The Ultimate Fighting Championship may not be giving New Yorkers the exact fight they wanted, but fans will be getting their money’s worth from sheer action and violence potential on Saturday at Madison Square Garden. The UFC 295 main card could very well go five-for-five with finishes, and a bonus parlay calling that can be found around +241. Betting lines are exceptionally close, with only one ultra-late notice pairing seeing odds wider than -250. Join this edition of Prime Picks, where we double-dip on one of the most obvious plays this side of Jailton Almeida-Derrick Lewis ending via finish.
STRAIGHT-UP CASH
Jiri Prochazka-Alex Pereira Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-175)Two hulking 205-pounders with finish rates of 97 and 75%—the latter all via knockout—will punch, kick, knee and elbow their way into a vacant light heavyweight throne. Prochazka has impressed many as he sliced and diced his way through Rizin Fighting Federation ahead of his capturing the UFC title, to the degree that he has procured 11 straight stoppages, or one more than his Pereira’s total MMA career. In one corner stands a wild and crazy striker who can chain spinning and flying strikes together but is quite hittable. In the other, a disciplined, frighteningly powerful kickboxer with multi-divisional success in two sports now. Rather than picking the victor, snagging the line that this fight will not last long may be the prime investment.
For this play to hit, the fight must end before 2:30 of the third round, which has occurred in most of both fighters’ careers. During the Czech’s 13-fight winning streak, he has secured victories in that time frame on 10 occasions. While some of those triumphs have come against arguably lesser opposition, it cannot be ignored that Prochazka was doing that while weighing around 205-210 pounds against full-fledged heavyweights like Bruno Cappelozza and Fabio Maldonado. A true opportunist who sometimes goes a little too hard for a finish, it is not an accident that, across 33 pro fights, “BJP” has gone the distance twice—in a draw and a win against heavyweights. “Poatan” may measure up at 230-plus pounds, but Prochazka has shown he has the power and the diversity of attack to put anyone in the world away.
Pereira celebrates one-punch power, doing the kind of damage that scrambles circuits and makes fighters reevaluate their lives to that point. Prochazka also does, but if Pereira can cold-cock top-tier kickboxers with one left hook while wearing 10-ounce gloves, the four-ounce version offers less padding and more firepower. Even if only about half (21) of his 40 wins in the kickboxing ring came by knockout, the vicious stopping ability was on full display when lamping the likes of Yousri Belgaroui, Dustin Jacoby and a little-known name of Israel Adesanya. The Brazilian can take solace knowing that Prochazka gets hit about as often as he connects and that he leans on his recoverability and maneuverability when getting hurt. Pereira’s chin is not indestructible, either, so this car crash of a light heavyweight championship affair should end thrillingly and quickly.
STRAIGHT-UP PASS
Jared Gordon (-195)Coming off a robbery decision defeat in December and a no-contest in April, “Flash” Gordon speeds into this affair against an Olympic silver medalist as a nearly two-to-one favorite. Capable of pushing a low-power, high-volume pace for three hard rounds, it might be the durability that has gotten Gordon this far despite three knockout defeats in the Octagon thus far. An accurate enough hitter and the type of fighter who puts forth decent pressure, he will be a lot for Mark O. Madsen to handle. If Gordon’s game has a weak link, his takedown defense leaves openings for the Greco-Roman wrestler to exploit. Madsen will have to close the distance to get his hands on Gordon, who possesses decent footwork and a fairly active get-up game with solid scrambles. If Madsen is at his suffocating best, this will be rough sledding for the betting favorite.
At 39, Madsen is unquestionably in the twilight of his career, even if he has only tasted defeat once in MMA. Grant Dawson managed to turn the tables on the Danish fighter and put him on his back repeatedly, but it cannot be forgotten that he did so to Gordon, as well, including the third-round submission. “KGD” weakness aside, when healthy and active, the wrestling standout can nullify his opponent effectively. The ground-and-pound leaves something to be desired when getting on top, and Madsen’s activity rate is sometimes less than stellar. It will be up to Madsen not to burn out his gas tank while spamming takedowns. Even if Gordon can capitalize on his fatiguing opponent, he might have to hope Madsen does not bank two rounds so he has to force a late stoppage—a feat he has only achieved once in his career. Gordon has a way to win this fight, but there are better options at these odds.
