Prime Picks: UFC 296 ‘Edwards vs. Covington’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday pulls out all the stops for its year-end card at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with two tilts fights that are interesting for different reasons, as well as plenty of action matchups for everyone’s enjoyment. A pair of fight-week scratches took a good chunk out of the lineup and damaged this edition of Prime Picks, but we soldier on. With a baker’s dozen of scraps still in tow, the UFC 296 edition of this betting series expects one champ will defend, gives it up for the old guard and waits for violence to ensue in the co-main attraction.

STRAIGHT-UP CASH

Leon Edwards (-155)

Colby Covington will never fit the mold of a “fan favorite” for many reasons, ranging from his in-cage fight style to his out-of-combat persona. Should he lose to Leon Edwards in the main event, he will join a small but illustrious group of high-level bridesmaids that went at least 0-3 in undisputed championship bouts—an interim title later stripped notwithstanding. He would be in the company with names like Joseph Benavidez, Kenny Florian, Alexander Gustafsson and Pedro Rizzo. At 35, this might be it for his aspirations as a champ. He will bring his pressure-first, in-your-face game plan against a savvy, well-rounded martial artist in Edwards, and it will be an uphill battle if he cannot find success early.

Covington is not a one-horse wagon. However, if his two main paths to victory—rapid-fire punches with light power or a smother-heavy wrestling attack—fall short, he is up a creek without a paddle. This was the case when he met Kamaru Usman twice: “Chaos” fared well, struggled with Usman’s power and could not buy a takedown. While Edwards’ takedown defense mathematically may not be as airtight as Usman’s, seeing “Rocky” shut down 18 of Usman’s 27 attempts in their two most recent matches inspires serious confidence in the Brit’s defensive wrestling. Notably, Edwards succumbed to far less control time in the rematch, finding a way back to his feet from a seemingly otherworldly wrestler who had previously stonewalled Covington.

The American’s approach at the press conference on Thursday might be objectively abhorred and downright depraved, but it could work in throwing Edwards off his game. Make a cerebral competitor angry, and the smart decisions start falling away as that normally composed fighter starts overswinging and headhunting. In a technical boxing match, Edwards should have the upper hand, but Covington does display a level of volume and attrition that can get the best of most adversaries. Approaching this pairing like how he fought Belal Muhammad until the eye poke would work wonders for “Rocky,” as he bullied the bully in Round 1 before things went awry. Should Covington get in his groove of pushing the pace, backing his opponent to the wall and forcing him to defend takedowns, Edwards’ championship status could be in jeopardy—if Covington can do that for five rounds without making a mistake. Because the MMA Masters fighter will have to fight perfectly for the full 25 minutes and the same does not have to be said for Edwards, betting the champ to defend at these odds is a good call.

STRAIGHT-UP PASS

Paddy Pimblett (-325)

The inimitable Tony Ferguson comes into this main card collision with his back firmly against the wall, which is reflected on his betting line. The comeback for “El Cucuy” is currently +260, which is an underdog number the likes of which he has only experienced twice, with both coming on this losing streak. Against Michael Chandler, that could be justified, and confidence had abandoned Ferguson-favored bettors when he fought Bobby Green. It is fair, given that Ferguson has lost six straight fights, with four finishes, including a few gruesome ones. Still, his level of competition will drop significantly from six Top 15-caliber fighters to Pimblett. “The Baddy” could win this fight and vanquish the unique 39-year-old, but the juice is not worth the squeeze at this price.

Ferguson did not quite land in the “Dog Will Hunt” category because he faded in each of his last six appearances. In many, Ferguson looked great, winning several rounds or at least holding his own. The Chandler front kick heard ’round the world may be a one-of-a-kind result, but the once-mighty energy reserves of Ferguson have plummeted, so much so that he all but gives up. It might come with the territory of aging plus fight mileage. Still, the inventive approaches and unexpected attacks from Ferguson started dissipating, and his lightning-quick ability to seize on an opening was no longer something to behold. Pimblett makes plenty of mistakes, and it is still quite unclear just how high the Liverpudlian’s ceiling goes. Matchmakers were keen to put their rising talent against a struggling former name and build Pimblett’s resume in this fashion to catapult him over the Jared Gordons of the world, but this is still “El Cucuy.” Based on how he fights and considering his new partnership with fitness madman David Goggins, trying to predict how he will perform is about as tough as it gets. Skipping this fight would likely be in the best interest of most bettors who are not devoted fans of the Scouser.

