Prime Picks: UFC 284 ‘Makhachev vs. Volkanovski’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday makes his return to Western Australia for the best title bout that no one seems to be talking about. With pound-for-pound greatness on the line, two champions battle it out, with one envisioning his membership to the rare champ-champ club. The UFC 284 edition of Prime Picks weighs in on the right play for that top tilt, suggests caution for an action fighter coming off a long layoff, gives props to a live underdog and stitches together what should be a straightforward and profitable parlay.

STRAIGHT UP CASH

Islam Makhachev-Alexander Volkanovski Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-160)

Seemingly out of nowhere, a veritable superfight has materialized in front of our very eyes. The promotion lists these two competitors as the No. 1 and No. 2 pound-for-pound fighters; Sherdog disagrees, with Volkanovski in the top spot and Makhachev gunning for him at No. 4. To have the Dagestan native ranked lower is not a slight on his abilities but rather a serious review on who exactly he has been defeating on the way up. The lightweight champion posts a stellar 11-fight winning streak, but Volkanovski doubles that with 22 straight, and 12 of those have come inside the Octagon. This level of skill on display promises they will take plenty of time to ply their respective trades, with very few weaknesses to exploit. The Australian has shown he cannot simply get “caught” with a submission, but he similarly does not possess one-hitter quitter power to shock Makhachev. This fight has all the makings of one that goes late and perhaps reaches the scorecards.

By practically cleaning out his division with four wins over the consensus best featherweights in the world before his time, Volkanovski has earned this opportunity to seek out a second gold belt. To get there, he has blown through the elite of the elite, and his last seven wins can stack up against the best resumes ever offered in the sport. An incredibly well-rounded athlete with endless cardio and stellar defensive prowess, Volkanovski can counter anything that gets thrown at him. If and when he gets taken down, his get-up game is exceptional, forcing speedy scrambles and staying calm even in the most dangerous of spots. The Aussie has answered practically every question he could be asked, while a few still loom for Makhachev. Namely, what happens when Makhachev gets tagged and how will he fare when he is not entirely in the driver’s seat going into the later rounds? Even if the larger Makhachev manages to toss his counterpart around on the ground, Volkanovski is next to impossible to finish.

Despite the vast improvements the newly minted 155-pound champ has made on the feet, he should still be miles behind Volkanovski in that arena. “Alexander The Great” has no issue reaching taller or longer opponents, with quick in-and-out movement and a never-ending assault of leg kicks. Makhachev did great work his last time out against Charles Oliveira, but he faces a far more polished striker in this match. Getting Volkanovski down and keeping him there will be paramount to Makhachev’s success. Always moving, Volkanovski will be continuously hunting for ways to get up, force sweeps and otherwise threatening, and Makhachev will need to be buttoned up for all five rounds. While Makhachev shows he can keep a heavy pace for a few rounds, it is significantly different to run Thiago Moises ragged before throttling him than struggling to keep someone like Volkanovski on his back. By the time Makhachev may flag and Volkanovski can turn things up and possibly even turn the tables, the over of the midpoint of Round 3 will hit, and the rest is gravy. There is major value in Volkanovski at +315 because of his pace and pressure, but that upset conversation can be saved for another day.

STRAIGHT UP PASS

Jimmy Crute (-185)

On the heels of two stoppage losses in 2021, Crute took the whole of 2022 off to reset and improve his skills. Turning 27 in March, the Aussie still has not even reached his athletic prime yet. After these two serious setbacks, some retooling may have been in order so that he could get back to his finishing ways. In the meantime, Alonzo Menifield (+160) has been knocking people out with impunity. While his clobbering of a con artist like Askar Mozharov is nothing to write home about, destroying Misha Cirkunov—a man who tied Crute up like a pretzel a few years ago—is another matter entirely. Odd scorecards in his match with William Knight broke up what should rightfully be a five-fight winning streak for Menifield, and his momentum plus his ferocious power make him very capable of blowing Crute out of the water.

If there is a knock on Menifield, it is his gas tank. That is to be expected, however, when the man throws nothing but fastballs for the good part of two rounds. If the match remains on the feet, Menifield has more than enough tools to do some damage, but he might surprise the Australian with a takedown threat. Should the two hit the ground, Menifield will need to be careful, because Crute is a slick submission artist who can threaten an arm and lock down two-on-one wrist control in a hurry. Given the momentum the fighters are bringing into their meeting and the damage Crute has suffered in his last bouts, Menifield could throw him off his game with one fearsome left hook. This line should be much closer given the circumstances, so putting money down on Crute, whose line started around -225, is still not worth it.

