Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 225 ‘Holloway vs. Korean Zombie’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will blow up One Championship’s spot by planting its flag back inside Singapore Indoor Stadium. While jammed with relatively local talent, this event gives some trouble to bettors, with three important matchups all seeing betting odds of -600 or higher. Join the UFC Fight Night 225 edition of Prime Picks as we navigate the straits of Singapore in search of opportunity, including a smash-’em-up co-headliner, an ebullient underdog who may not be for everyone, a young star on the rise and a straight-up slugfest.

Anthony Smith-Ryan Spann Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-195)

Rarely do we suggest highly favored lines, and going over -200 is practically an anomaly these days unless there is a real aberration worth addressing. Still, when observing the prohibitive -850 line of the favored Max Holloway in the main attraction and that even a bet of the fight lasting over 2.5 rounds at -230 is a bit up there, we have to shift focus to the co-headliner. Although, we would be remiss to point out that the option on a few books of Fight Starts Round 4 between Holloway and Chan Sung Jung can be found around -190, which is also not too bad. However, Smith-Spann 2 is where the money can be made, given how these two light heavyweight contenders match up. A fast finish is virtually guaranteed in their rematch, so this under is an extremely choice proposition.

A former title challenger, Smith has not won a fight on the scorecards since he fought Leonardo Guimaraes in his return to the organization in 2016, back when he was a middleweight. Of the 10 triumphs to happen since then, five of those foes have gone out in the very first round, with his most recent victim—Spann—doing so in a non-controversial club-and-sub situation in 2021. He has suffered seven losses in that stretch, as well, and three of those men put him down. What makes the giant difference is not those specific numbers but the matchup he faces in this three-round tilt.

Spann is a berserker, and one who has not been wrangled or blunted by his schooling at Fortis MMA. Instead, it seems to have encouraged him to let his surprisingly decent hands go, with the knowledge that his submission chops are fairly up to par if he has to fall back on something. Spann’s guillotine choke is especially dangerous, and it is his preferred weapon should someone shoot in on his hips. Each of the last six bouts for “Superman” have ended in Round 1, win or lose, and eight of his 10 UFC fights have concluded before the midpoint of the second stanza. The Texan is still susceptible to traps, and his durability has never been his strongest attribute. Smith has gotten older, while Spann still remains at the end of his prime, and when these 205-pound goliaths crash together, only one will be left standing. As this fight will likely wrap up within the first five-minute stretch, the under will hit and bettors will be happy.

Alex Caceres (+195)

This featherweight pairing, with the odds as they are now, might be the epitome of an underdog-or-bust matchup. The favored Giga Chikadze, with odds ranging from -235 to about -250, is expected to get back in the win column in the “featured fight of the night.” With the line as it stands, Chikadze does not have a great deal of value on his side of the equation, while anyone thinking that Caceres is funky enough to pull out two rounds or snake a late submission could still come out better than expected. Chikadze is a dangerous kickboxer who targets all areas without seeming to set a pattern, and the body kick he has named might be the best weapon in his arsenal. It will behoove him to stay at his own range, just out of the way of Caceres’ hands and distant enough to keep the Miami native from tying him up. There are still avenues to victory for Caceres, despite being at a likely disadvantage as long as things stay standing.

It might come as a surprise that “Bruce Leeroy” is a notably more accurate striker than his opponent, and his volume has historically outpaced the Georgian. What might shock analysts is that of the two, Chikadze has been shown to be the more hittable man, while Caceres’ awkward style and approach keeps him out of the worst situations. In his lengthy UFC tenure, the only man to ever put Caceres away with strikes was Francisco Rivera, as “Cisco” decked his foe in the early seconds of the fight before “The Ultimate Fighter 12” alum had his sea legs beneath him. The avenue to victory that Calvin Kattar displayed is not one that the Floridian can easily replicate, so it will be up to Caceres to never let Chikadze get comfortable in the cage. Whether by pressuring and forcing Chikadze to constantly fight off his back foot, tiring his adversary out in the clinch while fishing for trips or going off-script to turn this into a wrestling match, there are ways Caceres can disrupt the kickfighter and gain an upper hand. If there is no confidence that Caceres can pull off the upset, pass on this fight altogether.

Erin Blanchfield (-145)

In a just world, Blanchfield would come into this flyweight title eliminator as an undefeated fighter, having received the correct scorecards to win against Tracy Cortez back in 2019. This sport is a cruel one, and the lack of an “0” on her record might be what precluded her from already leapfrogging Taila Santos for championship contention. Since then, all the 24-year-old has done is dominate stiffer competition, with grappling that is leveling up before our very eyes. Throwing Miranda Maverick around like a wrestling dummy was an eye-opening experience, but pulling off three straight subs over solid opposition and stamping herself as a contender by running roughshod over Jessica Andrade was something else. Momentum is firmly on the side of the younger woman, and at her age, she already should have the tools to put Santos on ice for a while longer.

Santos was also a tough scorecard away from being champion, and as the distance from their June 2022 meeting grows, some have started to forget that she did work on then-champ Valentina Shevchenko. It is impossible to say how the Brazilian would have performed were it not for a nasty clash of heads that seemed to change the nature of Santos’ approach. Santos initially planned on getting back to action earlier, only for one of her cornermen to encounter visa issues that forced her to back out of their billing in February. The ex-title challenger may have surged her way into a shot at the throne thanks in part to some favorable matchmaking, but this is nothing to which the Astra Fight Team product is not accustomed. If the grappling of the ladies cancels out and this ends up being a plodding flyweight kickboxing match, Santos could pull ahead. However, the hyper-aggressive Blanchfield has yet to disappoint, and she even tapped out J.J. Aldrich, the only woman who stopped all of her takedown entries. Until Blanchfield runs into that impassable wall, all signs point to her getting her hand raised and claiming her crack at the strap.

Michal Oleksiejczuk (-115)

The onetime light heavyweight has been the epitome of a “rock-’em-sock-’em” type of brawler since joining the promotion in 2017, and he has largely lived up to that and brought his pop with him going down in weight. His Achilles heel is largely his defensive wrestling, but that should be an element that opponent Chidi Njokuani will not even consider exploiting. When in slugfests—beyond a technical kickboxing match where former Glory tourney winner Dustin Jacoby simply outworked him—Oleksiejczuk has largely punched his way towards victory. It is not the best of looks when most of the men you have beaten in the promotion are no longer members of its roster, but five first-round knockouts in six victories are nothing to sneeze at. When these two middleweights go at it, the younger, more durable “Hussar” has the edge. As this bout comes hovers around a pick-’em, the Polish fighter has the immediate value.

Most of the thrill about the well-traveled Njokuani cooled when Gregory Rodrigues—swinging back with a hole in his head—overcame “Chidi Chidi Bang Bang” and finished the show with a bang. A dispiriting split decision loss to Albert Duraev did not revive his stock, and the Nigerian-born knockout artist finds his back against the wall. Even though he will the taller man in the cage, Njokuani may be the smaller man come fight time. The heft for Oleksiejczuk plus his ability to seemingly walk through punishment and dole it out right back will be what takes its toll on Njokuani. It might be a step too far to suggest that Njokuani is a frontrunner, but it will be up to him to either dish it out to get an early stoppage or pull so far ahead on the scorecards that even a late comeback cannot overtake him. On the other side, while Njokuani will sport a major reach advantage, the Oleksiejczuk has experience getting in the face of rangier heavy hitters. The UFC put together a tried-and-true “blood and guts” matchup, and the more active, youthful and defensively sound striker has an advantage that makes him worthy of selection.