Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 224 ‘Aspinall vs. Tybura’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship built a heavy-duty event for its regular return to London Town, setting a bevy of fighters from the region against foreign opponents. The last 10 fights on the lineup all feature a representative of the United Kingdom against a variety of outlanders, and betting lines are all over the map. Join the UFC Fight Night 224 edition of Prime Picks as we make a chalky play in the co-main attraction, point out one very dangerous underdog and place faith in experience over youthful exuberance.

Molly McCann (-210)

For starters, the main event should be off the table here. Is Marcin Tybura a trap fight for the returning Tom Aspinall? The Brit is a tremendous -500 favorite—the largest on the overstuffed bout listing—and even trying to lock him down for a knockout is -150. What will happen should Aspinall not put Tybura away early? Can Tybura pull off the massive upset? The questions that loom do not take away from the confidence of Aspinall in a relative home game or put faith in the grinding Polish big man; and if anything, a flier at +360 on Tybura might be the more valuable option given that we are talking about heavyweights. With no decent recommendation on the headliner, we look to the co-main attraction, where McCann comes in as a decent but fair betting favorite against Lithuania armbar enthusiast Julija Stoliarenko.

The book may already be written for the 30-year-old Stoliarenko, who actually enters into this matchup a full three years younger than her opponent and also making her debut at flyweight. Armbar or bust is how she tends to roll, and every single one of those submissions occurred in the opening round. But for a blood-and-guts split decision victory over Lisa Verzosa—still one of the greatest women’s bouts in a major promotion, plain and simple—the bottom tends to fall out from Stoliarenko if she cannot get the quick tap she seeks. To wit, she has never recorded a stoppage any later than the 2:42 mark, which means that McCann just has to avoid any setups for the good part of three minutes and she should be home free.

McCann has never suffered a loss before her home country audience in the city of London, and the UFC has trotted her out on three previous occasions at the O2 Arena to increasingly deafening reactions. “Meatball” has only before surrendered to one submission in the past, when Erin Blanchfield completely styled on her in New York. Prior to that, Gillian Robertson did put her to sleep, and Robertson happens to celebrate the promotion’s record for the most submissions of any female fighter. The Liverpool representative’s takedown defense is hardly immaculate, but luckily for her, Stoliarenko’s wrestling is not one of her stronger attributes. As long as the favored woman—both on the line and in the building—does her homework to study that Stoliarenko is singularly focused on this sub-at-all-costs approach, she can fight to her best ability while sprawling and brawling to her heart’s content. Even as a favorite above -200, this is still a worthwhile option to pursue. On the other hand, if you think McCann will have a lapse in fight IQ, Stoliarenko wins by submission is +350.

DOUBLE PLAY (-121)

Andre Muniz-Paul Craig Does Not Go to Decision (-285)

Ketlen Vieira-Pannie Kianzad Goes to Decision (-285)

With a whole 15 bouts littered on this billing, there are a whole lot of lines at the disposal of savvy bettors. Some are tougher sells than others, a la Aspinall-Tybura, while others are decent but only when paired with something else. For the latter, there are a pair of bouts in which time elapsed or not elapsed is more important than selecting the victor. On the main card, submission specialist Muniz will welcome veritable magician Craig down to 185 pounds, even though the latter seemed to fill out quite well at light heavyweight beforehand. That new weight cut will add one more arrow in the quiver of expectations that the bout ends by stoppage. Given that Craig has pulled victory from the jaws of defeat more than once, the under of 1.5 or 2.5 might not be as wise as an outright finish. This line matches that of another pairing that will more than likely hear the final bell for a reasonable two-leg parlay.

