An Ultimate Fighting Championship card on the ESPN flagship network used to mean something greater than a standard UFC Fight Night at one time. These days, they are one and the same, as only two of the 24 competitors at UFC on ESPN 35 this Saturday in Las Vegas are ranked, and they find themselves in the main event. While extremely light on star power, this fight card still features multiple avenues to profit—beyond the rescheduled heavyweight fight that will bring about the largest betting favorite in UFC history. This edition of Prime Picks will check out a slight favorite in the headliner, an old lion whose fourth gear is enough for his tier of heavyweight, a lethal opportunist in an opportunistic matchup and a frenetic flyweight affair likely to reach the final bell.
Rob Font (-130)
Experience matters. When it comes to the UFC on ESPN 35 headliner, Font has seen a pair of 25-minute fights recently on his ledger, while this is Vera’s first UFC main event and as a result, first five-rounder on the roster. Outslugging Cody Garbrandt while coming up short to Jose Aldo has given Font the opportunity to clock in cage time and get his footing when having to pace himself for two extra rounds. It did not work to his disadvantage when taking on Garbrandt, as his workload actually increased in Rounds 4 and 5, further putting distance between the ex-champ as he surged. This marquee attraction is a spectacular contest between two high-volume yet powerful strikers, both with iron chins and multiple tricks up their sleeves. Font, as the slightest of favorites, is a rightful pick given what he brings to the table.
A nearly unflappable high pace and the ability to roll with punches coming his way have made the New England Cartel staple a force to be reckoned with at 135 pounds. Those that have defeated him have either done so with superior power—like how Aldo dropped him twice in their December meeting—or the element of surprise. For the former, John Lineker gave him problems when they squared off in 2016. For the latter, the last gasp of Raphael Assuncao outfoxed him with effective counterstriking and a couple solid takedowns. Thankfully, Font will not encounter either of these specific skill sets when he comes to blows with Vera, a veritable meat grinder of fists and feet but not the kind that has historically wiped Font out. It is Font’s style that will give Vera pause, especially if he leads with his sharp jab and fights long to turn a one-inch reach advantage into something seemingly greater.
“Chito” would like nothing more than to make this battle with Font an all-out brawl, putting his might against the Massachusetts native’s and seeing where the chips fall. Whether punishing Font with leg kicks or clubbing him with elbows up close, Vera would vastly prefer to let his strikes do the talking. Font can play the oft-cited matador to Vera’s charging attacking approach, flustering him with distance shots and even mix things up with a level change should Vera get reckless. It would likely be in the best interest of the favorite to take this fight into deep waters, forcing Vera to account for himself after the 15-minute mark. Should one expect instead that the Ecuadorian will notch arguably the biggest win of his career, look no further than the even-money line on “Chito.”
Andrei Arlovski (-145)
Much like the cries of a distraught Jesse Pinkman from “Breaking Bad,” there exists a growing contingent of fans that shout after an Arlovski victory, “He can’t keep getting away with it!” It is nothing short of remarkable that at the age of 43, former heavyweight champ Arlovski—a man that held the UFC strap six years before his opponent Jake Collier made his professional debut—can still perform so impressively after so long in the game. Some expected after Fedor Emelianenko knocked his block off and subsequent defeats in Strikeforce to the likes of Brett Rogers and Sergei Kharitonov it spelled the end of the career of the Belarusian. A remarkable 13 years after Emelianenko leveled him mid-air and provided one of the most spectacular fight images of all time, Arlovski is still not only competing but winning bouts in the UFC. Sometimes it is as simple as playing the hot hand, but as a small favorite against ex-middleweight Collier, Arlovski makes all the sense in the world.
