Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 218 ‘Lewis vs. Spivak’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship changes its internal clock with a show initially slated for Seoul, only to end up at the UFC Apex. With four finals of the “Road to UFC” show from Asia dumped on the prelims, this lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Save for the main event, only one other bout on the billing brings ranked competitors, and betting lines are all over the map. Far too many unknowns and unanswered questions will likely stave off hungry bettors on this card, so the UFC Fight Night 218 edition of Prime Picks will run shorter so that focus can be split with the counterprogrammed Bellator MMA card going on in California.

Derrick Lewis Wins by KO/TKO (+250)

While not likely on the chopping block with another loss, the soon-to-be 38-year-old Lewis undoubtedly has his back against the wall in this rebooked main attraction. Due to his level of achievement and multiple failed title opportunities, Lewis will not get many steps down in competition until the bitter end. He faces Sergey Spivak, a powerful young Moldovan on the edge of the Top 15 who has developed in a big way over the years, physically and technically. Even as recent as 14 months ago, Lewis may have found himself as a betting favorite due to Spivak’s chin-first approach at times. Instead, “The Black Beast” is a heavy underdog (+195), with Spivak putting enough momentum together for bettors to believe the man 10 years Lewis’ junior can pull something off. While Spivak has improved substantially, power is the last thing to go, and that happens to be Lewis’ specialty.

While Lewis’ takedown defense is not ironclad and this is an avenue Spivak could exploit, it is still solid in the early rounds. Should the fight go later, his explosion-based defense system starts to short-circuit, and he can find himself on his back for lengthier stretches. Lewis does maintain a remarkable ability to simply decide that the grappling exchange is over, doing so by throwing the person on top of him off with sheer force of will and a great deal of strength. This escape style, too, falls off a cliff as fights progress, but forcing things back on the feet and into his preferred wheelhouse to throw hands is what he needs to get it done. All Lewis needs is to entice Spivak into one single brawl, and he can pull off the upset win. The Houstonian still possesses one-shot knockout ability, while Spivak generally earns his strike stoppages from an accumulation of damage.

The safest bets in this match may not be of one specific victor but rather that the fight ends before the final bell. However, the specific pick of any stoppage materializing is too high at -515, and even the under of 3.5 rounds—meaning the match concludes by 2:30 of Round 4—is a hefty -350. Safe is not always rewarding. It cannot be understated that Lewis will always hold the trump card of fight-ending power, and his UFC record of 13 knockouts is not an accident. The specific line of the Lewis knockout may not be available on every sportsbook, and it ranges from +200 to +265, which might be better or worse than Lewis getting a finish (around +230) if you shop around. Spivak’s approaches get more rudimentary as fights progress and he fatigues, and rushing towards Lewis with your hands down and chin up is a recipe for disaster. In typical “Black Beast” fashion, Lewis might very well be losing up until putting the Moldovan out, but the end result is all that matters.

Blagoy Ivanov vs. Marcin Tybura Goes to Decision (-185)

As it turns out, heavyweights will claim the majority of the betting focus this weekend, including the aforementioned main event, this “featured fight” on the card and the headliner of Bellator’s first foray on CBS less than 300 miles away. Even though these two competitors sport finish rates of 63% and 65%, respectively, that percentage has plummeted since joining the Las Vegas-based league. In their last 12 combined bouts—Ivanov has fought six times in the promotion thus far—the two big men have gone the distance in 10 of those outings. Both of those stoppages came from Tybura, who did so by wrenching Greg Hardy and Walt Harris to the mat to unload on them. This is not likely something the Polish fighter will be able to achieve at length against Ivanov. Instead, this has the makings of a slow affair where much of the match takes place tied up against the wall.

Although not perfect, Ivanov’s solid takedown defense and active get-up game has allowed him to stay off his back for long stretches in any of his recent matches. One of the few landed on him inside the Octagon came in a late-stage lift-and-slam maneuver from Marcos Rogerio de Lima in an effort to make a lasting impression on the judges in the final frame, but it was not quite enough for the Brazilian to get his hand raised. Tybura’s best path to victory is when claiming top position, and it also the most likely way that a finish materializes from either side. Ivanov’s technical boxing is sufficient to keep him safe as long as the fight remains upright, and he even floored Tai Tuivasa in their 2019 encounter. Barring a “Hulk Smash” moment in which Tybura throws his foe to the mat and pounds him out early, this heavyweight pairing has all the makings of one that will last 15 long minutes. If one wishes to maximize value in the form of a two-part parlay involving this play, look no further than roping in Ji Yeon Kim-Mandy Bohm Goes to Decision (-350), as well, as that probable two-leg accumulator settles around a pristine -102 right now.