The Ultimate Fighting Championship will pushes its pay-per-view schedule to the limit on Saturday in Miami, with its third $80 show in the span of five weeks. With an immediate rematch again topping the card and a few bouts that lost recent sizzle when the UFC announced odd title arrangements at 135 and 170 pounds, this offering asks a lot of its fanbase. The lines range from intriguing to prohibitive, as only three favorites are within -150 or closer. The UFC 287 edition of Prime Picks pinpoints one of the best value options on the main card, says “not so fast, my friend” to the favored headliner, goes back to the well with a live underdog and presents a no-frills parlay.
STRAIGHT UP CASH
Rob Font-Adrian Yanez Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-115)
For many watching this card, the “People’s Main Event” may not be the last two fights but instead the potential barnburner between Font and Yanez. Both men rarely get into unexciting scraps—if a prop bet existed for this match to earn a post-fight bonus check, we would suggest it—and they are not afraid to shy away from a striking exchange. Volume is key for these two bantamweights, as evidenced by them both residing in the Top 5 for strikes landed per minute in their division. This is a solid jump up in competition to go from Tony Kelley to Font, and Yanez might rise to the occasion. What does not seem as likely, however, is that the Texan will put away Font—or vice versa.
Font displays a nearly otherworldly recoverability, as he can get tagged cleanly and put down by superior strikers, only to bounce back up and be good to go. There will come a time where the Massachusetts native may not be able to rely on this kind of durability, but it does not appear the bottom is falling out for the 35-year-old. In his last appearance, an unsuccessful outing against Marlon Vera in which “Chito” floored him three times, Font showcased his incredible toughness while shattering the bantamweight record for significant strike connections in a single fight. Both men are not only extremely active but also fairly hittable, sometimes falling into the rhythm of taking one to land two. If Vera and Aldo were unable to put Font away, it does not seem like Yanez will be the first one to completely break his chin.
Since he stamped himself as an elite 135-pounder, Font has tended to take his time, using his jab to its fullest and keeping charging foes at bay for as long as possible. He can get stuck in first gear at times, which allows heavier hitters to shrug off a long jab to close the distance and crack him. Yanez’s offense may be slowed if his nose gets busted up and he struggles to breathe from the inevitable quick strikes aimed at him. Knockouts have dried up at the higher echelon of the weight class for Font, and Yanez will soon find that not everyone will go away as quickly as a Randy Costa-type. It should be a fan-friendly firefight where both men land early and often, but it is one that will likely reach the final round and beyond given the durability and wherewithal these men possess. If one wishes to push this into plus-money territory, the line of them going the distance at +100 is possible, but it runs the risk of missing a possible late attritional stoppage after one man eats over 100 head shots.
STRAIGHT UP PASS
Israel Adesanya (-135)
One unexpected, dramatic fight result could be a moment written off as a “fluke” or something brought about by luck rather than finesse. Two such results, however, starts to form a pattern. On two occasions in the fight careers of Adesanya and Alex Pereira, the former has shown great success in their encounters, only to get caught late. The first time they met, back in 2016, Adesanya should have earned the decision, but that is another conversation for another day. Whether in kickboxing or MMA, Pereira proved he may have Adesanya’s number, plain and simple, in a Dennis Hallman-Matt Hughes type of fashion. Despite Pereira stopping Adesanya with strikes at UFC 281—it marked the first time that had ever happened in the career of “The Last Stylebender”—the Brazilian still comes into this headliner as an underdog. At the very least, the two fighters should be even money given the end result, regardless of feelings on the stoppage.
In their third bout, Adesanya was up three rounds to one on every scorecard, and it is anyone’s guess how that round would have continued to play out had referee Marc Goddard not intervened to award the standing TKO. Adesanya at times employed a more grappling-centric approach, and little of his stylish footwork or movement threw “Poatan” off his game. Pereira stayed composed, rarely seeming to even register oncoming fire, as he walked Adesanya down for stretches of the fight. If the Nigerian-born Kiwi is able to ground Pereira for more than a few seconds at a time while not tiring himself entering into these exchanges, he might find success. Considering that Pereira, even after over 21 minutes of combat, was able to shift to the next gear and force a finish, cardio is not a liability. While Adesanya could cruise to a decision and take fewer risks than the last bout, given what Leon Edwards accomplished recently, the adjustments and improvements Pereira will also make should have this fight as a coinflip instead of what it is now.
