Prime Picks: UFC 290 ‘Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship crams a slew of entertaining and noteworthy matchups onto its International Fight Week event, in hopes of delivering for the masses that showed up in Las Vegas to take in the experience. While the fights generally seem scintillating, the betting lines are extremely skewed in the lion’s share of the pairings. Only three of 14 feature a favorite at -200 odds or less, and a record may be broken at night’s end in terms of minus odds. Join us as we navigate the slalom that is the lopsided UFC 290 event, where we try to play it safe in the headliner, pitch an underdog that might not be getting enough shine and present an all-Australian accumulator.

Straight Up Cash

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez Starts Round 4 (-175)
Sometimes playing it safe is smarter than a brash decision, and with this championship tussle featuring lines this far apart, there are few reasonable ways to approach it. Even champ Volkanovski featuring the double outcome of a knockout or a decision closes in around -350, which would be best only if lumped into a parlay – something like his countryman, Robert Whittaker. See below. This event, with so many prohibitive favorites that include this main attraction, forces some digging in order to pick a good line. It might go against the nature of this series as a whole to suggest that this event might be one to dabble in but not go full throttle, due to the number of potential trap fights and valueless options at our disposal. It might not be the sexiest selection in the history of Prime Picks, but when it comes to “Straight Up Cash,” we look to something that should hit barring a shocking and unexpected outcome. This fight reaching the championship rounds is where we have to settle here.

The high-flying Rodriguez has paths to victory, but they largely rely on Volkanovski making mistakes he generally does not make. The more powerful man with one-shot power is undoubtedly the rangier man from Mexico, but to land one of his finishers he will have to set it up properly. Simply tossing a spinning wheel kick from kickboxing range would allow, for example, the Aussie to crash forward, bully Rodriguez to the fence and rend him to the mat from behind. Rodriguez did have some decent moments against Max Holloway, but the Hawaiian activated wresting mode and took him out of the rest of the fight. Volkanovski can do this and put himself at even less risk than the less schooled grappler, and if he decides to punish Rodriguez with leg kicks, that is also an opportunity. The latter would lead to paying off in the later rounds, with an accumulation of damage that would allow this line to cash.

Some lines may not offer the individual round-by-round bets, and if that is the case, the over of 2.5 rounds is an alternative that loses some value. It is, however, a better option than an over of 3.5 rounds, because those two minutes and 30 seconds of the fourth frame makes all the difference. Chan Sung Jung held on valiantly until Round 4 chimed in, and Volkanovski was able to seal the deal courtesy of a merciful stoppage from referee Herb Dean while “The Korean Zombie” was doing his best – or worst – zombie impression. That checked in as the lone stoppage since the Aussie had won the title. Even though the majority of Rodriguez’ finishes have come early, as seen from the damage Volkanovski can absorb and keep on trucking, “El Pantera” might need to come in with a baseball bat in order to have a fighting chance of putting Volkanovski down. “The Great” will not jump into a guillotine choke, and he does not stand on his tiptoes, which leads to the expectation that this potential thriller could go down to the wire. As long as it hits the fourth round, the result does not matter, as it allows for a late finish or a decision.

Straight Up Pass

Jimmy Crute (-125)
With the lines largely so skewed, with a three betting favorites reaching -1000 or beyond and seven seeing one competitor at least -300, there are not a reasonable number of options to pass on here. In fact, out of all five main card matches, no favorite is any lower than -200. Therefore, we have to drop down to the ESPN prelim opener to find a decent approach here. The light heavyweight clash we focus on is an immediate rematch between Crute and Alonzo Menifield, one in which Menifield won the first two rounds, ran out of steam and found himself tossed around by Crute in the third frame, while flagrantly grabbing the fence to lose a point and force the draw. If Crute has to rely on taking a beating before Menifield gasses again, this should not be a reasonable path to victory. This will likely close as the closest betting option on the whole billing, and there are some better choices than the mild favorite.

Menifield finds himself at plus money, possibly because of the final impression fans saw at the end of their February encounter. What some may forget is that Menifield stunned Crute in the opening stanza and then nearly procured the finish at the beginning of the second. Crute survived in part to his safety valve of wrestling, where he was able to hit takedowns or at least stall out long enough with attempts to get his wits back about him. “Atomic Alonzo” did not fight unwisely, throwing everything at Crute and blowing his remaining energy reserves hunting for a finish. Instead, the grappling taxed him, and Crute grinded his way to a draw thanks to the point deduction. Menifield hurt Crute repeatedly, and the same could not be said the other way around. “The Brute” could brute force his way through grappling exchanges to ride out a decision, but the power of the Texan makes him a consistent and fearsome threat.

