Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 221 ‘Yan vs. Dvalishvili’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship stays in Las Vegas for its next card, but it will not post up at the UFC Apex or the T-Mobile Arena for the first time in years. An overstuffed UFC Fight Night with plenty of great options treats fans with an offering that sees just four matches presenting one favorite at -150 or less. The UFC Fight Night 221 edition of Prime Picks hones in on a direct way take home the prize in the main event, shines light on a pair of underdogs and revives a play from a couple weeks ago.

Petr Yan Wins by Decision (+115)

Before touching on this headliner, it would not be right if we did not reference the other main event in a major organization this weekend: Usman Nurmagomedov-Benson Henderson at Bellator 292. The fact that a former UFC champion, a man who was a split decision away from beating most competitors at 155 or 170 pounds, sits at +1100 odds is patently absurd. It might be an extension of the Nurmagomedov name or the fact that the champion is undefeated, but Henderson deserves better than he is receiving on that line. If anything, the odds on that championship attraction should be more similar to the UFC’s, where Yan serves as a comfortable -255 favorite against the streaking Merab Dvalishvili (+215) in a rough style matchup for the Georgian. Even so, Yan is too heavily favored to push outright, and drilling down, a win on the scorecards appears most likely against the durable Dvalishvili.

While fans may wonder who would win in a pure wrestling match between current champion Aljamain Sterling or Dvalishvili, they likely figure it out regularly in the gym. Whoever does hold the upper hand, those secrets are well-kept, but it stands to reason that if Yan can defend successfully from Sterling’s unorthodox tries, Dvalishvili’s more standard approaches should be a walk in the park. Against “Aljo,” Yan found himself hitting his back just three times after an astounding 39 attempts across nearly 45 minutes of combat. In fact, Yan turned the tables in their first go-round, forcing Sterling to the mat every time he tried. Yan could try to beat Dvalishvili at his own game, as the only man to ground “The Machine” more than once inside the Octagon defeated him.

Should this match remain as a grappling contest, time will positively rip from the clock as the two competitors battle for superior position. If Dvalishvili’s wrestling attempts are shut down and Yan does not wish to turn the tables, the Russian’s striking is vastly superior. Dvalishvili’s only hope of victory is that he tires Yan out before wearing himself out; however, this will be the Dvalishvili’s first jaunt beyond the 15-minute mark. If history is any indication, the Russian can shake off the veritable cornucopia of takedown efforts and continually make Dvalishvili pay for trying. Sterling’s awkward striking style gave Yan some pause, but Dvalishvili is much more of a means to an end striker who wants to collapse the pocket and shoot. It might not be thrilling to watch if Dvalishvili tries to lead the dance with takedown after failed takedown, but Yan has the chops to stop it and the experience to outlast his opponent ahead of a clear-cut decision win.

Alexander Volkov (+130)

Picking an upset a week after UFC 285, where every favored fighter other than Valentina Shevchenko won, may sound risky on paper. This co-main event, a collision between two men who should combine for over 500 pounds of heavyweight in the cage, is about as clear-cut a striker-versus-grappler match as one will get in the division let alone company. In many of those instances, grapplers are favored because they maintain the ability to move the fight where they want it, while the strikers have to stop their opponent from getting things going that way. Alexander Romanov often channels his inner Brock Lesnar by wanting to take foes to Suplex City, and he has done so against the lowest rungs of the weight class. A questionable loss to Marcin Tybura that should have ended as a draw aside, Romanov’s wild and crazy style has not worked against those who can stand their ground. Volkov is undoubtedly the best fighter the Moldovan has faced, and Romanov does not have the style that can follow Curtis Blaydes’ path to success against the tall Russian.

Perhaps more than any other heavyweight save Ciryl Gane, Volkov fights to his best physical advantages. A long jab and penetrating front kicks that Volkov effectively utilizes constantly allow him to reach many adversaries long before they can reach him. The five inches in the arms Volkov posts over Romanov will seem like a mile until the Moldovan can close in—and he will try. Until then, the Romanov’s bear-like swings and reckless actions will get him chin-checked frequently, as long as Volkov remains consistently moving laterally. Should Volkov back straight up, Romanov will lift him and throw him around like a sack of potatoes. “King Kong” with a full head of steam is a daunting test, but those energy reserves get sapped in a hurry when going for suplexes, high-amplitude slams and other wild maneuvers. Volkov will have to be smart, not allowing himself to get grounded early. Remember, Tom Aspinall took advantage of the grappling disparity when dry. Every minute the fight goes, confidence in “Drago” should grow, and he may even be able to procure a stoppage once Romanov is sucking wind.

