Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 201 ‘Walker vs. Hill’

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday is putting on a fight card on in Las Vegas one way or another. Counterprogrammed with a Bellator MMA offering that does not particularly stand out from the pack, this weekend’s events may not have much in name value but still bring some valuable underdog considerations. A pair of plus-money picks—one for the moneyline who has potential to spring the upset and the other for a grizzled vet who will not go gentle into that good night—round out an uneven but hopefully action-packed UFC Fight Night 201 show at the UFC Apex.

Johnny Walker (+205)

Since vaulting himself into the rankings with a trio of nasty knockout wins, Walker has encountered test after dangerous test in the UFC’s top-heavy light heavyweight division. Following a spectacular flying knee of Misha Cirkunov in 2019, the Brazilian has largely struggled, with a contentious win over Ryan Spann set between three increasingly deflating losses to Bellator’s Corey Anderson, Ukrainian finisher Nikita Krylov and ex-title challenger Thiago Santos. Most troubling is his most recent setback, as it came following his move to SBG Ireland, and he dropped a drag of a decision in which he practically never pulled the trigger, landing a paltry seven significant head shots in a five-round fight. Fears abound about the high-flying Walker being stifled by a more strategically minded approach, a la Michel Pereira, but someone who will push the pace on him—in the form of Jamahal Hill—can bring out his inner wild man.

“Sweet Dreams” washed the horrid taste of defeat out of his mouth in December, punching out rising Aussie Jimmy Crute in under a minute. To a degree, the knockout stemmed the bleeding from his troubling loss to Paul Craig in which he succumbed to an armbar that horribly dislocated his arm. However, referee Al Guinee proved so negligent that he allowed the limb to dangle lifelessly as “Bearjew” pummeled Hill with elbows and punches to record a dreadfully late stoppage in the same vein of Anderson Silva against Travis Lutter. Hill’s right hand is the moneymaker, and at least for two rounds, he throws it of a comparable velocity to Anderson—the only person to deck Walker in the last five years.

Walker will need to approach this fight with caution and not walk into strikes that will ring his bell. A hands-down-chin-up strategy will fail him against a heavy-handed slugger who has never attempted a takedown on the major stage. The two have that in common, as Walker is 1-for-1 on takedowns since moving up to the big leagues, with that coming in his audition fight against Henrique da Silva in 2018. Unlike Santos, who can be gun-shy at times, Hill can be aggressive nearly to a fault as he chases foes in search of a finish. This might play into Walker’s hands, as he plays the counter game at times with flashy strikes; however, fighting off his back foot is a difficult proposition for the Brazilian. It might not be worth more than a flier, depending on which version of Walker shows up, but he has power and speed to put anyone’s lights out in a hurry. With recent five-round experience under his belt, he could also outlast Hill in a battle of attrition, as long as he turns the volume up after the second round.

Jim Miller Wins Inside Distance (+320)

Stop us if you have heard this one: This lightweight “featured fight” will bring the greatest discrepancy of Octagon experience in history, as Miller is a 38-fight UFC veteran and Nikolas Motta has yet to set foot inside the Octagon. There is a caveat. Unlike Miller’s last foe, Erick Gonzalez, Motta fought his way to the promotion through Dana White’s Contender Series to get this fight. Even though Motta will be competing in the same building in which he earned a UFC contract, it was technically under a different banner—one the UFC likes to delineate and even run as a separate company, despite the fact that the differences are minimal for these “Dana White’s Saturday Contender Series”-type shows. The UFC is not doing “Iron Motta” any favors by having him face Miller in his promotional debut, as the post-Lyme disease New Jersey native is even more aggressive than he was when younger.

Every one of Miller’s wins dating back to 2016 has come inside the distance, and his knockout of Gonzalez in Round 2 was the first he had recorded beyond the opening frame. This incarnation of “A-10” has turned into a finish-or-bust machine, and his durability against anyone outside of the Top 10 has been stellar. Motta has yet to fall short on the scorecards, with knockouts and a submission the only ways he has been beaten to date. Although Miller is not known for his knockout power, as soon as play-by-play commentator stated, “Miller still packing a punch at 38,” color analyst Michael Bisping disagreed with: “Eh, I don’t know.” Miller then lamped Gonzalez with one punch. This appears to be a two-outcome type of fight where Miller catches the newcomer early or Motta outlasts the gradually fatiguing vet to take a decision. The latter would bring forth odds of +215, should one expect Motta gets his hand raised. While the organization appears to be using Miller to tee up new prospects, the overwhelming gatekeeper is shutting them down left and right, and he can do it one more time here.