Dog Will Hunt

Alexandre Pantoja (+170)
Back in 2018, Pantoja met current champion Brandon Moreno in the Octagon, and he laid waste to the youngster and bloodied him up but could not finish the fight. This actually served as their second encounter, as they first faced one another on “The Ultimate Fighter,” where the Brazilian throttled an even more youthful Moreno in the second round to kick him out of that tourney. Over five years have passed since “The Cannibal” chewed up and spat out Moreno, and Moreno is a vastly improved fighter since that time. Of the two, “The Assassin Baby” left the UFC, came back with a vengeance and embarked on not one but two title reigns. In the meantime, Pantoja sat on the outside looking in, violently knocking off contenders but falling short to ex-champ Deiveson Figueiredo and the efficient Askar Askarov. It will actually benefit Pantoja that his opponent has focused on the same man for the good part of two years, because Pantoja has squared off against a rogue’s gallery of opposition ranging from style to style. The offensive tools, plus the mental edge of having beaten the same fighter twice already, make Pantoja an extremely live underdog.

It is no question that Moreno is not the man he was shortly after TUF. When Moreno went 3-2 and saw his unexpected exit from the promotion in the midst of what some called “The Great Flyweight Purge,” seeing him come back a year later after claiming the Legacy Fighting Alliance strap was also as surprise. When fighting to a headscratcher of a draw with Askarov, he had already showed his game had improved, with one judge even giving Moreno all three rounds. While his wrestling was always a useful tool, his boxing has seen marked development, to the point that he kept up with Figueiredo time and time again. Moreno will have to survive the early surges from his opponent, and not allow Pantoja to start chaining submissions together should they hit the mat. Pantoja will be dangerous from the opening bell to the bitter end, which makes him a dog that is in the hunt. If one seeks an even wider opportunity to take advantage of a potentially uneven line, Denise Gomes at +290 could present problems to Yasmine Jauregui due to her reckless aggression and sheer power.

An Accumulation Contemplation:

Alexander Volkanovski (-375)
Robert Whittaker (-400)
Jack Della Maddalena Wins Inside Distance (-450)
Total Odds: -107

The Australian invasion of Las Vegas is the theme to this three-leg accumulator. While there are actually six different competitors repping the Oceanic region, confidence in some – Shannon Ross, the aforementioned Crute – is less than others. If one wished to string together moneylines of the six players from that area, that parlay would net you lofty +2142 odds and a great deal of sweating right out of the gate. Instead, we narrow our focus to three who bettors and analysts alike expect have the clearest paths to victory. This provides practically even odds, when factoring in a stoppage for the massively favored Maddalena.

Much has been said earlier about Volkanovski’s chances, which stem not only from his incredible durability but his exceptional in-cage intelligence. Volkanovski is not the type to fall into the traps that will be set for him, and he is too clever to play another fighter’s game. Crowding the flashy kicker, and putting him on his back when the need arises, will be how Volkanovski as the heavy favorite can get things done. The method is not as important as him prevailing at the end. The same can be said for Whittaker, who faces a hard-charging machine in Dricus Du Plessis.

The former champ is still in prime physical condition at the age of 32 with no signs of slowing down, and his cerebral and effective approach can defuse even the nastiest of threats. “Bobby Knuckles” never allowed Jared Cannonier to tee off on him, or Marvin Vettori to get into his boxing groove. Taking foes out of their element is where Whittaker excels, and as long as he does not get caught by the hellacious swings of the South African, this has 30-27 or at worst 29-28 written all over it. While Whittaker may take the fire out of Du Plessis, Maddalena will bring his own heat as he fights late-notice Josiah Harrell. Harrell has already had to pull victory from the jaws of defeat in his pro career, so this does not bode well for a fighter who relishes in taking punishment in order to come back. Maddalena hits exponentially harder – although it may be timing where he truly excels – and Harrell is going to be surprised when he is not able to outlast the punishment, pop back up and shoot a blast double that takes Maddalena through the Octagon door. Together at just about even odds, these three Australian-based fighters can get their hands raised and cash this triple-legged ticket.