DOG WILL HUNT

Stephen Thompson (+445)

At this point, Shavkat Rakhmonov must be considered the real deal. Demolishing Neil Magny and Geoff Neal in the fashion he defeated them is nothing short of astounding, and going against a soon-to-be 41-year-old karateka puts him with the widest betting line on UFC 296. It should be noted that this section was initially going to discuss Vicente Luque’s chances of success against the much-maligned Ian Garry. When that fell through, it would have pointed out the unheralded two-pronged attack of Muslim Salikhov against Randy Brown. Thankfully, this event has no shortage of live underdogs, and Thompson fits that bill well.

There is imminent risk in betting against Rakhmonov. After all, his wrestling is exceptional, and his submission grappling might be superior. No one has ever submitted Thompson, and it speaks volumes that there have only been four official attempts against him after over a decade spent in the Octagon. If Rakhmonov takes the path of least resistance and ragdolls “Wonderboy” throughout a few deflating rounds, his -650 line would seem completely justified. There is a bit of additional hubris that comes with an undefeated record, especially one that has been gathered in part by taking everything strikers dish out at him and giving it back in spades. If Rakhmonov decides to send a message and beat Thompson at his own game—Kevin Holland tried a year ago, and he came out with a broken hand and a smashed face—then this fight is up for grabs. It is a very large “if,” but a Rakhmonov who abandons his fight IQ and throws down gives Thompson the chance to pull off the unexpected upset, provided he has not slipped a gear.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION:

Edwards-Covington Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-425)

Alexandre Pantoja-Brandon Royval Lasts Under 4.5 Rounds (-425)

Irene Aldana-Karol Rosa Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-600)

Total Odds: -128

In this three-piece with sparkling water, we address the length of three bouts while erring on the extremely safe side. Whether over because a tilt is expected to take a while or under because it should end in a hurry, each selection is taken a step or two further to cover for unexpected outcomes. The first comes in a main event destined for championship rounds. Remember, 2015 is the last time either Edwards or Covington saw a bout end any earlier than the third frame, barring the no contest—a betting push against Muhammad. This spans 24 combined fights that reached Round 3. Both men celebrate plenty of five-round experience, and if they procure a finish, it tends to be in the waning minutes of a fight. If their clash of styles plays out like it is expected to on paper, it has the makings of a pairing that goes deep into the later rounds, if not to the final bell. With stellar cardio on both sides and exceptional durability—the one knockout loss between them was when Usman smashed Covington’s jaw—this headliner reaching its midpoint should be a virtual no-brainer.

The second leg of this parlay calls for a finish for the flyweights anytime sooner than 2:30 of Round 5, which is a time both have reached once in their respective tenures. Pantoja and Royval first came to blows in 2021, and what ensued was 6:46 of wild, frenetic action and intensity until the Brazilian cinched a submission. Based on their fighting styles and development in the last two-plus years, nothing shows this rematch being anything different. Pantoja is ruthlessly aggressive, while Royval is reckless to the point that he puts himself in danger to come out on top. It does not matter who gets the job done as long as someone is put away before the midpoint of the final round, which provides safe odds as many do not think it would even get to the third stanza. To quote Sherdog Senior Editor Ben Duffy from the UFC 296 preview show, “There’s no way this fight sucks.”

Spanning her 12-fight UFC tenure, Aldana has seen two bouts end before the third frame, as she punched out Ketlen Vieira and Yana Santos. Otherwise, it has been all overs for the Mexican boxer. Rosa? Eight straight decisions. If anyone blows up this accumulator, it will likely be because Aldana cracks Rosa with a sharp combination and puts her away in the first round. It would mark the first time Rosa has been knocked out. She has taken some heavy shots since joining the roster in 2019 and only hit the canvas once, courtesy of an early Lina Lansberg right hand. If this turns into any of Rosa’s recent clinch-heavy encounters, it will take a while before it gets anywhere. That would check the box for the first leg of this parlay, which brings solid return odds despite not taking much risk—other than expecting three outcomes based on similar past performances.