Prime Picks: UFC 286 ‘Edwards vs. Usman 3’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship will ask a great deal of its fans with a second pay-per-view in March, and the promotion throws out an extremely top-heavy offering for that second $80 payment on Saturday at the O2 Arena in London. While a top pound-for-pound matchup serves as the main attraction, the event drops off hard and fast with an overloaded lineup surprisingly lacking in worthy betting options. Join the UFC 286 edition of Prime Picks as we urge some caution on a popular marquee matchup, try to get out ahead in an absolute banger of a co-headliner and examine some value in a main card underdog.

STRAIGHT UP CASH

Justin Gaethje-Rafael Fiziev Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-150)

It would be quite unexpected if the co-main event between Gaethje and Fiziev went the distance, given the absolute striker’s delight that will be on display for as long as the two can stay on their feet. While Gaethje is notorious for being one of the more feared strikers the lightweight division has seen the last few years, Fiziev is one of the main instructors at Tiger Muay Thai—a school those already decent at their craft go to level up. Fiziev is at the top of the ladder. It might be a case of a brawler versus a tactician, and as long as someone gets taken out before 12:30 elapses, this line should cash.

The two just happen to celebrate 27 knockouts in their combined 35 wins, and they have each gone to exactly three decisions apiece and prevailed in all of them. Gaethje is undoubtedly the most consistently exciting fighter to grace the roster, and that has been to his detriment. It was only a matter of time until his “take one to land one” style would catch up with him, and tougher opponents have outlasted him and taken him out. While some competitors have been dazzled by Fiziev’s flying, spinning or otherwise unorthodox approaches, Gaethje will walk him down and almost certainly absorb some damage to dish it out back. Gaethje’s sheer aggression might not let Fiziev get settled, or it could spark something in the man repping Azerbaijan, prompting him to unleash a fire and a fury.

There is almost no way this is an unexciting match, as Gaethje has only once attempted a takedown in the UFC, officially doing so against Eddie Alvarez. Fiziev on the other hand is 2-for-5, and other than a bit of control time on Marc Diakiese, the grappling has practically not mattered for him, either. There exists every possibility that Gaethje blitzes Fiziev when the latter is trying to get situated, along with the potential for “The Highlight” to land a few early low kicks to hamper his opponent’s movement and change the nature of the match. Additionally, Fiziev could catch Gaethje coming in or hurt him in an exchange and put him down for the count with one of his ferociously powerful strikes. There is a solid chance bonus money is on the line here, as well, with the two men earning an unprecedented 15 post-fight checks in 17 fights in the UFC thus far. Gaethje has no interest in changing his style, and Fiziev could be the foil to scramble his circuits or be another man face down before fight’s end. Either way, the under of 2.5 is practically straight up cash here.

STRAIGHT UP PASS

Leon Edwards (+195)

Defying the odds and the expectations, Edwards did it last year. Upsetting pound-for-pound top talent Kamaru Usman by knockout of all ways, “Rocky” told a perfect “Rocky”-style story by coming back to render Usman totally unconscious with a head kick. Edwards pulled it off with 56 seconds left in a match he was losing and placed himself in the annals of history. While his achievement was remarkable, he still comes in as an underdog as the sitting champion in their rubber match. The champion has seen his line shrink since opening at nearly +300, and this has shifted Edwards from a potential upset play into a line to cross off the list and look for another.

The win for Edwards was no fluke; it was not an accident or anything more than the perfect strike at the most necessary time. He started off well, officially landing the first takedown on Usman by grounding “The Nigerian Nightmare” to catch him completely off-guard. From there, Usman turned things around, with either the takedown or the threat of the takedown stifling Edwards for three more rounds. While Usman could not drag Edwards to the mat, he was at least up on the scorecards enough to where he would have still handily won, even if he had given up the final frame. The path to victory for Usman is to keep the original gameplan, with the added caveat of keeping his hands up in the later rounds. Meanwhile, Edwards cannot bank on pulling off another shocker of a knockout, and he will have to sprawl and brawl like the best of them to not let Usman dump him to the canvas and keep him there. A play on Usman prevailing on the scorecards (+110) or the fight reaching the final bell (-165) are more reasonable than Edwards getting the upset based on how their second encounter played out before the mighty head kick.