DOG WILL HUNT
Gerald Meerschaert (+165)
Stop me if you have heard this one: Meerschaert is matched against a young, hungry adversary with heavy hands and comes in as a sizeable underdog. Even with a UFC record of 10-7, time and time again, Meerschaert has pulled off unexpected upsets against vaunted foes. Not only has he beaten them, but he has finished them. “GM3” getting a decision win seems quite unlikely, and the true value can be found at him getting the finish over Joseph Pyfer at +235. This could very well be a two-outcome match, as Pyfer could also land the seminal knockout blow. Given the lack of damage Meerschaert has suffered in the last few years before getting the inevitable stoppage, he is arguably the most primed to get the upset on the whole lineup.
The step up in competition for Pyfer from Alen Amedovski—a man who went 0-4 on the roster before his inevitable release—to Meerschaert is a veritable chasm, as on any given night, “GM3” could tap out most of the men in the Top 15. Pyfer has just once before competed beyond the third round, when he won a decision back in 2018. His wins have generally been split between the first two frames, although his only two defeats also came inside the distance. Meerschaert relishes the opportunity to drag a spent opponent into the third round and make him surrender while gasping for air. Unless Pyfer embraces his Dana White-tagged slogan of “Be Joe Pyfer” and walks Meerschaert down to bust him in the chops early, this has all the makings of a fight where Meerschaert’s veteran savvy and slick technique allows him to outlast and put a damper on Pyfer’s hype train.
AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION
Gilbert Burns (-450)
Kevin Holland (-250)
Jaqueline Amorim (-250)
Total Odds: +140
Taking to Miami for the first time in almost 20 years, the UFC might be doing a disservice to local fan-favorite Jorge Masvidal in this co-main attraction. While he might be getting the favorable slot in the pay-per-view under the title tilt, this style matchup is among the worst he could possibly receive at either lightweight or welterweight this side of Beneil Dariush or Islam Makhachev. To open this parlay that will pay off at plus odds should all three aforenamed competitors get their hands raised, Burns as one of the most heavily favored on the card deserves a slot here. It is difficult to drill down and pick whether Burns will pull off a stoppage (-110) or win on the scorecards (+200), as Masvidal is notoriously tough to finish and has survived three rounds of Demian Maia threatening him in the past. Instead, let him serve as the anchor of this bouquet of fight picks, as his grappling is leagues above Masvidal’s and his power also provides a threat with which “Gamebred” may struggle.
Just two years ago, the pick for this second accumulator leg might have been ill-advised. Granted, Holland was competing at 185 pounds while Santiago Ponzinibbio was showing he was not a shot fighter at welterweight. With 35 pro fights under his belt, the man known as “Argentine Dagger” does not have a great deal of tread left on his tires. When a fighter stands in front of him and bangs it out, a la Miguel Baeza or Alex Morono, there is still something left for Ponzinibbio to display. However, against Holland, an elusive and crafty kickboxer who kept up with the great Stephen Thompson for a few thrilling rounds, the shorter Ponzinibbio might end up hitting more air than man. Holland’s eight-inch reach advantage will feel like a mile when he properly utilizes it with reaching jabs and front kicks. Few tend to crowd Holland without the threat of the takedown, and it could be “Trailblazer” who decides to take things down just to show off his skills a bit. While he might not end up getting a stoppage and could settle for styling on his Argentinian opponent for 15 minutes, Holland is a solid play in this three-piece.
A bout that could easily serve as a Legacy Fighting Alliance main event will kick off this parlay, when ex-LFA strawweight queen Amorim takes on a former LFA title challenger in Sam Hughes. The 27-year-old from Brazil is surging into her promotional debut with all the momentum in the world and a rock-solid 100% finish rate on her ledger. To add to that, no opponent has survived to hear the bell to end Round 1. There will almost certainly come a time when Amorim is unable to simply put a foe away in a hurry, and it could very well be the durable Hughes. Across her six UFC appearances thus far, “Sampage” has won the two fights where she ended with a takedown advantage, while the four women to put her on her back all beat her. The savvy grappler will almost certainly look to drag the fight to the canvas, and unless she hits a wall and is outlasted by the Fortis MMA trainee, Amorim should have her way with her opponent on the ground to check this box in the parlay.