Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 237 ‘Moreno vs. Royval 2’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship ends an exceptionally busy Saturday for mixed martial arts by taking to Mexico City with a fight card jam-packed by competitors from the host nation. As expected, most locals are favored against the foreign opposition, with some as high as -500 and -650, depending on the book. To make the most of this show, we look to a specific prop in the main event, suggest that cardio will beat skill in one encounter and run amok with a three-pronged revenge parlay on the UFC Fight Night 237 edition of Prime Picks.

Brandon Moreno-Brandon Royval Does Not Go to Decision (-145)

Match any two Top 10 UFC flyweights against one another, and the result will almost certainly be an enjoyable fight. Kai Kara-France-Alex Perez? Absolutely. Tim Elliott-Manel Kape? Why not? The list goes on. When it comes to exciting matches that might have ended prematurely, and they also happen to be among two of the best 125-pounders in the world? Even former UFC superfan James Ladner might come out of mothballs for this. It is good that the UFC made Moreno-Royval 2 a five-round affair because they are the type of fighters that can use most of it and pull a finish out of nowhere. With countering abilities to render the other unconscious courtesy of a quick strike or hit a submission in the blink of an eye, the line on this fight not hearing the final bell is fair.

It is not simply a numerical comparison of finish rates, with Moreno at 76% compared to Royval’s 13%, that makes this quest for a stoppage legitimate. Typically, as competition improves, fights last longer as conditioning and advanced skill sets are at the pinnacle for the elite of the elite. Both Brandons have bucked that trend, with each man earning four of their last five victories inside the distance, even in top-tier affairs. This also includes their first meeting, which may have gone awry when Royval injured his shoulder before getting pounded out. Quick scrambles, fast-and-furious action and plenty of back-and-forth should treat fans until one man ends this before the final horn. These violent delights have violent ends.

Ricky Turcios (+185)

Most of the matchups on the bill include one Mexican fighter against a foreign adversary, but this bantamweight collision between Raul Rosas Jr. and Turcios is not one of them—even though the crowd will treat Rosas as one of their own. The unbeaten shine of the 19-year-old is already gone after a thorough outworking at the hands of Christian Rodriguez less than a year ago, but that did not derail his career or stop him from wanting to learn. It might have relieved some of the pressure placed by his team, family, fans and himself. Speaking of pressure, his assignment in Turcios is the physical embodiment of that, and that might spell difficulty for a younger man who still has a lot to learn.

If rated like a video game skill system, with points for grappling, striking, etc., Rosas may stand above Turcios in many categories. Where he will fall short is in cardio and the ability to maintain a steady pace if he is not the one advancing. While Turcios may be a grappler first with fairly rudimentary striking—similar to his opponent—his high work rate on the feet makes up for some of his deficiencies when facing another fighter who cannot make him pay for those openings. For every minute that elapses in this matchup, confidence in a pick for the underdog should grow.

TRIPLE THREAT (+172)

Brandon Moreno (-300)

Yair Rodriguez (-150)

Edgar Chairez (-450)

This accumulator is specifically devoted to rematches. All three Mexican gunslingers are favored to win the second meeting between their respective foes, and their minus numbers come in part to their performances in the first bout. Moreno and Royval engaged in a wild single round until an injury led to the stoppage, and based on their developments over three years later, Moreno should be able to get it done again. Royval comes in on short notice with an extremely dangerous offense that works against all but the best in the division. Moreno may have to go through the fire to get it, but he should be able to prevail and anchor this parlay—and get a finish, as well.

The career trajectories for Rodriguez and Brian Ortega have differed significantly since their first fight. Rodriguez claimed the interim featherweight strap and was summarily dismissed by Alexander Volkanovski, while Ortega has remained on the shelf ever since. In athletic primes, activity is key, and Ortega will find a rude awakening if he takes this co-headlining five-rounder lightly. Coming back to the UFC after over 19 months away, up above 7,300 feet in elevation, is something that a fighter rarely can shake off like a flash knockdown. It will be entirely up to Ortega to get his hands on Rodriguez and not let him go and methodically try to take the fight to a more horizontal place. If Ortega can impose his grappling, an upset may come, but every round starts on the feet, and Rodriguez can lay claim to the height and reach advantages of his exceptional striking.

But for an early stoppage by referee Chris Tognoni, Chairez would have claimed a reasonably easy, quick victory over the slumping Daniel da Silva. Had Tognoni let the flyweights play out just a bit longer, Chairez may have completed the guillotine choke and forced the tap. Instead, da Silva, who has been outclassed in all five Octagon outings, gets one more chance to make a first impression. About five months have elapsed since that premature intervention. Unless the Chute Boxe camp helmed by Diego Lima has recently unlocked a latent talent from “Miojo,” he is in for rough sledding in Part 2 against Chairez. Da Silva is all offense all the time, and this has led him into grave danger in every fight, given that he should have five stoppage losses on his UFC ledger. Chairez will unofficially make it six by night’s end, although a play on him winning inside the distance is a bit high for a solo option at -250.