DOG WILL HUNT
Matt Frevola (+185)Most of the lines throughout the lineup are accurate, from the lopsided (-650) favored status for Mateusz Rebecki against late replacement Roosevelt Roberts to the near pick’em of Nazim Sadykhov-Viecheslav Borshchev. It appears to deviate from the main card scrap between Frevola and Benoit St. Denis, which promises mayhem for as long as it lasts. Both lightweights come in with impressive finish streaks, and their intensities should lead to fireworks. Frevola would like nothing more than to stand in the pocket and trade, while St. Denis would be better suited trying to take the fight to the mat and ply his submission trade. If “The Steamrolla” can land cleanly on St. Denis or force a firefight, it is anybody’s fight.
With three first-round knockouts to his credit in his last three outings, Frevola has landed six knockdowns, most importantly flooring Drew Dober and beating him at his own game. It is hard to speculate on the liability of the New Yorker’s takedown defense, as Arman Tsarukyan hit double-digit takedowns, but no one has put him on his back since then. St. Denis can time level changes when Frevola inevitably overswings, and his transitions on the mat are stifling and always dangerous. Frevola can get in St. Denis’ head and lure him into a brawl, especially if the Frenchman has success on the feet. After all, “God of War” fell in love with his hands a bit against Gabriel Miranda a little more than a year ago. Should this fight primarily take place on the feet, Frevola has as much chance as anyone to become the first fighter to stop the surging 27-year-old from France.
AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION:
Prochazka-Pereira Ends Inside Distance (-550)Sergei Pavlovich-Tom Aspinall Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-550)
Frevola-Benoit St. Denis Ends Inside Distance (-400)
TOTAL ODDS: -134
Rarely do we take one or two of our outright selections and include them in a parlay. Why? So we can instead illustrate a larger spread of betting options rather than repeat the same couple of fights. That trend will be bucked for this particular parlay. However, we will also provide a secondary accumulator if one does not wish to double down on a similar line to what was discussed earlier. In keeping with what was discussed on the “Straight-Up Cash” play from above, this anchor leg of the three-piece expands that threshold of a stoppage, allowing for the miraculous fifth-round, out-of-nowhere choke like Prochazka’s last outing. Otherwise, the song remains the same: absolute carnage until someone ends up staring at the lights when it is all over.
Perhaps even more obvious than the expectation of Prochazka-Pereira not hearing the final bell is the inclination that Pavlovich and Aspinall will engage in a mighty battle that will almost certainly end in a hurry. In 16 pro fights, the Brit has never seen a third round, with his longest match clocking in a second under nine minutes. Pavlovich has rendered six straight first-round knockouts, and a mere three decisions—all wins—are on his ledger. While on paper, the Russian may have the edge in cardio based on past performance. The questions loom about Aspinall’s gas tank should his first and second plans not succeed. Those questions will not likely be answered, as this heavyweight battle should conclude well before that third frame is reached.
If Pavlovich-Aspinall had a reasonable line of the fight ending inside the distance, that would have been selected to keep with a theme, but at -1400, it is barely a pot sweetener. What is more realistic is the first of three on this accumulator spectacular, where we take the winner out of the equation of Frevola-St. Denis and instead focus on just how action-packed it is set up to be. The two 155ers currently seem to know only one speed: ludicrous. Win or lose, these two regularly go plaid, as even Frevola’s defeats are generally quite sensational. If a bettor wants an alternative to going for a similar time-based line on the main event, toss that from the boat and slot in Tabatha Ricci-Lupita Godinez Goes Over 2.5 Rounds. That transforms the parlay to -118, a decent three-piece with sparkling water.