The Ultimate Fighting Championship tucks its tail and heads back to the UFC Apex on Saturday in Las Vegas with a show that it planned on delivering to Saudi Arabia, only to be rejected for lack of quality. From a betting perspective, this event is bananas, with eight of the 11 fights seeing one fighter favored at -300 or above, so wager at your peril. Check out what is brewing on the UFC Fight Night 238 edition of Prime Picks, where we pour with one favorite who is going to smash, add some violence with a pair of feisty flyweights and sprinkle in a little magic for a titanic upset.
Shamil Gaziev Wins Inside Distance (-125)
While he chose to slug it out with Martin Buday, wrestling makes Gaziev a potential threat at heavyweight, as he turned 34 earlier this month. The KHK MMA fighter jumped at the chance to play on the ground with Greg Velasco in his contract-winning performance, although he got there by dropping Velasco with his very first punch. As evidenced by many past outings, Jairzinho Rozenstruik’s main weakness is his ground game, which Gaziev will be more than willing to exploit. Even though this is his second UFC fight, and he is already headlining, he can rise to the occasion if he does not get lured into a slugfest and caught.
On some sportsbooks, the line for the fight ending with a knockout on either side is -330. Even as the underdog, Rozenstruik prevails via strikes is a paltry +165. With Gaziev’s ability to snatch up a quick rear-naked choke after punishing his foe on the ground, it may be safer to pick him getting the stoppage rather than delving into plus money to pinpoint which kind. The Bahraini, by way of Russia, should have a fair size advantage, so once he gets on top, good luck with the rest. Of the two, Rozenstruik may have the better cardio reserves, and he is the only one who can claim he fought five rounds before. Still, with a chin that takes just as much as it gives lately and a giant hole in his defensive grappling, the favorite is favored for a reason.
It is a little unfair to state that if Gaziev lands a takedown, he will win. The last three men to put Rozenstruik on his back all did beat him, although Alistair Overeem and Junior Albini did not find the same successes. Rozenstruik will undoubtedly come prepared for the takedown. Gaziev might have to hustle and flow to find a different angle rather than a straight double as he pushes the Suriname native against the cage. It also might be unfair to give Rozenstruik a puncher’s chance because, as he has displayed on more than one occasion, it is quite a punch he offers. Keeping his back away from the cage, mixing in kicks, and constantly moving will be what Rozenstruik needs to do to prevail. However, with five rounds to work, unless Gaziev gasses while searching for a first-round finish, he should have enough time to get “Bigi Boy” down and procure a finish.
Alex Perez-Muhammad Mokaev Ends Inside Distance (-150)
Flyweights will fight fast and furiously on the main card, and Perez vs. Mokaev is no exception. While Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg promises some fun action, this one practically guarantees it. Former title challenger Perez has had some very high highs and some exceptionally low lows as a UFC fighter thus far, working his way towards a crack at Deiveson Figueiredo’s throne only to be cast away in less than two minutes. The Tachi Palace Fights mainstay comes out like he was shot out of a cannon and is capable of both quick-strike knockouts and speedy submissions. His opponent, Mokaev, is more geared towards the latter, and it remains to be seen if his power will play a factor. One way or another, one of these 125ers will likely lose by stoppage, and it should be wild until that happens.
As some fighters come to the UFC, they tend to get slowed down by opposition and find they cannot get the finish as often as they used to. That is not the case for Perez, as he has only heard the final horn twice in nine outings since joining the roster. On both sides of the equation, six of his walks to the Octagon have ended violently within one minute. Perez is susceptible to getting caught early, but that may have to do with the elite competition he faced: name the easy out between Joseph Benavidez, Figueiredo and Alexandre Pantoja. This fight will show whether Mokaev is a contender or a pretender, at least for the time being, and it is one that Perez could spectacularly win just as easily as he finds himself staring at the lights in 90 seconds.
Bekzat Almakhan (+750)
How could anyone in good conscience throw their hard-earned cash on an unknown fighter making his debut against an unbeaten fighter named Nurmagomedov? After all, Umar Nurmagomedov introduced himself to UFC fans by styling on Sergey Morozov in 2021. To underdog Almakhan, beating that name was old hat, as he had beaten Morozov in a three-rounder three years earlier under rules that limited grappling. It might be a real long shot—a win for Almakhan would clock in right around the biggest betting upset in UFC history—but with his punching power and the unknowns swirling around him, the 26-year-old could shock the world.
While hoisting the famed name of a certain former Russian lightweight champ, the rise of this particular Nurmagomedov has hardly been meteoric despite his performances. After four lopsided wins in the Octagon, where he displayed not only his acumen for grappling but also his ability to lay waste to bantamweights on the feet, Nurmagomedov still does not have a top-10 opponent and has only averaged a little over one fight per year. In his athletic prime right now, he will have to contend with a heavy-handed wunderkind who has shown in some of his non-MMA fights that he also has slick submission chops. Nurmagomedov may be the rightful favorite, but with zero pressure on the kid from Kazakhstan, the line appears to be a trifle off. As it stands, Nurmagomedov’s status at -1300 or so is barely worth the multiplier in a long parlay.
TRIPLE THREAT (-108)
Rozenstruik-Gaziev Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-435)
Vitor Petrino (-305)
Eryk Anders (-550)
Did we mention that this card is a minefield on top of a rocky volcano path traversing a cliff in a wind storm? Although bettors see several of these matches as foregone conclusions, this sport of MMA often delivers chaos and carnage that no one can expect. Would it be surprising that Rozenstruik timed an uppercut or knee when Gaziev was shooting in to deprive him of his consciousness? It might serve as a catch-all for the majority of results of the heavyweight headliner, and it might be more conservative than necessary, but plenty of risk is listed above. One heavyweight going down before the midpoint of Round 3 is all it takes to cash the anchor of this parlay.
The second piece is, by the books, the most vulnerable option, but the pairing of Brazil’s Petrino against Australia’s Tyson Pedro is one that will also join Rozenstruik-Gaziev as one that does not hear the final bell—and that line can be found at -260, as a possible substitute for Petrino outright. The man known by many names, including “Icao,” “Merciless,” and “Cabuloso,” among others, rarely takes a step back, and that has led him to impressive wins over the mediocre competition in the talent-starved light heavyweight division. The Brazilian swings hard but is more than ready to hunt for a takedown, and he can stifle any of Pedro’s best offenses if he completes them.
Given their relative status at middleweight, it might be surprising that someone like Anders is facing an opponent who has convincingly lost his last four. Even though he has been up against a higher echelon of competition in the fringe contenders outside of the top 15, Anders has also struggled, dropping three of four. Even in defeat when he hits walls, “Ya Boi” has shown signs of success and a willingness to give it all he has. Pickett has not panned out after three shots on Dana White's Contender Series, and the heavy favorite Anders should be able to seal the deal on this three-legged accumulator with a win.