Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 244 ‘Royval vs. Taira’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship will not put its best foot forward with its latest offering this Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, with just half of the competitors on the billing coming off victories and a half dozen of them on winless skids. While no fighters check in with absurd lines around -1000, five different matchups present betting lines of -250 or higher at the moment. Join the UFC Vegas 98 edition of Prime Picks as we peel into the layers of the headliner and turn up the heat for a pair of flamethrowers on the main card.

Brandon Royval (+240)

The disrespect for Royval is high when it comes to this headlining moneyline. When battling Brandon Moreno for the second time while coming off a loss, it was understandable that “The Assassin Baby” should serve as a 3-to-1 favorite. However, Royval passed that test, skirting by his shared-name rival to place himself immediately back in the title picture. While the undefeated Tatsuro Taira is undoubtedly an exceptional talent and he has backed up that potential with stellar performances, Royval is no easy out for anyone.

Level of competition takes a giant but likely merited step up, as Taira recently surpassed ex-title challenger Alex Perez, riding out a tough early going to wrench him down strategically to blow out his knee. That victory remains his lone elite win in terms of ranked opposition, and Perez has shown himself to be a bit of a glass cannon on the highest stage. Royval, whose lone knockout defeat came when his shoulder exploded and only submission setback came to future champ Alexandre Pantoja, is far from someone who is just walked through. Taira may be the more cerebral and tactical fighter, but in the face of pure chaos, it is hard to justify the Japanese upstart with odds this high.

There is every possibility that Taira is able to flow through the madness, allowing Royval to telegraph his offense and get reckless so he can capitalize. Taira utilizes extremely opportunistic attacks, casually locking down a fight-ending triangle armbar submission like a snake constricting its prey. To win, the 24-year-old from Japan will have to survive frenetic blitzes and counter without retaliation and otherwise let the waves crash against him. Royval may be an All-Violence candidate at any moment of the fight, but with sheer aggression comes openings. While not particularly accurate when on the feet, he can get hit and sometimes seems to relish taking damage. The tactician can outguile the madman, but the wildness of Royval has a means to an end even as it seems he is making it up as it goes along. As long as Royval does not fall into a trap from which he cannot escape, there is value on him as a trap fight for the undefeated youngster.

DOUBLE PLAY (-151)

Brad Tavares-Jun Yong Park Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-275)

Julia Polastri-Cory McKenna Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-460)

Turning 37 in December, the tread is largely off the tires of perennial middleweight contender Tavares. Always in the running but never atop the leaderboard, Tavares made his bones thanks to toughness, recoverability and an ironclad determination to keep pushing even when the chips are down. With an upset win, Tavares could tie Michael Bisping’s record for the most triumphs in divisional history. This line does not address the latter as much as it does the former, in the vein of Tavares’ durability. It has faded, with cracks appearing in the facade, but his chin will get to have a bit of a breather as Park is not the same kind of power puncher as Gregory Rodrigues, Bruno Silva and Dricus Du Plessis. Whether it turns into a wrestling contest or a slow-paced kickboxing affair, this co-main event should last a while.

The numbers are in favor of Polastri-McKenna going deep, as well. The diminutive strawweights are not typical fight finishers, with submissions likely their only immediate tools to elicit a stoppage at this level of the sport. When it comes to the sophomore appearance of Polastri, none of her four defeats are anything to sneeze at, Invicta Fighting Championships and UFC vets all. When against a superior foe, the Brazilian still manages to come back strong, taking rounds from Jasmine Jasudavicius and Josefine Lindgren Knutsson after dropping the first frame against both. Most importantly, no woman has managed to put her away, and some on the level of “Poppins” have tried and failed. This could go all three rounds easily, making it a solid anchor for this two-piece accumulator.

Chidi Njokuani (-175)

Just when the book seemed to be written for finish-or-be-finished Njokuani, he drops down in weight to a seemingly unwise division and demonstrates durability and a strategy unlike many recent appearances. Even if that victorious decision came over a struggling UFC fighter like Rhys McKee, it showed good signs that, even at age 35, “Chidi Chidi Bang Bang” is still learning and developing. While he may never be able to entirely shake the overt willingness to get into slugfests to his detriment, Jared Gooden might not be the one to make him pay for any such lapse. The tall, lanky welterweights will clash together, and Njokuani historically hits notably harder and maintains a reach advantage.

What largely went wrong for Gooden in his first stint in the Octagon from 2020 to 2021 was that he was entirely too hittable. It was not the best sign when Impa Kasanganay put him out on the regional scene before either of them was picked back up by a major promotion, and Carlston Harris and Wellington Turman both landed cleanly on him during their most recent engagements. Gooden would make up for that with sheer volume on his own end, but the lion’s share of foes at the UFC level put more on him than he landed on them. If this trend continues, Njokuani will pluck his chin like a ripe raspberry.

Abdul Razak Alhassan (-165)

No matter his age, opponent or the combat location, Alhassan is a flamethrower through and through. Until he met Claudio Ribeiro, the numbers of Alhassan were remarkable: 11 wins, 11 first-round knockouts. As fighters picked up on his tells, they could at worst avoid his most damaging attacks and at best stifle him and even catch him in one of many openings. When swinging for the fences all the time, a fighter can leave himself open to getting caught—savvy combatants like Kalinn Williams and Joe Pyfer have done just that. Thus far in his UFC tenure, Josh Fremd has not shown to be the type who would figure out the bombarding striker until it was too late.

The jury is still out on what Fremd does on a UFC level, even if he does celebrate more than one win inside the Octagon. His offensive and defensive wrestling has been stymied more than once, his power has not shown to be a difference maker and his submissions are only effective against less savvy grapplers. Most troubling may be his willingness to rely on his chin and trade, which will spell disaster against a fastball pitcher in Alhassan. With neither heavy volume nor stunning power on his side, any time he decides to throw hands with Alhassan will be to put his chin on the gunnery range. It would be in his best interest to spam takedowns and never let up, because the Ghana-based fighter has a glaring hole in his game. While Fremd will have to be perfect in his approach for 15 long minutes, Alhassan only needs one second to change the game.