Haitian Sensation,” who never tires and rarely gets hurt in a fight. Magny puts a pace on his adversaries like few to do it, with fearless exchanges that can lead to prolonged clinch battles or surprise takedowns with minutes worth of top control. While Rakhmonov could step up to the occasion and earn the biggest win of his career, the 34-year-old Magny has seen it all in the cage, with 26 UFC appearances under his belt. If nothing else, his veteran savvy should make him worth considering, as this is a clear trap fight for the stellar unbeaten prospect nicknamed “Nomad.”

Josh Parisian (-105)
The lower echelon of the UFC’s heavyweight division is a rough place to be. Both Alan Baudot and Parisian are likely fighting for a roster spot here, and the line is understandably close. Weaknesses have been exposed, deficiencies shined from the rooftops and ceilings firmly placed above their respective heads. All is not lost for the two men north of 30, as they are still young men when it comes to heavyweights, but they will have to string together a long series of victories to even qualify for a crack at Andrei Arlovski in hopes of sniffing the top 15. When it comes to proven track records, even if not at the UFC level, Parisian is the one that has shown he can possibly stay afloat.

Baudot has only seen one win come from his hands dating back over five years, as a submission loss later overturned to a disqualification win for the Frenchman in 2019 when Todd Stoute failed a post-fight drug test. That one victory came over Yuto Nakajima, a welterweight with a sterling record of 0-5. Baudot is firmly in the wrong division, and Parisian should weigh in the far larger man unless something went horribly wrong for Baudot. While Parisian’s gas tank has been his worst enemy, if middleweight Dalcha Lungiambula can knock Baudot clean out, someone of Parisian’s stature can certainly do the same. Parisian throws everything and the kitchen sink at his opponents in the first round, and if Baudot cannot get his respect early, it will be rough sledding ahead. While Parisian is at -105, Baudot is slightly favored over him at -115, technically making Parisian the slightest of underdogs. Other books including a few former Sherdog betting partners have him at plus money, which is a solid get.

Nathan Maness (+650)
It is exceedingly rare throughout UFC history for a betting favorite at -1000 or above to lose their fight, happening just six times from Georges St. Pierre to Amanda Nunes. On the other hand, 55 fighters at -1000 or higher have won in the Octagon, from Yves Edwards to Alexander Romanov. Earlier this year, Umar Nurmagomedov, the prohibitive favorite in this bantamweight clash, already closed at -1000 and tapped Brian Kelleher in the first round. While Kelleher is undoubtedly capable of being caught dry – six first-round submission losses for Kelleher is a pattern, not a lapse in judgment – Maness has never encountered someone that could catch him, and he has faced solid regional-level opposition before reaching the big leagues. With finishing power on the feet and a sneaky ability to snake a choke in after his opponent gets careless, Maness could give fits to the undefeated Nurmagomedov.

At -1000, even the line that Nurmagomedov gets the finish is in minus territory (-125). It would be understandable for his cousin, former lightweight king Khabib Nurmagomedov, to have betting odds this lopsided. In this instance, the hype might have surpassed the displayed abilities, even if he has snatched up three rear-naked chokes in a row and rarely has been in danger. Questions loom of what happens the first time he gets cracked solidly like a right hand from Maness, or if he gets rebuffed for a takedown try and cannot simply chain it into another attempt. The result could easily play out like something akin to Bobby Green trying and failing to upset Makhachev, but in that case, Makhachev had manhandled decent names before taking on “King Bobby.” With a penchant for getting hurt and coming back strong, Maness could hope to lure the Dagestan native into a slugfest, ditching the grappling and trying to make a statement. The avenues may be narrow, but they do not appear to be +650 narrow, based on who Nurmagomedov has defeated to date. Maness could surprise a lot of people on Saturday night, and a flier on him would not be a complete waste of money at those odds.