Without any competition from the Ultimate Fighting Championship over the weekend, Bellator MMA will posture up on Friday with a card extremely light on name recognition. As is the case for most Bellator events, lines vary drastically, with three different competitors cracking sky-high -1000 favored odds. The Bellator 293 edition of Prime Picks avoids those wide lines like the plague and instead highlights a pair of extremely live underdogs on the main draw.
Daniel James (+130)
The year is 2023, and Marcelo Golm is intentionally headlining an event for a major organization. This is not to completely bury the Brazilian, but there is a lot being placed on his shoulders here. Just 2-0 with the promotion thus far, Golm sports a win over 4-3 competitor in Billy “Big Sexy” Swanson and a late come-from-behind finish of then-unbeaten Davion Franklin that thrust him into this spotlight. Despite being a large heavyweight who tips the scales above 250 pounds and carrying a knockout rate of 70%, Golm does not hold plus power relative to his division. Instead, he tends to get things done by dragging foes to the mat and clubbing them until they say “Matte.” What makes this line especially live is that James just thwarted that kind of approach in November, when he wrecked superior wrestler Tyrell Fortune in a fight he was already winning.
In most other divisions, the 41-year-old James would be written off and expected to ride off into the sunset. James, however, made his return to Bellator—he debuted at Bellator 112 in 2014—less than six months ago and was looking to the future and a title run. On paper, this encounter is about as minimal as can be in terms of drawing eyeballs, and it is even stranger that James is not ranked in the Top 5 in Bellator despite demolishing the currently fourth-ranked Fortune. “The Predator,” a big man who did not even vie for Absolute Championship Akhmat or Legacy Fighting Alliance belts when fighting under their ranks, is all gas and no brakes. With this being a five-round affair, it is possible that Golm could survive an early pounding and record a late finish, but his durability is not absolute.
Bellator prop bets are few and far between, especially for lower-caliber events, and spreads are limited on what types of lines are up. Even for the main event, only a small number of books have more than three or four props available, and they are all about time and seem to forget that all Bellator headliners are five-round matches. If the standard slate of props were up for grabs—and they are basically unavailable less than 48 hours before the fights begin—then James winning by stoppage (+190) would be quite reasonable and advisable, as it appears to be finish or bust for this heavy swinger. With multiple physical advantages and the sheer horsepower to turn a takedown attempt into a disadvantageous situation, James has all the tools to procure the upset.
John Salter (+300)
During a memorable 11-fight stint that has seen him post victories over names like Dustin Jacoby, Chidi Njokuani and Costello van Steenis, Salter has shown he does not want to be paid by the hour. With just one decision win and a lone decision defeat, Salter fights for the finish and does not care how it comes together. This has led him to a few roadblocks against defensively sound fighters, but when the only three middleweights in Bellator to beat him are Rafael Lovato Jr., Gegard Mousasi and Johnny Eblen, he slots in a whit below the top echelon of his division. Time may not be on the 38-year-old Salter’s side when he comes up against a foe eight years his junior, but Aaron Jeffery should not be a -400 favorite against any ranked middleweight, let alone an ex-title challenger.
Every time Canada’s Jeffery has been ready to take that step to the next level, he has faltered. Early in his career, he moved up to the Cage Fury Fighting Championships ranks, met fellow 2-0 prospect Sean Brady and fell short. A four-fight winning streak propelled Jeffery to a shot on Dana White’s Contender Series, and he succumbed to a choke from Brendan Allen. Four more victories allowed him another bite at the DWCS apple, and Caio Borralho turned him away. All three of those names are excellent talents, and Salter might be yet again a bridge too far for the aggressive, mullet-sporting Jeffery. If history is any indication, they should come out of their corners like spinning Beyblades, looking to inflict carnage and not caring if they suffer some damage to get there. These collisions are where Salter can enjoy success, especially if he gets his hands on Jeffery and manages to take his back sometime during the fight. Salter has plenty of weapons to pull off the upset, and at substantial plus money, he should not be overlooked.