Prime Picks: UFC 308 ‘Topuria vs. Holloway’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship rests its hopes of a blockbuster card on the shoulders of two featherweight greats this Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. With a well-matched lineup that should provide some close contests, it might come as surprise that there is only one bout of 13 where a favorite is any closer than -150. Weighing some of the wide lines at our disposal, the UFC 308 edition of Prime Picks sees upsets in the crystal ball for the two five-rounders, as well as a called shot for an unbeaten British contender.

STRAIGHT-UP CASH

Lerone Murphy Wins by Decision (-160)

A one-sided victory for Murphy over fan-favorite soul-taker Edson Barboza put him on the map in the talent-stuffed 145-pound division. Over-hyphenation aside, it was a statement pillar-to-post performance that made the unbeaten Brit one more name to watch. More than doubling up on significant strikes against a vaunted hitter like Barboza over four of five rounds is a feat in itself, and he did not incur substantial damage while doing so. Even if no one facet of Murphy’s game would receive top marks by some arbitrary scoring mechanism, it is safe to say the well-rounded competitor would at least get a seven out of 10 in every category. This mixing of the martial arts is just what he will need to get past underdog Dan Ige.

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway Saturday at 2 PM ET on ESPN+. Order Now!
Ige has never been finished as a professional, even though he has tangled with heavier hitters (Barboza, Josh Emmett, Chan Sung Jung) and savvier grapplers (Bryce Mitchell, Damon Jackson). Every man to beat him has had to endure the full fight length, sometimes surviving comebacks or hanging onto narrow leads to get there. The power-punching Hawaiian may be fairly solid when it comes to defense, but his ground game would likely be considered his weakness. Training at Xtreme Couture has improved his get-up game, but those who want to take him down can usually do so repeatedly—and those who have done so have largely beaten him, with an exception for Mirsad Bektic in a razor-close clash. Murphy will want to exploit that grappling deficiency, but he has not always shown to have the killer instinct of hunting for a finish as soon as he gets the fight where he wants it.

When moving up in competition, stoppages have largely dried up for “The Miracle.” While he rearranged Ricardo Ramos’ face while on the mat in his sophomore appearance and caught the chin-reliant Makwan Amirkhani with a flush knee, he has otherwise involved the judges. Where Murphy excels is when he sets up his strikes using his takedowns while simultaneously initializing his ground game courtesy of his hands and feet. Getting Ige to think about shots will allow Murphy to let his hands go, and striking his way into close range can permit the Brit to shoot in on his foe’s hips. If Murphy does not ultimately celebrate the smashing machine aspect of the fight game, he makes up for it in tenacity and a willingness to be right in front of his opponents, making them deal with something until the bitter end. Ige is tough as nails and stronger men have tried, but this stylistic matchup is such that Murphy can stay on the gas and do the outworking. It does not appear that the UFC has done Ige any favors after he saved UFC 303 for the company in June.

STRAIGHT-UP PASS

Khamzat Chimaev (-250)

A five-round fight involving Chimaev should generally favor his opponent if two things are true: if “Borz” paces himself like he has previous outings, and if the man across the cage from him has the wherewithal to push for five rounds. With this in mind, one of the worst possible threats for Chimaev is Robert Whittaker, a battle-tested former champion with ample five-round experience and practically legendary recoverability. Based on past appearances, the first round is where Chimaev will have his greatest success, but putting away Whittaker in the first round is something no one has done at 185 pounds. Every minute that ticks off the clock should inspire confidence in a Whittaker pick—or the over of 2.5 rounds that sits at -110.

Even though Whittaker has lost three times as a UFC middleweight, he has not gone down to anyone other than a champion in Israel Adesanya (twice)—the second loss was extremely close—and Dricus Du Plessis. Many heavy hitters have tried to knock his block off, and although he tends to get hit and hurt in most of his fights, he has the sensibility to push through the pain and figure out how to come back stronger. Whittaker’s takedown defense is outstanding but not impenetrable, and a rampaging Chimaev very well may set him on his seat early. Whittaker has an excellent ability to work back to his feet without remaining on his back for long, and forcing Chimaev to exert any additional energy hunting for level changes will work to his benefit. There are better options than putting down on Chimaev, especially at these odds and especially against “Bobby Knuckles.”

’DOG WILL HUNT

Max Holloway (+200)

We picked in favor of an upset for Renan Ferreira and a slight favorite call of Larissa Pacheco in the Professional Fighters League on Oct. 19, defying the betting advice given by fear breá garbh in Sean Sheehan. Sheehan nailed both of his picks, and although the logic held up on how we made our own selections, this is the fight game. It is only fitting that on a big week like UFC 308, we again go head-to-head on betting advice. When our Irishman put down for Ilia Topuria and Chimaev, we instead threw our hats in the ring for Whittaker and Holloway. Let’s see how it works out this time.

Holloway has not been this sizeable of an underdog since he faced Conor McGregor at UFC Fight Night 26 in 2013. This includes when the Hawaiian took on Jose Aldo, Alexander Volkanovski three times, Dustin Poirier up in weight and Justin Gaethje. The line seems inflated, but this is likely due to how Topuria picked up the belt—by destroying Volkanovski in a way no one had seen before at featherweight. Perhaps it was because Volkanovski came back too soon after a knockout at the foot of Islam Makhachev or that he underestimated his opponent, but he never seemed truly in the fight against Topuria. Unless the weight cut back to 145 pounds frazzles Holloway, he should be a willing, nearly indestructible player who will put numbers on Topuria like no one has before. As he exits his prime years, Holloway has discovered an additional modicum of punching power, making him just that more threatening on the feet. Considering no one in over a decade has thoroughly outwrestled Holloway, and few have beaten him on the feet, this is choice territory in a big plus-money play on the “Blessed Express.”

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION:

Geoff Neal (-310)

Farid Basharat (-700)

Ibo Aslan-Raffael Cerqueira Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-385)

Total Odds: -111

A few years ago, Rafael dos Anjos would be a trap fight for anyone who does not have better wrestling than he does. Turning 40 on fight night, however, the former lightweight kingpin has slowed considerably, both defensively and offensively. Vicente Luque, a man typically known for his wild striking and opportunistic submission game, handily outwrestled RDA. The Brazilian giving up a combined 19 takedowns in his last two performances does not draw confidence, nor does his getting outstruck in the process. Neal, a younger, sharper striker who can transform himself into a veritable stone wall when faced with takedown attempts, is the perfect foil for an aging dos Anjos. As such, “Handz of Steel” is a suitable anchor for this three-piece parlay that includes another huge favorite and the expectation of something violent on the prelims.

The largest betting favorite on the card, Basharat comes in at a nearly prohibitive -700, one that basically has a place on accumulators or is skipped altogether. If evaluating their skill sets openly and honestly, the younger man born in Afghanistan should have the upside anywhere the fight goes. Basharat competes with a swagger about him of an unbeaten fighter who knows he still has more to demonstrate, and Victor Hugo is the right man to set in front of him as a showcase matchup. While calling himself “Striker,” Hugo’s first love is grappling, and he is happy to collect any limb that is available for his taking. As long as Basharat does not make a grave errors should this hit the mat, he can cruise to victory and end the extremely long winning streak of the Brazilian.

Aslan and Cerqueira have posted 23 of their combined 24 wins inside the distance. In those 23 stoppages, they have never once needed more than 12:30 to get the job done, with 19 of those coming in Round 1. Eager to impress the UFC brass and the sure-to-be loud crowd in the Etihad Arena, these light heavyweights with little regard for defense will swing with everything they have right out of the gate. Boom, pow, kick punch wow, it’s a super parlay three.