Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 33 ‘Blaydes vs. Daukaus’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship will end a stretch of eight consecutive weeks with an event on Saturday in the state capital of Ohio. This show offers name recognition virtually from top to bottom and will thrill fans in the Nationwide Arena in Columbus; and a baker’s dozen of interesting betting lines loom. The UFC on ESPN 33 episode of Prime Picks will provide no option with a line above -130, bringing a reasonable prop for the headliner, a beloved veteran at even money, an old lion who has a favorable matchup and a substantial underdog many are overlooking.

Curtis Blaydes Wins Inside Distance (-130)

Leading up through fight week, Blaydes has soared to a favorite of -400 or higher depending on the book, with bettors largely expecting he will not experience much difficulty against Chris Daukaus. Between the main and co-main event, there is not a great deal of value given that the favorites are favored for good reason, and the plus money on Daukaus at +325 or Joanne Wood at +195 is not quite worth fliers. Therefore, we look to a prop bet that is available on every book, instead of a narrower option of Blaydes Wins by TKO/KO, which can be found in some places around -110. The worthwhile play that shows up no matter where you place your money, should you wish to throw down some cash on the headliner, comes with Blaydes getting a finish.

Daukaus is coming out of the frying pan against Derrick Lewis and into a different, elbow-filled frying pan in “Razor” Blaydes. Speed will be the advantage for the Philadelphia-based Daukaus, whose quick hands and occasional feet dazzled as he fought his way up the heavyweight rankings. A motivated, healthy Lewis blew through him, but considering the Houstonian holds the all-time record in knockouts, that loss for Daukaus is not so much excused as it is understood. Lewis does that to people. Daukaus was able to deal with the grappling approaches of Alexey Oleynik and Shamil Abdurakhimov by stonewalling them and busting them in the chops, even if Oleynik is the only UFC fighter to test his takedown defense. His 100% TDD will be put to the test by the division’s most prolific takedown artist, and it is practically a certainty that his back will be put to the canvas at least once in this marquee matchup.

Even though Blaydes holds the record for the most takedowns landed in UFC heavyweight history by a country mile and his takedown accuracy rate is among the highest in the division, his hands have improved markedly as he has developed. It may come as a surprise that Blaydes recently turned 31 and is very likely still in his athletic prime. This spells disaster for Daukaus, who does hold a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but has never landed a submission as a pro. A real question mark for the 32-year-old Daukaus is that he has only gone to the scorecards once in his career, and the rest of his wins came in under eight minutes. When Daukaus hits his opponent with everything he has and does not put Blaydes down, it is only a matter of time until Blaydes starts gaining control and tossing Daukaus around like many in the past. Likely with 30 pounds in his favor, once Blaydes gets on top, it should only be a matter of time until he unleashes brutal ground-and-pound that finishes the job. This line allows for the unlikely club-and-sub option, but with five rounds to work, Blaydes can keep the judges out of the final results.

Matt Brown (-110)

A hugely sentimental favorite in his home state of Ohio, fight fans in the building would like nothing more than for “The Immortal” to register one more brutal finish and leave his gloves inside the Octagon. It would not be his first retirement and it might not even stick—MMA retirements rarely do these days—but it would be a fitting end to go out in front of home fans. Some nine months ago, Brown turned back the clock once again to positively wreck Dhiego Lima in a fight he was not losing until he landed the knockout right hand. The last thing to go is the power, and even as he has slowed with age, he should still have enough to get past this 2022 version of Bryan Barberena.

“Bam Bam” deceptively approaches his opponents with a granite chin that has only been cracked twice, both times in 2019. The fight miles may not be as high as Brown, but Barberena has plenty of wear and tear despite his seeming age advantage. Barberena will not go away unless there is a single knee-buckling strike to land, and only Vicente Luque’s knee and Randy Brown’s body work have put him down for the count. Unfortunately for Barberena, “The Immortal” still presents that danger, and Brown is not afraid to mix in takedowns to keep his opponents guessing. A battle where Brown can get in and out of danger, stepping in with vicious knees and scary elbows while evading the counters, will work well for him. This fight is a pick-’em, but the intangibles appear to be on the side of Brown, who should have more in the tank than his opponent.

Alexey Oleynik (+175)

Oleynik submitting Ilir Latifi would be a first, as the thick Swede has never once tapped out as a professional. That would not concern “The Boa Constrictor,” as in his litany of submission wins over the years, he has been the first man to submit many opponents in the past. On the wrong end of 44, there is no question that Oleynik has lost several steps, and his chin has abandoned him nearly as badly as his cardio. Against “The Sledgehammer,” Oleynik will not be taking on an opponent with sledgehammers in his fists, as Latifi has moved up to heavyweight without gaining any of the power advantages. In his two bouts above 205 pounds, Latifi is more concerned about getting a takedown than landing any strikes, with just 15 significant strikes landing across 30 minutes of combat.

Without worry about his jaw getting jacked, Oleynik can implement a grappling game that relies on catching his opponent in inopportune positions. If and when Latifi grounds Oleynik, this will not raise an eyebrow for the Russian, who will set up subs off his back at will. Latifi’s pace has slowed dramatically over the years, even if he was never particularly deft, and both of these lumbering men will amble towards one another and grab on for dear life. The Swede has shown an interest in embracing the grind up a division, and he has expressed no desire to move back down in weight, so he will use the extra poundage to his advantage on top. Unless Latifi can ring Oleynik’s bell, the opportunity is too great for Oleynik to snatch up yet another submission that baffles commentators, and his patented Ezekiel choke may be right around the corner.

Jennifer Maia (+340)

With three wins under the UFC banner in three tries, Manon Fiorot has become quite the hot commodity in a women’s flyweight division starved for contenders. Champion Valentina Shevchenko has dispatched many of the top-ranked women at 125 pounds, and a win for Fiorot will catapult her into contention, possibly even past the higher-billed Alexa Grasso-Joanne Wood clash. The Frenchwoman has displayed ample power with versatility in her hands and feet, and she has passed all of her tests since her MMA debut with flying colors. Momentum firmly on her side, she takes on the strong Brazilian Maia, who finds herself as one of the biggest underdogs on the lineup despite being the toughest test in Fiorot’s career by far. At minimum, a flier is worthwhile on the former title challenger.

The only women to beat Maia are currently ranked in or right around the Top 5 of the division on Sherdog, with Shevchenko, Liz Carmouche and a pair of setbacks to Katlyn Chookagian as her lone blemishes since her Invicta Fighting Championships days. A large woman in her weight class—she has missed the weight limit on more than one occasion—Maia can use that size to her benefit even if Fiorot clocks in taller and longer in the arms. A pressure boxer who can spend all day in the clinch if she wishes, Maia would unquestionably prefer to strip Fiorot’s legs out from beneath her and work her over on top. When contending with a woman her size, Fiorot might not be able to simply stuff the takedown and push her opponent aside, as Maia will not give up should the first try fail. Even if Fiorot’s skill set can frustrate Maia should this remain a kickboxing battle, Maia’s value as a massive underdog jumps off the page here.