Prime Picks: UFC 235 ‘Jones vs. Smith’

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The Octagon heads back to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this Saturday night for UFC 235. The card is full of star power at the top as Ultimate Fighting Championship light heavyweight champion Jon Jones puts his title on the line against Anthony Smith in the main event, while the co-main event features UFC welterweight king Tyron Woodley against Kamaru Usman. There are 13 total fights on the card and the sportsbooks are offering odds for all of them. Below are my top plays in the UFC 235 edition of Prime Picks.

Johnny Walker (-145)

One of the UFC’s breakout stars is Walker, and I believe he continues his rise up the light heavyweight ladder with a win over Misha Cirkunov. This is a tremendous fight between two talented fighters, but I believe Walker has several key advantages. The Brazilian has all the momentum in the world leading up to this fight as he’s riding an eight-fight win streak, which includes back-to-back knockouts over Khalil Rountree and Justin Ledet. The Ledet fight only lasted 15 seconds and took place just a few weeks ago, so Walker should be in tremendous shape for this bout. He does have some early-career losses by stoppage, but Walker has really looked like an elite talent so far in the UFC and it appears he has greatly improved. Although he took this fight on short notice filling in for the injured Ovince St. Preux, I think this is a good match stylistically for him. While Cirkunov is coming off of a nice submission win over Pat Cummins, it’s hard to forget he was brutally finished by both Glover Teixeira and Volkan Oezdemir before that. His chin has looked shaky and Walker is going to test it here. I like the Brazilian to get the KO over Cirkunov in this fight, and I love the -145 odds.

Edmen Shahbazyan (-125)

Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series has produced some intriguing young talent through its first two seasons, and one of those fighters is middleweight prospect Shahbazyan. Just 21 years-old, the Edmond Tarverdyan-trained fighter already has a perfect 8-0 pro mixed martial arts record with seven of those victories coming by knockout. The only fight he’s had that’s gone the distance was his UFC debut, a hard-fought split decision win over the underrated Darren Stewart. Though he didn’t get the finish, I like that Shahbazyan was able to go three rounds and mix in some grappling with his striking to beat a quality fighter. Super young and with a tremendous amount of upside, I think Shahbazyan is going to have a great career in the UFC.

The prospect’s next test will be Charles Byrd, who is a Contender Series alum himself. "Kid Dynamite" picked up a great UFC debut win when he submitted John Phillips, but he was knocked out by the aforementioned Stewart in his last fight and showed his age. He might seem younger than he is because he’s new to the UFC, but Byrd is actually 35 and, despite his finishing ability, he’s also taken quite a bit of damage in his career. I can’t ignore the 14-year age gap advantage here for Shahbazyan. Either he knocks "Kid Dynamite" out or wins a decision, but either way, I like him at -125 odds.

Diego Sanchez (+225)

My dog picks for the night is Sanchez to upset Mickey Gall. For some reason, Sanchez is a big underdog in this fight, and I just don’t understand why Gall is so heavily favored to win. Yes, Gall is a good young fighter, and he’s in the prime of his career at 27, but the fact remains he only has six pro fights. Most of his wins have come over fighters no longer in the UFC. Not only that, but he’s only won his fights by submission, having shown no knockout power throughout his career.

His opponent, Sanchez, has never been submitted through 39 pro fights, and I don’t see Gall being the first man to submit the long-time veteran. Though Sanchez is 37, and on the tail end of his career, he showed in his last victory over Craig White that he still has some gas left in the tank. The move to welterweight looks like a smart one for Sanchez as not cutting so much weight should help with his durability. We know he’s a solid wrestler with tremendous cardio, and this looks like a similar matchup to Gall vs. Randy Brown, which was the younger fighter’s lone career defeat. I think Sanchez uses his experience to take Gall to deep waters and win a decision. At +225 odds, you have to put some money on Sanchez here to get the upset. There’s just too much value to pass up.

Adam Martin is a mixed martial arts journalist who has been covering the sport since 2011. He is currently the lead odds analyst for Sherdog.com as well as the lead staff writer for MMAOddsbreaker.com. Adam is also the co-host of “The Parting Shot Podcast” on iTunes. His favorite fight of all time is Dan Henderson vs. Mauricio Rua and he wishes Pride never died. Adam is based out of Toronto, Ontario, Canada, and he is a graduate of the University of Toronto and Centennial College. Get in touch with him on Twitter @MMAdamMartin.