Prime Picks: UFC on ABC 4 ‘Rozenstruik vs. Almeida’

The Queen City of Charlotte, North Carolina, on Saturday will receive the Ultimate Fighting Championship, as will the ABC broadcast network. There is plenty to like on this 12-bout lineup at the Spectrum Center, with a few ranked matchups, several action fighters and some fair lines from which to pick and choose, top to bottom. Join the UFC on ABC 4 edition of Prime Picks, as we advise consistency over flashiness, suggest “The Future” is in the future and make a potentially surprising call that a heavyweight fight goes long.

Anthony Smith (-110)

The light heavyweight clash once considered this event’s headliner is a coinflip, and for good reason. Both Smith and Johnny Walker sit at perfectly even -110 odds, thereby fitting the literal definition of a pick’em—although we consider pick’ems to be any pairing where both fighters are in minus territory, not when they are split even without any spread. The two competitors epitomize the “fight to the finish” approach when the cage door shots, with a combined eight decisions across their 80 pro fights. In their last five fights, Smith and Walker have heard the bell one time apiece, with stoppages in their win and loss columns. This one could end in an instant, but of the two competitors, Smith has proven to be more reliable on a fight-by-fight basis, whether getting his hand raised or not.

When a prognosticator has to wonder which version of a fighter will show up, it makes him an inherent risk to bet on. This is not as simple as the Anderson Silva dynamic of him goofing off when facing outmatched opponents. Instead, it is something that speaks to the fighter himself. For example, Donald Cerrone often spoke of fights that he did not want to be a part of and said he “did not show up that night.” An engaged Walker who does not make silly mistakes or walk straight into punches with his hands down is a dangerous one, but that is no sure thing. His last two fights have shown he can hang with the best fighters in the division, but the two before displayed listlessness and a demeanor that betrayed his seemingly excited, energetic self. Walker’s peaks may in theory exceed what Smith brings to the table, while the valleys he succumbs to are exactly where Smith can capitalize. Walker can shut the lights out and do it in a hurry, but Smith is not typically the type who succumbs to an early blitz and calls it a night. The durability of the longtime vet remains off the charts, and even though Magomed Ankalaev put him away in 2022, Smith’s suddenly broken leg led to that more than Ankalaev’s own ferociousness.

There is always the chance that the wheels could come off, as “Lionheart” has absorbed a considerable amount of punishment throughout his 53-fight pro tenure. A whole 10 knockout losses do not help, even if most were more than a decade ago. Given the frequent disruptions Smith encountered leading to this fight coming together, let alone its demotion from main event status, he could find that his heart is not entirely in it. Assuming he pushes through that, the more profitable play for this fight would be drilling down to the prop bet that Smith is his old self—where he procures a stoppage, given his finish rate over 90% and the fact that all of his wins at 205 pounds have come inside the distance. That line, if it is available to prospective bettors, is a sweet +150. If Smith wins this fight, given how Walker competes, it will likely be by something before the final bell.

Daniel Rodriguez (+255)

Spoiler is the word of the day for “D-Rod,” who faces off against undefeated Irishman Ian Garry. Almost 11 years his opponent’s senior, late bloomer Rodriguez would like nothing more than to shut down the momentum of the youngster. He can do this with high volume, surprising punching power and decent defensive fundamentals. Ever the aggressor, Garry will likely come at him with a veritable blender of offense, chaining head kicks into standing elbows and flying knees into something else painful. The composure and durability of Rodriguez can help him spring the upset, as “The Future” comes in at an unexpectedly high -310 or so. Garry has not been the type to blaze through this level of competition while coming out unscathed, and Rodriguez has the tools to take him down a notch.