Nikita Krylov-Ryan Spann Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-150)

These two were supposed to fight two weeks ago, but fight night illness struck and Krylov fell out hours before the match. Whether he has fully recovered or not, this condition might bode well for a quick night, and this pick is otherwise intact and will simply be re-suggested. Before September 2019, Krylov had remarkably never gone the distance as a professional and only entered the third round once in an incredible 32 bouts. This is his second stint on the roster; the first ended not because he was cut but because the man formerly known as “Al Capone” sought out greener pastures in Russia with Fight Nights Global. Since coming back, Krylov has displayed both patience and durability, and this has led to his going to a decision in four of his last six outings. When he does get the job done inside the distance, it tends to be in a hurry, with commentators likely remarking that he is not paid hourly. Against Spann, a fellow demolisher who has discovered crushing power of late, this rescheduled pairing has all the makings of one that will end early.

While Spann cannot quite celebrate four decisions in his pro career, his rates are not much worse, reaching the final bell in five of his 28 appearances. The last five walks to the cage have all concluded in the opening frame, while coming against elite competition like Anthony Smith, Dominick Reyes and Johnny Walker. Despite his massive size, Spann and former UFC fan-favorite Donald Cerrone share an unusual commonality. Before joining the UFC, Cerrone had never once performed a knockout, with all of his finishes by submission. It was not until he faced future champ Charles Oliveira that he landed a knockout, and he went on to amass 10 under the UFC banner. Spann, who easily cuts at least 20 pounds to reach the 206-pound mark, had only pulled off one knockout before introducing himself on Dana White’s Contender Series; now half of his career victories due to strikes are under the UFC flag.

Combined, these two have notched 38 first-round finishes, with 41 of 50 victories taking place under one and a half rounds. Neither man holds an indestructible chin or impermeable submission defense, and both can be susceptible to club-and-sub defeats or simply being out of position to take one on the chin. They come out of their respective corners shot out of proverbial cannons, and the final impact will be destructive and sudden. No longer with five rounds to work and measure one another, they will have to get after it immediately, and they likely will at a 215-pound catchweight. Both fighters display a penchant for getting hit and wanting to give it right back, and they are both more than willing to try things out on the ground should they get their bell rung. An early stoppage on either side is expected, and the line for the under is worthwhile. If one positively craves a pick for a victor, one could do worse than Spann seizing the upset and winning inside the distance at +175.

Guido Cannetti (+650)

As is often said, lower weight divisions are extremely unkind to the elderly. At the ripe age of 43, Argentina’s Cannetti is an anomaly and then some. Not only has he kept himself afloat recently, but he finds himself on a winning streak ahead of facing Mario Bautista. It might not seem as shiny considering both opponents he finished in 2022 are no longer on the roster, but Bautista’s own three-fight victorious run is only a hair better. It is undeniable the younger fighter wins more often in these circumstances, when they are over 10 years the junior of their adversary, but the odds presented are a bridge too far. While Bautista is putting things together in the Octagon with two impressive submissions in 2022 and a third over a fighter already cut from the roster, it is a bit absurd that he clocks in as a -1000 favorite. Those odds should only be reserved for obvious mismatches, short-notice step-ups or dominant champions, not a competitor on the undercard who was knocked out by the skidding Trevin Jones about two years ago.

The comparisons to Jim Miller are not all accurate, but there are similarities to what Cannetti has been able to accomplish at his age. The man known as “Ninja” appears to have a good round in him, and even though he was blasted in 2020 by Batgerel Danaa, it was his first knockout loss and not one of a long series of crushing defeats. Cannetti may be an all gas, no brakes type of competitor, but Bautista can be blitzed and taken out. Of late, Bautista has favored testing out his fast-improving ground game, and Cannetti can keep him honest for as long as his energy reserves are intact. For as dangerous as the Argentinian is, especially in the early going, it makes him a solid candidate for this massive betting upset.