DOG WILL HUNT

Jennifer Maia (+155)

On a card built like this to seemingly favor European-based fighters, one plus-money competitor who could break through that matchmaking is surprisingly a woman who has a .500 record in the UFC. Maia has served as an excellent bellwether of Top 10 talent in the women’s flyweight division, with her physicality and understated boxing keeping her afloat while falling short against top-tier talent. There is no shame that her only losses in nearly a decade have come against Bellator MMA champ Liz Carmouche, former UFC champ Valentina Shevchenko, perennial top contender Katlyn Chookagian and rising talent Manon Fiorot. On the other hand, she has prevailed against solid names in Jessica Eye, Joanne Wood and Maryna Moroz along the way. Staring across the cage from her will be undefeated Casey O’Neill, born in Scotland, and Maia is the perfect kind of trap fight that could put an end to that run.

The Brazilian’s style is hardly complicated and rarely dangerous from a finishing standpoint: She has only procured one stoppage in the Octagon, while never getting put away. When in the driver’s seat, Maia can keep a constant pace for three hard rounds, apply adequate pressure, frustrate in the clinch and get her hands going. She can be bullied, but it has to be by an opponent who is either significantly stronger or far more skilled. “King Casey” may yet be the next generation of the weight class at the age of 25, but this will be the toughest test of her career, with all due respect to Roxanne Modafferi and Antonina Shevchenko. Maia can play the great nullifier by standing right in front of O’Neill and throwing hands, not allowing the Scottish-born Aussie to fully utilize her range and embrace the grind in the clinch. The overlooked Maia is an underdog to watch, and if she wins, it might not be a pretty affair that will almost certainly end in the hands of the judges.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION

Jack Shore (-490)
Sam Patterson (-275)
Muhammad Mokaev (-800)
Total Odds: -118

The United Kingdom will represent all three legs of this Union Jack-based parlay, with Wales and England getting the shine based on seemingly favorable matchmaking. The last leg is for the former nation, with Abertillery’s own Shore moving up to featherweight after his first career defeat. Some fighters respond poorly when suffering their initial loss, but Shore is thrown a bone against the struggling Makwan Amirkhani. The style matchup is far in his favor, as he will have to almost fall into an anaconda choke in order to lose this one. Shore’s wrestling, striking and cardio are all on the side of the Welshman, and he should close out this accumulator with style.

A comical size disparity will play out in the second leg of the parlay, with Patterson measuring around seven inches taller and a whopping 10 inches longer in the arms. With great height comes great responsibility, and Patterson will need to mind his Ps and Qs against a decent wrestler with a heavy overhand. For Yanal Ashmoz to pull off the win, he will need to crowd “The Future” and bully him up against the cage before dragging him to the canvas. Patterson throws up defensive guillotines, and they are far from desperation low-percentage moves; Ashmoz will need to be wary of this when he changes levels. The Israeli known as “Red Fox” would have to hit multiple takedowns on his lanky adversary, trapping him on the ground and making him miserable for three full rounds. Otherwise, Patterson can capitalize. Before it is said and done, Patterson can land the right strike or successfully scramble to land a sub and record the victory.

Flyweight uber-prospect Mokaev will continue his slow and methodical climb up his division’s ladder when he welcomes Jafel Filho to the promotion. On his own, the moneyline of Mokaev is almost a bridge too far, so his -800 will serve more as a multiplier to bring it down to nearly even money than to actually push it to plus territory. Filho, who cut his teeth in Shooto Brazil, feasted over sometimes overmatched opposition as he racked up finishes on the circuit. Unless Mokaev gets caught early with a winging left hook or takes the Brazilian lightly on the mat and falls into a trap, he should be a solid first choice for this three-line option.