During his run through the Octagon thus far, Rodriguez’s striking has allowed him to climb the ladder to where he is now. A division-high striking differential widely in his favor, where he lands at least two and a half more strikes than he absorbs, gives him a serious leg to stand on against other men who wish to trade with him. Garry can give it as much as he can receive it, but if he wants to take the 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu fighter out of his element, he should plant him on his back. While the aforementioned school for Rodriguez means his offensive guard should not be slept on, it also allows for savvy grapplers to evade the attempts and rack up control time. Rodriguez can chase low-percentage moves and sweeps rather than forcing a standup, but getting him there initially may be a real test for Garry. If these two simply decide to slug it out until one falls, this is hardly a 3-to-1 line for either combatant. Garry will not be able to outrange his adversary in this matchup, and finding out that someone can not only keep up with him but hit him like a truck may surprise him early and often. Rodriguez can spoil the party for Garry, keeping this as a pure striking battle and not walking into the flashy attacks from “The Future.”

DOUBLE PLAY (+104)

Ji Yeon Kim-Mandy Bohm Goes to Decision (-350)

Jessica-Rose Clark-Tainara Lisboa Goes to Decision (-170)

Hot-footing around the card, some stones are better left unturned. At about -500, there is not a lot of juice in the heftily favored Jailton Almeida in the main attraction, or even the -290 line that he gets it done before the final bell. Few expect that mighty favorite Jairzinho Rozenstruik will be able to stay off his back long enough to chop the Brazilian tree down, either. A few of the exciting scraps on the main card might hinge on who hurts the other first. Instead of all those, we turn to a pair of fights that can be bundled together for value in the form of a pair of decision prospects. While Kim-Bohm is a match we once suggested using this specific go-the-distance line in a potential parlay, the second leg is in the form of the other women’s bout on the docket.

While statistically female fighters in the UFC feature a far lower finish rate (37.8%)—it rises in the women’s bantamweight category to about 40.6%—it is not entirely about gender in these two picks. Instead, it is the styles that these ladies present, which result in longer matches as they look to outduel one another. It is also the past history of the competitors and, in one case, the sudden uptick in level of competition that may slow things down. Kim-Bohm features two fighters totaling for 17 decisions in 27 fights, and two methodical flyweights who succeed through volume and not power. While Lisboa has never gone the distance in a fight she has won thus far, those five opponents celebrated a combined record of around 1-4. Clark will stand in her face while bringing the pressure, and it will be up to the muay thai practitioner Lisboa to stay away from any attempts to get put on her back and bang things out. The Brazilian’s power might not be enough to crack the chin of “Jessy-Jess,” while she seems defensively minded enough not to fall into a submission. The two coupled decisions pay out in plus territory, making this parlay a simple one to watch.

Karl Williams-Chase Sherman Goes Over 1.5 Rounds (-145)

For most heavyweight contests, this suggested line may be unwise. The power big men possess mean that one shot can change the course of the fight, and it often does. In the case of Atlanta’s Williams and Mississippi native Sherman, however, one-punch knockout power is off the table. There always exists the slim chance a single fierce elbow could get through to shut the lights out, but that has not happened to these two lately. Quick submissions are their kryptonite, and neither man has landed a sub in his career. While Williams may look to take the fight to the mat and pound things out, he does not do that very often. On the other side, striker Sherman would like to stay fleet of foot and use attrition to batter down his foes over time. Just one of the victories for Sherman in the UFC has come before 2:30 of Round 2, while Williams has reached the scorecards in four of his last five outings.

A finish for either of these roughly 245- to 250-pound men is not completely off the table, but it may take some warming up to get there. The three fights for Sherman between UFC stints were all quick knockouts, but that changed as soon as he graced the Octagon again. Meanwhile, Sherman might not be a top-tier heavyweight, but at least he has a win this decade. The same cannot be said about the last man Williams finished in Simon Marini, whose .500 record features his most recent victory back in 2010. With blitzes not likely part of the equation and with Williams being an effective takedown artist but not offering a great deal of offense when he gets there, this might not be pretty and it might last a while. Unless Williams gets his man in a rough spot early, rains down slow but methodical punches and convinces the referee to step in, this has all the makings of one that at least reaches the midpoint of Round 2.