Nothing is ever guaranteed in this sport. As we were reminded mere days ago, a fighter like Istela Nunes can post awkwardly when defending a takedown to find her elbow dislocated beyond recognition. Some can slip on figurative banana peels, or simply get caught. As far as the opening play on this accumulator, the bantamweight contest pitting Vieira against Kianzad seems like one of the safer options to go the distance. Win or lose, Vieira has gone to decision in five straight fights, and the only stoppage in the last five years came when Irene Aldana clocked her in 2019. On the other hand, the Swede formerly known as “Sexy Scramble” has involved the judges in every fight after her UFC debut in 2018, spanning eight straight matchups. Neither fighter has procured a knockdown under the UFC banner, and they have only attempted about five submissions in their combined tenures, with Vieira landing just one—against Sara McMann. If one wants a solo play involving this 135-pound pairing, Vieira at -155 is also a solid option, with her strength and grappling potentially giving her the edge.

Davey Grant (+125)

“Dangerous Davey” Grant is a dangerous test for anyone in the bantamweight division, and the recent new trainee at Syndicate MMA is far from done even at the age of 37. In the last few years, the only type of fighter to beat him is one capable of high volume, a high variety of strikes and the propensity to mix things up unexpectedly. Otherwise, Grant has learned to hit harder than an average bantamweight, picking up three-quarters of his career knockouts in three of his last four wins. Even holding the majority of his wins coming by submission, he earned his first in the Octagon when he put Raphael Assuncao to sleep with an inverted triangle choke in March. “Dangerous” is the right nickname, both as an adversary and as an underdog. In slight plus-money territory, Grant will attempt to do what 14 men thus far have failed to do: defeat Daniel Marcos.

A striker by trade, Marcos’ fists and feet fly fast and with little setup. Unlike the litany of headhunters in the sport today, the unbeaten Peruvian will gladly work the body to open things up over the top. By sheer impact alone, Marcos can win rounds, and he has displayed in two appearances in noteworthy leagues that he will not run out of steam looking for the early knockout. Luckily for him, Grant is a willing participant to stand in the pocket and exchange for prolonged periods. Far from a takedown artist, Grant is instead an opportunist who can turn nothing into something. It remains to be seen if Marcos can maintain a high pace when he is not leading every exchange, and how he holds up when someone presses him back. For Marcos to put “The Ultimate Fighter 18” finalist away with strikes would make him the first, and Grant can also take a zero away should he pull off the mild upset. As long as he does not fall off the oncoming age cliff this time out, what Grant brings to the table makes him a very live underdog.

Daniel Roberts (-115)

Some may be surprised that Roberts has been a member of the UFC since 2015, and it might also catch others unaware that he has put up an even 6-6 record since joining it. A pair of losses in 2022—the last of which was a crushing beatdown from the recently victorious Jack Della Maddalena—has put his career at a crossroads. He draws a newcomer while on home soil in a matchup that appears quite intentional from the matchmaking standpoint of giving locals as many winnable fireworks fights as they can reasonably muster. With more fights in the UFC than opponent Jonny Parsons has taken as a pro, Roberts has seen more than most, even if most remember him for the times other have shut his lights out. Parsons is a power puncher who would like nothing more than to slug it out and catch Roberts flush. As a result, this will be up to Roberts to stay technical, play matador to the bull and work behind his jab. At even money, Roberts is not the worst of options on the lineup.

In his contract-winning outing back in 2021, Parsons arguably dropped the first two rounds to Solomon Renfro. Ultimately coming on strong in the third frame, he had also convinced two of the three judges he had done enough against Renfro to get his hand raised. The split decision was enough to earn a place on the UFC roster, and he will make good on it over 15 months later than he expected. The path to get here was not the most trying, with two of the last four men he beat prior to DWCS sported losing records. It is one thing to take home a nine-minute decision verdict in Gladiator Challenge, quite another to make your debut against a battle-tested veteran who has seen tougher adversaries on paper. It is difficult to recommend placing a wager on any fighter returning after a layoff of over 18 months, and he has surpassed the 21-month margin. Roberts’ chin may not be what it used to be, and he does not celebrate a single victory over a man currently on the roster. Still, the Brit, who is currently at even odds, has the edge both in experience and versatility, making him the focus of this final selection.