Knowing his chin had become a liability, Arlovski adapted a new approach to combat, by keeping a jab out there and a high enough volume to stave off those coming at him. Even though Arlovski has suffered 10 defeats since 2015, they have all come against top-ranked opposition. “The Prototype” has yet to establish himself as this type of talent since returning after several years away and multiple pants sizes larger. For a full-framed fighter that will likely tip the scales around 265 pounds—likely about 20 pounds above “The Pit Bull”—Collier moves deceptively fast. Even at this size, Collier maintains a solid workrate as the rounds progress. This is somewhere he will have a leg up on Arlovski, who has shown to tire after about 10 minutes. As long as he can bank the first two rounds and survive to the final bell, Arlovski can put himself on his longest win streak in years. There is also a pattern to follow: Collier has alternated wins and losses for his entire UFC career, and a defeat would keep that long-standing trend intact.
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Gerald Meerschaert Wins Inside Distance (+275)
Things really seem to be clicking for the man known as “GM3,” who is riding an impressive three-fight submission streak into his meeting with tough Polish out Krzysztof Jotko. This consecutive stretch of three wins in a row is his longest since joining the organization, and to make matters more impressive, he has never reached the final bell in any of his UFC triumphs. Far from impregnable, the Achilles heel for the Wisconsin native appears to be his early-fight sturdiness. Ten foes throughout his career have dispatched him within the first five minutes—this does include a notable setback to Jay Ellis, the man with the most losses in MMA history. Fortunately for Meerschaert, Jotko is not historically the blitzing type, with just one victory in over a decade in the first round. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors the dangerous grappler Meerschaert, and at big plus money for a finish, he can get things done and put a smile on bettors’ faces.
Unlike Meerschaert, Jotko is the kind of fighter that needs to involve the judges to get his hand raised. His lone UFC win by stoppage came over Tamdan McCrory over five years ago, and he has not appeared particularly close to replicating this feat since then. The onus will be on Jotko to survive all that Meerschaert throws at him, while nullifying his foe likely on the feet. On the mat, Jotko will constantly be in the danger zone, as “GM3” can hit a guillotine choke in an instant. It will have to be a slow, methodical kickboxing match with Meerschaert if Jotko hopes to not get snared in a web. While many moons ago, Magnus Cedenblad hit the exact kind of “snatching victory out of nowhere” submission in which Meerschaert specializes, with Jotko leaving his neck exposed a little too long in a takedown effort. If Jotko cannot keep his distance for 15 minutes—Jotko by decision is +210—the Roufusport product can hunt for submissions until he snags one, or attack from top position with ruthless ground-and-pound, and likely earns a spot in the rankings to boot.
Tatsuro Taira-Carlos Candelario Goes to Decision (+110)
It is not a slight to look at the lightest men’s weight category and expect the fight will end up going to the scorecards. Over half of all UFC men’s flyweight fights have gone to decision—a bit above 58%, to be more precise—and at +110, there is juice in this squeeze. On paper, the two Octagon newcomers in Taira and Candelario present high stoppage rates, but traditionally that is the case of two competitors that had not yet surpassed a feeder league onto a major stage. In the case of Taira, his advantageous grappling style, threatening with chokes or delivering rapid ground-and-pound strikes, may not translate up to a UFC-ready fighter. As for Candelario, this has already been evidenced as his last three outings against legitimate competition have gone the distance. It is one thing to knock out 1-2 Timothy Wheeler and another to go three hard rounds with Victor Altamirano.
This Shooto vs. CES MMA affair has excitement written all over it, even if Candelario did lose his last fight and earned a UFC contract in the same vein that Stephan Bonnar was signed to the promotion. There is much to like about Taira’s fast style, but his gaudy record will be put to the test when he finds he cannot simply take Candelario’s back in a hurry and get the choke in the first three minutes. Of the two, “The Cannon” has displayed more recent, relevant success going the distance, while every fight to go to the judges has been victorious for Taira. The bet is not about who wins, but rather how long the fight lasts. In this case, the plus option for it going the distance is more appetizing than -115 for the over of 2.5 rounds; neither man has ever netted a stoppage after 7:11 into a fight, so it does not seem a late stoppage is in the cards.