Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 243 ‘Moicano vs. St. Denis’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship took a necessary breather after the Spectacle at the Sphere and now travels overseas to the City of Lights. French athletes litter this overstuffed 14-fight lineup, and more than a few combatants have off-the-charts betting lines. Join the UFC Paris edition of Prime Picks as we keep our eyes firmly glued to the clock—but for good reasons, not due to boredom.

Benoit St. Denis Wins Inside Distance (-190)

Much like the character Kratos from the “God of War” video game series, St. Denis is an absolute destroyer. The nickname suits him well, as he fights full speed, throwing everything he has at opponents until they fade or he does. Other than the tail end of Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos’ stretch as a dangerous, accurate kickboxer and the inimitable Dustin Poirier, that approach has worked for the Frenchman. Not only has he gone out guns blazing, but his 100% finish rate with submissions and consciousness-depriving knockouts shows that he can do serious damage vertically and horizontally. Against Renato Carneiro, an exceptional grappler who might be falling in love with his hands, this is the type of encounter where St. Denis can feast. With five rounds to work, St. Denis will seek out the finish or fall trying.

With the betting line on the main event of UFC Paris at -190 for under 2.5 rounds, the expectation is that violence will be on full display in this torrid lightweight affair. “Moicano” does not shy away from carnage, and he relishes slugfests even when they are clearly to his detriment. If there is a statistical knock on St. Denis, it’s that he’s extremely hittable. Knowing that his defense is not a priority, a foe with a well-developed game plan could find some ploy to defuse him. However, with the pace with which St. Denis approaches his matches, the more cerebral adversary better have the ability to either slow him down or make him pay for his overt aggression. Unfortunately for Carneiro, this isn’t his strong suit as long as the fight is on the feet.

There exists a very real scenario where the marauding St. Denis bull-rushes his way into a takedown, as he loves letting loose with devastating ground-and-pound. Stay too long in the guard of “Moicano” without tearing him to shreds, however, and he will put himself in peril. The 28-year-old from Bayonne, France, is fearless, and he will stick his head in the lion’s mouth in order to accomplish what he came to achieve. St. Denis has laughed off vaunted grapplers in the past, ignoring what Ismael Bonfim or Thiago Moises threw at him to impose his own game. “Moicano” will keep St. Denis honest for as long as the fight is on the mat, but when damage begins to mount and the Frenchman shows no sign of slowing down, the excited expression of Carneiro will change significantly. Until he wins a fight on the scorecards, there will always be a looming question about St. Denis’ gas tank. However, with an overeager dance partner in “Moicano,” St. Denis can hit harder and replicate the success that Jose Aldo, Chan Sung Jung and Rafael Fiziev all had against him.

Nassourdine Imavov-Brendan Allen Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-150)

Chances are, if the middleweight co-headliner that could be a sneaky title eliminator goes long, it will because of the successes of Imavov. The French striker would like nothing more than to keep “All In” at the end of his punches, making him pay for the all-in approach that Allen can deliver. With solid accuracy and stinging power, Imavov’s shot selection has disabled heavy hitters like Jared Cannonier, Joaquin Buckley and Roman Dolidze. Although Sean Strickland simply played the jab-and-move game better, Allen is not the type of fighter who will do that. That’s not to guarantee victory for Imavov, but rather a stylistic clash that may allow the Frenchman to play the matador and peel time off the clock.

On the other hand, if the fight ends before 12:30, it will likely be due to Allen. The Kill Cliff Fight Club fighter is an offensive beast with a brilliant back-take game, and a winning streak of seven straight—with a whopping five rear-naked chokes—is no accident whatsoever. Should Allen get his hands on Imavov, he can take him for a ride or at least slow the methodical attack for a time. Additionally, Allen’s in-your-face strategy could get his chin checked, as both Chris Curtis and Strickland busted him in the chops due to this lapse in defense. Allen can get stung, but now that he’s entering his prime, his recoverability is at its zenith. The likelihood that Imavov can dictate range means that the fight should last longer, barring Allen walking into something flush or somehow snatching a submission.

Joanderson Brito-William Gomis Does Not Go to Decision (-125)

This event has a number of athletes who tend to put their chins on the gunnery range as they go all out in hopes of finishing the fight. The aforementioned St. Denis and Allen are but two examples of fighters who usually get their hands raised, but whenever they crash and burn, it’s due to their own recklessness. Brito falls perfectly into that category as someone who competes as if he’s double-parked. Even against a nullifying grappler like Jonathan Pearce, Brito had decided that he did not want to be controlled any longer, stood up and hit a ninja choke on “JSP.” Brito will not stop until the other man in the cage with him is asleep or surrendering, and he appears to have already passed tests higher than where Gomis currently resides in the talent-rich 145-pound division.

Gomis earned a name thanks to a suspect body kick in which he frazzled Yanis Ghemmouri in 2023, and his 11-fight winning streak is nothing at which to sneeze, even if a handful of those victories came over less-than-stellar opposition. After a trio of trips to the UFC cage, it’s not his offense that has dazzled as much as it has been his defense. Typically, effective strikers have not been able to find his timing, and any grappling inflicted upon him has been thwarted well enough for him to reimpose his own will. There will be a wall that the juggernaut Brito will encounter where he cannot crash through, although it does not appear to be now. Still, Gomis’ quick hands and feet make him no slouch, and this line of the fight ending before the final bell is more appealing than a Brito stoppage right around even money.

Ludovit Klein Wins Inside Distance (-175)

Sometimes, we go all-out for underdogs when the mood strikes us right. On rare occasions, we avoid plus money altogether. In this case, the reason is instead to follow a theme of an article rather than to plunk down four unrelated picks for the sake of offering simple but savvy betting advice. Favored fighters are generally the favorites for a reason, and those with heavy odds above -400 tend to win upwards of 90% of their fights, even though the implied win probability—one of the only times you will ever hear that term in this series—is 80% at -400. We tend to avoid lines over -200 because there isn’t a lot of intrigue in a moneyline like that, so when it comes to a fighter like Klein, who will clock in around comical -1000 odds, we have to drill down.

The Slovakian may receive the most favorable matchup out of all the competitors on the lineup, and not just because bettors think so. While Klein is a dangerous kickboxer with a varied arsenal—his Fight Finder photo caught him mid-air throwing a flying kick—opponent Roosevelt Roberts tends to stay on the outside and pick his shots more carefully. Roberts is not only susceptible to getting blitzed, but his strikes are not particularly accurate and his takedowns are not historically effective on the major stage. When the biggest win of his UFC tenure remains a submission of Brok Weaver, Klein to date has shown to be on another level. While the finish rate of “Mr. Highlight” has not been off the charts in the Octagon, against the right opponent like Roberts, Klein can unquestionably live up to his nickname. Since Klein is an equal-opportunity finisher, the line on a stoppage is good enough without trying to guess whether he can punt Roberts or if he will pull off a club-and-sub stoppage.