Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 210 ‘Sandhagen vs. Song’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship keeps its energy high after an exhausting pay-per-view card on Sept. 10, as it sets up shop inside the UFC Apex this Saturday in Las Vegas. The 14 bouts currently on the lineup for UFC Fight Night 210 provide plenty of tantalizing betting options, with only two competitors favored above -220. This edition of Prime Picks brings four intriguing lines to light, including the favored headliner, a middleweight banger that will end with one man face down, a heavyweight striker who can play the matador to a Brazilian bull and a fiery dyed redhead who can chalk up one more stoppage to her record total.

Cory Sandhagen (-185)

This main event for Sandhagen represents a crossroads matchup, as the 30-year-old could find himself years away from another top opportunity should he fall short to Yadong Song. Fortunately, he will take a step down in competition from former champions to a rising talent in Song who would like nothing more than to throw hands with him. The knockout power has developed for both competitors lately, although they only sport fair stoppage rates due to strikes: 43% for Sandhagen and 42% for Song, with both of their resumes bolstered by recent dramatic knockouts. Of the two, only Song has ever been knocked out—against a far more experienced Andrei Pulpudnikov, who has a tendency to do that to people. When sheer volume and aggression come head-to-head, the faster and more accurate of the two tends to gain the upper hand fast. Sandhagen has displayed his ability to maintain a high work rate and keep his foot on the gas for five full rounds, so as long as he does not drift above 2-to-1 favorite territory, his moneyline is worth it atop the card.

At Team Alpha Male, Song does appear to have put it all together. To date, he has only struggled with two skillsets: a quick takedown artist who can doggedly pursue mat returns when he works his way up or a wily striker who hits deceptively hard. In relation to the latter, many watching his 2020 featherweight scrap with Marlon Vera scored it in favor of “Chito,” but it was a close-enough fight, with the second round being the swing round. While his volume can be up to par for three full rounds, it remains to be seen if “Kung Fu Kid” can keep up a pace for 25 minutes—a feat he will almost certainly have to pursue given Sandhagen’s durability and evasiveness. Song will have to get inside of his taller, longer adversary and do work while not sitting on his heels and patiently looking for strikes.

Sandhagen would be well-suited to fully utilize his range, with kicks and jabs to keep a hard-charging Song at bay. There are, however, two versions of Song that can approach a fight. There is the iteration that will blaze forward and put Marlon Moraes away in two minutes, or the version that lands just enough to get two judges on his side. He will have no such luxury of an opponent willing to let him off the hook for long, as Sandhagen can cross the century mark for significant strikes in a real hurry. Unless Song’s power is truly special and he can do what no other opponent has done to Sandhagen, this should be a fun striking scrap that shows “The Sandman” is just a step ahead.

Gregory Rodrigues-Chidi Njokuani Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-180)

About a week before it was set to come together, this middleweight slugfest now finds itself as the co-main attraction. Other than a little more spotlight on the two, the stakes are the same, and a spot among the Top 15 at 185 pounds looms for the victor. It has taken Njokuani just a hair over five minutes in total to record two crushing knockouts over Marc-Andre Barriault and Dusko Todorovic in the UFC, and of his 15 stoppages, just one has come after 2:30 of Round 3. On the other hand, “RoboCop” Rodrigues and his 83% finish rate includes every one of those below the midpoint of the third frame. Neither man has an indestructible chin but both possess one-hitter quitter power, so the line of under 2.5 rounds appears to be a safer play than an outright pick.

It is not an accident that the last five finishes for the Brazilian have been by clean knockout, with nary a technical qualifier in the bunch. The same can be said for Njokuani’s total UFC run to date, even though it is a sample of just two. They should both be aware of the power present on the other side of the cage, which could lead to a tentative early stage of the bout. Under 1.5 rounds may be a bit too risky if neither man is willing to pull the trigger to any appreciable degree in first round and so, but eventually, they will settle in and start slinging leather. If Rodrigues sneaks in takedowns and slows Njokuani down, it could drag things out to the distance, but it is more likely that if “RoboCop” hits takedowns, he can put an end to the match with his destructive ground-and-pound. One way or another, the judges should not play a factor at night’s end for these middleweights.

Tanner Boser (-165)

Rodrigo Nascimento’s three-fight UFC career has been a tumultuous one to date, with his promising undefeated record and 100% finish rate completely derailed by the fists of rising knockout artist Chris Daukaus in 2020. While he came back some nine months later and ran through Alan Baudot, testing positive for the stimulant Ritalin further tripped him up. Nascimento may have received a therapeutic use exemption since then, and he now draws a mullet-sporting Canadian in Boser. To be somewhere better than Don'Tale Mayes and worse than Daukaus is veritable chasm of talent, even at heavyweight, so a relatively more established name in Boser should be too stiff of a test.

If his six first-round finishes in under four minutes are any indication, Nascimento wants nothing more than to charge out like his hair is on fire, grab hold of Boser and drag him to the mat. With the majority of his wins coming due to tapout, he will need to walk through jabs and frustrating distance-keeping kicks in order to close in. While “Yogi Bear” sports a five-inch reach advantage, Boser is the one who might seem like the longer man in the cage if he utilizes his range effectively. Once “The Bulldozer” gets in his rhythm of a slow but methodical approach of chipping away, using footwork and ample head movement, Nascimento might fall victim to giving chase until time is up. Unless he can wrench Boser down and either catch him in a scramble or keep him there for an extended amount of time, the Canadian can continue where Baudot left off by destroying Nascimento’s lead leg. As a moderate favorite, a prop is not necessary; if one wants to maximize a play on the Canadian, go for Boser scoring the knockout at +150.

Gillian Robertson Wins Inside Distance (+130)

Both Robertson and Mariya Agapova still seem to have the “prospect” tag attached, despite the latter being a four-fight UFC vet and the former holding the flyweight divisional record for the most finishes. The younger Agapova has seen holes in her game not simply exposed but ripped open for the world to see, as crushing second-round setbacks against Shana Dobson and Maryna Moroz sent her back to the drawing board. The Kazakhstan-born Agapova and her 80% finish rate will get all she bargained for when she faces the brilliantly red-haired Robertson, who holds an identical rate of stoppage. While “The Savage” can be controlled and nullified, she is in luck here: Agapova is not that type of fighter. Before the final bell sounds, Robertson can capitalize on an error and pull a win out of thin air.

Agapova is a wild-and-crazy aggressor to a fault once the fight begins. Flipping the switch seems to place a video game-style energy gauge above her head, which rapidly diminishes as Agapova engages recklessly. Charging takedowns, high-risk attacks and nothing but power has worked to her disadvantage since leaving the Invicta Fighting Championships ranks, as she could overcome the likes of Hannah Cifers and Sabina Mazo but fell short anytime an opponent hit so much as a single takedown on her. Robertson, a grappler with barely means-to-an-end striking, will bowl forward in pursuit of a clinch exchange that can drag the fight to the mat. While not a conventional takedown artist, in the same vein as many Brazilian jiu-jitsu players of the past, she forces scrambles and creates situations that end up with her on the mat. The match could come to a close via strikes if “The Savage” claims top position and pours it on with elbows, making a Robertson by submission pick at +170 a bit too risky. The plus money for a win inside the distance is still worthwhile.