Prime Picks: UFC 297 ‘Strickland vs. Du Plessis’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship stages its first pay-per-view show of 2024 by shipping up to Toronto for the first time in over five years. The first seven bouts feature one Canadian against a foreign foe, with nine such matchups overall, and it comes as no surprise that eight of those are favored. Join the UFC 297 edition of Prime Picks, where we do not pick a single Canuck but navigate much of the main card for more pristine seas in the form of “and new” at night’s end.

STRAIGHT-UP CASH

Chris Curtis (-185)

It might be surprising to some that between Curtis and Canadian opponent Marc-Andre Barriault, the latter holds the higher career knockout and finish rate. Memorable drubbings of names like Brendan Allen and Joaquin Buckley re-established Curtis as a fighter to watch at middleweight, even if he is on the wrong end of 35. Many did not think a fighter like Curtis could reach the confines of the Octagon, let alone excel or be ranked among the best athletes in the world. “The Action Man” overcame a heap of adversity and got his hand raised when he needed it most. However, just one win in his last four has shown there might be a ceiling in play for the Xtreme Couture export, although it is one that, on paper, is well above Barriault. With odds under 2-to-1, Curtis is well worth throwing down on.

While Curtis may struggle against Top 10 adversaries, Barriault struggles against those not on the leaderboard. He carries an appropriate nickname of “Power Bar,” as he tends to throw caution to the wind to engage and does not always manage his power bar. This got him into trouble against Anthony Hernandez and Jun Yong Park when he met his equals or perhaps saw himself outgunned. The .500 record in the Octagon, coupled with his resume thus far, does not bode well for Barriault as the unfavored fighter.

Like Barriault in several matches in the past, Curtis encountered adversaries that stayed in his face for all three rounds while putting up volume that he did not match. His takedown defense largely held up—Nassourdine Imavov remains the lone fighter in the UFC who has grounded Curtis despite many past attempts—and this will allow him to keep the fight on the feet, as he has no interest in moving things horizontally. In a straight-up gunslinger bout where the two are toe-to-toe swinging with bad intentions, Curtis should have the edge in his fists, displaying a stunning, if not disabling, power throughout his tenure. This is a step down in competition for Curtis and one he should meet and excel in, whether this goes 15 seconds or all 15 minutes.

STRAIGHT-UP PASS

Movsar Evloev (-210)

The undefeated Russian may yet be a future contender and possibly even champ, and he comes into this main card meeting with Arnold Allen with a modicum of momentum behind him. The finishes have completely eluded Evloev since joining the roster in 2019, with eight wins all by decision. Despite his inability to procure a stoppage, it has not been for lack of trying, as he has already racked up 33 takedowns, including 31 at featherweight, good for sixth-most in the division’s history. Evloev is not simply a grinder; he maintains a constant disruptive pace with plenty of offense from his hands and feet. While he is rightfully favored against Britain’s Allen, at these odds, there are better paths to take.

Allen did not quite qualify for the “Dog Will Hunt” section because of the clear and direct path that Evloev has to take to win the fight. Allen’s takedown defense has improved over the years, but with just Nik Lentz as a recent example of its leveling up, it is hard to see where it actually stands. Evloev is a dog with a bone in his ground attack, chaining takedowns together and fully prepared to secure a mat return should his grounded adversary pop right back to his feet. He is a pass, however, because Allen also has a distinct path to victory. If Allen can keep his distance and stave off early attempts to discourage Evloev from trying or, to quote Laura Sanko, “advertise the price of admission,” he can make the former M-1 Global champion think twice about his bread-and-butter approach. Allen hits deceptively hard compared to his knockout rate, and stinging Evloev after failed attempts will go far. There are better options to bet, and if one is dead set on betting on this specific fight, there is an option in the parlay.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Dricus Du Plessis (+105)

There may be some choice underdog picks on this card, like the durable Raquel Pennington potentially taking favorite Mayra Bueno Silva into deep waters or Priscila Cachoeira hitting fairly hard as a +295 ’dog. Those do not have the same flair as the headlining match, which sees Du Plessis as the liveliest underdog on the lineup. It might surprise some to see “Stillknocks” float into plus-money territory, given his body of work in the Octagon. As the South African showed in July, he can beat any middleweight on the roster, including the ultra-tough Robert Whittaker. Du Plessis can pull off the slight upset to win the middleweight throne.

It is a surprising blend of high-octane offense with the ability—at least displayed thus far—to maintain a torrid pace without fading much. The challenger has only heard the final bell once after 22 pro fights, and it was in a bout that could have been stopped several times against Brad Tavares. Du Plessis will need to get on the inside and not allow Sean Strickland to set a rhythm of jabs and low kicks. The Team CIT fighter will need to pressure early and often, which is a huge plus because that is his primary goal in all his fights. The last few days, Strickland has shown to be unfocused, paying more attention to welterweights or childhood trauma than the man standing across the cage from him. When Strickland lets his foot off the gas, Du Plessis can knock his block off or trap him in a submission after a wild scramble. With the offense that “Stillknocks” brings to the table, he is the prime candidate for the underdog selection on the card.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION:

Pennington-Bueno Silva Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-475)

Allen-Evloev Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-700)

Malcolm Gordon-Jimmy Flick Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-275)

Total Odds: -113

A factor of time is the theme we follow for this parlay, much like UFC 296. Three fights with various overs or unders, expecting a match will take a while or that it will not hear the final bell, suit this three-piece with Diet Rite. The anchor is the co-main event, assuming that Pennington will not succumb to an early submission from the Brazilian. “Rocky” has faced several elite grapplers over the years, and Cat Zingano is the only one to make her say “Mattei”—over a decade ago. Bueno Silva is deceptive about her submission setups, moving in only to suddenly switch gears and drop for a leglock or press in for an unorthodox ninja choke. In her nine UFC appearances, Bueno Silva has hit this under four times, although the level of competition plays a factor. Even at the tender age of 35, Pennington has shown no signs of falling into submission traps, and she has fought beyond 2:30 of Round 2 in her last 14 appearances.

Taking the middle slot in this accumulator is a shot on the Evloev-Allen pairing mentioned above. As outlined, grabbing either man outright may be a tough ask, but their featherweight pairing is almost guaranteed to show plenty of skills as they try to get one over on the other. This clash of styles, coupled with their low stoppage rates, makes the notion of the bout hitting the midpoint of the second round much more palatable. Evloev’s eight UFC wins are all on the scorecards, while two of Allen’s 11 concluded before that time—with one due to an unfortunate and unexpected injury. Couple these two overs with the prelim line below, and one will get a decent return.

On paper, expecting a flyweight finish might be a tough sell, as historically, the division sees a lower stoppage rate than most other men’s classes. Compare that to heavyweight, for example, where a little under half of all bouts end by knockout in that category. This takes a turn when investigating the two men in the curtain jerker, as Gordon fights Flick in a possible pink-slip pairing. “Malcolm X” comes into this bout having won 79% of his fights inside the distance, and all of those went down in Rounds 1 or 2. Not to be outdone, Flick’s 88% finish rate—all by submission—gives him something to crow about. On the other side of the equation, 13 of their 14 combined defeats took place by stoppage, with just two surpassing the suggested under here. One way or another, Gordon or Flick will get the job done, probably early. Put them together, and one can find nearly even odds on a relatively risk-averse accumulator.