DOG WILL HUNT

Josh Emmett (+160)

The most valuable underdog of the fight card may be the aforementioned Volkanovski, but two segments on that main event matchup would hardly qualify as scintillating reading. We will just offer one dart about that fight: Volkanovski Wins by Decision at +575. Turning to the co-main event, an interim title fight where the victor likely tackles “Alexander The Great” in his next outing plays out between a deserving challenger and one less so. The underdog Emmett would have likely claimed a title shot far sooner had he been more active, but averaging one fight per year dulls any momentum he could string together. Still, a five-fight winning streak over impressive names rightfully earned him a spot for a higher paycheck. On the other hand, Yair Rodriguez has won just once since 2020, and that was due to Brian Ortega suffering an unfortunate injury early in their five-round meeting. Despite this, Rodriguez comes in at a significant -185, in a matchup where Emmett could easily play spoiler.

This flyweight five-round affair will be a battle of distance. Rodriguez tends to fight either well out of the way to touch with kicks and wind up with spinning blows or tied up in the clinch so he can swing elbows with bad intentions. Emmett, a power boxer, will have to navigate that range to stay at the end of his punches without getting grabbed or pushed away to suffer a death by a thousand kicks. “El Pantera” stays busy by kicking any target he can find; of note, his calf kicks present power that could take the sting out of Emmett’s punches in a hurry. Emmett has the chops to get in and get out, but he occasionally sticks around a little too long and winds up in a brawl. Those types of exchanges should favor him, and if he can gain respect early by landing a big strike, it can take Rodriguez out of a groove that he so enjoys to develop and maintain. Emmett’s wrestling the last few years is more of something on paper than actually deployed, but on the small chance he implements it, he could slow the Mexican fighter down significantly and take away his best weapons. There are reasonable paths to victory for both men, and it is not unsurprising that Rodriguez sits at minus money. This far into plus territory, however, is decent for those picking Emmett outright.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION:

Jack Della Maddalena (-335)
Jamie Mullarkey (-270)
Zubaira Tukhugov (-550)
Total Odds: +110

This is all smart money, in the form of three fairly heavy favorites that should handle their business and move up in the world. The last leg comes in the “featured fight of the night” slot, where Della Maddalena takes a significant step up in competition against the long, rangy Randy Brown. Inside the Octagon, there are still looming questions about what happens when someone survives the Aussie’s initial assault, but none of his three UFC adversaries have reached the second round yet. Brown is tough to put away and not does not go down early, so Maddalena will need to be prepared to slug it out for the better part of 10 minutes at minimum. With stunning power and a terrific work rate, Della Maddalena should at least have the advantage in two rounds, banking them if he does not earn a knockout and staying busy enough so Brown cannot stage a Round 3 comeback.

The second leg is in favor of another Australian striker who has pop on his punches and draws a late-notice undefeated opponent with a less-than-dynamite strength of schedule: Francisco Prado. The newcomer’s first 11 wins came over fighters with a combined 62-48 record, give or take—regional Argentinian recordkeeping can be a bit fuzzy at times—although he did finish all 11 of them. The step up from Samurai Fight House fare to Mullarkey is a towering one for the 20-year-old, especially given that Prado has only reached Round 3 once. While he only sports a 3-3 record in the UFC, Mullarkey has the wherewithal to take everything Prado can dish out early on, turn the tables and make him pay when he fatigues. It might be a scary few minutes while Prado engages his adrenaline dump, but the savvy Mullarkey should be able to strike back and gain the upper hand.

Starting off the fight card will be Russia against Brazil, as Tukhugov makes his first walk to the Octagon since October 2021. Normally, that type of cage corrosion might make bettors wary of putting something down on a fighter away for a while, but his skills do not appear to be the kind that will degrade with age and inactivity. The onus will be on Elves Brener Oliveira—making his debut with his last victory coming over a 3-1 competitor from Mexico—to fight off the takedowns and make Tukhugov pay for trying to do so. Brener might stay on his back fishing for submissions rather than looking to get back to his feet, and unless he catches an armbar while the two are dry, Tukhugov should be able to wear the debutant out and work him over with methodical ground-and-pound. It might not be the most thrilling approach to watch, but it should be effective and should also cash the first leg of this accumulator.