Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 144

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship makes its first trip of 2019 to Brazil when it touches down this Saturday night in Fortaleza for UFC Fight Night 144. The card features an intriguing main event between ranked bantamweights Marlon Moraes and Raphael Assuncao, as well as a terrific co-main event scrap between former UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo and top contender Renato Carneiro. There are also a number of exciting matchups on the undercard, and the oddsmakers have released odds for all 13 bouts on the card. Check out some of my favorite plays on the card in the UFC Fight Night 144 edition of Prime Picks.

David Teymur (+100)

At even money, I think Teymur is a shrewd pick to defeat Charles Oliveira. I understand why the Brazilian is slightly favored in the intriguing lightweight matchup, but I believe the value is on Teymur. I have been impressed with the Swede since he joined the UFC in 2016, as he’s gone 5-0 and has displayed a well-rounded skill set in his victories. He has excellent takedown defense, which allows him to keep his fights standing, where he can use his striking skills to either knock his opponents out or outpoint them. It has got to the point where I believe other lightweights don’t want to fight Teymur because he’s a tough stylistic matchup for anyone in the division, yet he hasn’t beaten anyone notable enough to jump in the rankings. That’s probably why he hasn’t fought since last June despite being healthy and ready to go. So, credit to Oliveira for stepping up and fighting Teymur when no one else wants to.

Considering the roll Oliveira has been on, with three straight submission wins, he has a lot of confidence at the moment and probably feels like he can beat anyone in the division. However, we’ve seen him in this kind of matchup before, such as his bout at UFC 152 against Cub Swanson, and the results haven’t been pretty. When “Do Bronx” is pressured he can break, and I believe Teymur is going to do that to him. This is a similar style matchup to the Paul Felder fight that Oliveira lost not too long ago, and I see Teymur potentially knocking him out just as the American did. At +100 odds, I think there’s good value on the Swede to win this fight.

Johnny Walker (-200)

In a light heavyweight bout, I see Walker beating Justin Ledet. After Walker’s last fight, a breakthrough performance in a knockout win over Khalil Rountree, I’m all aboard his bandwagon. Walker is riding a six-fight win streak at the moment with five of those wins coming by stoppage. In fact, 14 of his career wins have come by either knockout or submission. At only 26, he’s right in his athletic prime, and he’s set to become a star for the UFC with his flashy striking style and entertaining personality. He has lost in the past, and at 205 pounds anyone can get knocked out, but he’s still one of the best prospects that the light heavyweight division has to offer at the moment. For a minute there, Ledet looked to be a promising prospect himself after he won three straight fights to open his UFC career at heavyweight, but the move to light heavyweight has been disastrous so far. He suffered one of the most lopsided decisions in UFC history when he lost to Aleksandar Rakic 30-24 on all scorecards. “El Blanco” has skills, so he could bounce back at some point, but after such a bad performance in his last time out, you just can’t trust him right now at light heavyweight. Walker has more momentum right now and fighting in Brazil should fire him up. Give me Walker at -200 odds to get the nod in this one.

Max Griffin (-200)

In welterweight action, I like Griffin to get his hand raised over Thiago Alves. “Pain” only has a 2-3 record in the UFC, but he lost to three very solid fighters in Colby Covington, Curtis Millender and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. There’s no shame in losing to those fighters. In victory, Griffin beat Mike Perry and Erick Montano and looked really good in those bouts. I think Griffin is a solid fighter, albeit just outside of the top 15. For me, though, this is a straight fade on Alves. At 35, and after over a decade of fighting in the UFC, I don’t believe he has much left in the tank. He’s lost four of his last five, with his only win in the last three years coming against the now retired Patrick Cote. Once a knockout artist, Alves hasn’t finished a fight since 2015, and there’s no reason to believe that’s going to change anytime soon. His chin has also become an issue, losing by brutal knockout to Millender last year. Griffin is the fresher fighter, and despite stepping into the home country of Alves, I like him to get his hand raised here. I believe Griffin can use a combination of wrestling and striking to outpoint “Pitbull” and win a decision. At -200 Griffin is certainly someone to consider for your parlays.

Lyman Good (+155)

As far as an underdog pick goes, I’m eyeing Good to beat Demian Maia in a welterweight bout. This is partly a fade on Maia, as well as betting on an underrated fighter in Good. As far as the grappler goes, he’s 41 years-old now and riding a three-fight losing skid. To be fair, Maia has lost to top talent in Tyron Woodley, Kamaru Usman and Covington, but he hasn’t looked good at all in those fights. As for Good, he’s looked really, ahem, good in the UFC with a 2-1 record. He brutally knocked out Ben Saunders in his last outing, bouncing back from a split decision loss to dos Santos before that. We all know Maia is a grappling ace, but “Cyborg” has never been submitted before. In the striking department there’s no question that Good has the advantage. I like Good to stuff the takedown attempts of the Brazilian, keep the fight standing, and either outpoint him for a decision or possibly even get the knockout. At +155 odds I see some value on Good here.

Adam Martin is a mixed martial arts journalist who has been covering the sport since 2011. He is currently the lead odds analyst for Sherdog.com as well as the lead staff writer for MMAOddsbreaker.com. Adam is also the co-host of “The Parting Shot Podcast” on iTunes. His favorite fight of all time is Dan Henderson vs. Shogun Rua and he wishes Pride never died. Adam is based out of Toronto, Ontario, Canada, and he is a graduate of the University of Toronto and Centennial College. Get in touch with him on Twitter @MMAdamMartin.