Bellator MMA takes a rare Saturday to take on the Ultimate Fighting Championship, doing so with its first jaunt on the CBS airwaves and a pair of belts up for grabs. Those championship collisions—one a rematch, the other serving as the first defense for an undefeated hotshot—will serve as the sole focus for the Bellator 290 edition of Prime Picks, as the promotion battles UFC Fight Night 218 in part for a share of eyeballs.
Ryan Bader Wins Inside Distance (-215)
For those hopeful for one last clock rewind, this pick may sting a bit. Bellator rarely receives the full slate of props that a big UFC show offers, so the direct pick would be actually Bader Wins by TKO/KO. If “Darth” Bader is going to beat Fedor Emelianenko inside the distance, it is almost certainly going to be from strikes and not via a slick back take with a forearm sliding beneath the chin. No major books currently hold Bader winning by knockout, and if/when they put it out, it will be nearly identical to the play above. MMA is a sport that is especially cruel to the elderly, where few legends go home with “one last win” when advancing in age. The striking may still be in play for Emelianenko at 46, but the rest? Not so much.
Some have prognosticated that a safer option may instead be picking the Under 1.5 Rounds choice, if that can be found. This allows for Emelianenko to plunk “The Ultimate Fighter 8” winner as he is wont to do at times, while also allowing for the expectation that Bader repeats history with another quick drubbing of the legend. Not historically known as a fearsome knockout artist, the Arizona State University Pac-10 wrestling champion did spark Muhammad Lawal in 15 seconds and then have another flash of brilliance in 2019 against Emelianenko with one clean left hook. The remainder of his wins in the division have been by that overwhelming wrestling, and his cardio has held up even though he is no spring chicken at 39. Where the aforementioned under could fall apart is if Bader gets tagged early and plunges his safety valve of takedowns at all costs, as he can rack up plenty of top control with effective but not destructive ground-and-pound.
As Tim Johnson and Quinton Jackson learned in the last two fights against “The Last Emperor,” Emelianenko can still crack. While his recoverability is not nearly as sterling as in years past—Matt Mitrione can attest to that after their double knockdown—if he lands, he can put you out. Against the mustachioed Johnson, Emelianenko slipped strikes as if he were 20 years younger and gained the upper hand to send his counterpart astral traveling. Bader’s jaw is far from immaculate, and if backed up, his head movement can diminish and elusiveness can turn into straight angles that allow more seasoned strikers to plant shots on his chin. In recent memory, both Vadim Nemkov and Corey Anderson measured him and put him down, and neither of those competitors hold the one-hitter quitter ability that Emelianenko still possesses. However, that pop may fade after just a few minutes, and he will also have to survive getting struck back while wading forward with looping shots. Even if Bader gets his bell rung, he still has the ability to make the Russian’s life miserable with his wrestling, and a later-round stoppage is not remotely out of the question if it gets out of the first frame.
Anatoly Tokov (+215)
From his high school state champion days to learning at a Division I school like the University of Missouri to training with Steve Mocco at American Top Team, Bellator middleweight titleholder Johnny Eblen’s wrestling is understandably top-notch. Seemingly coming out of nowhere with a shiny unbeaten record in 2022, Eblen went from a virtual unknown to champion by using those chops to deflate John Salter and shut down Gegard Mousasi in the span of a few months. Topping “The Dreamcatcher” is no easy task, which is why Eblen comes in here as a sizable -255 favorite, but he did so by exploiting Mousasi’s oft-chided takedown defense and low activity off his back. While Eblen may very well defeat his first challenger, Tokov, the fight should be far closer than the lines are suggesting.
Eblen is not simply a one-dimensional wrestler, and he has shown some speed and power in his hands. He has not scored the types of knockouts that cause great grapplers to develop “strikeritis,” so he still is able to comfortably rely on his best asset without fighting the urge to sling untethered leather, a la Johny Hendricks. Coupled with the cardio to do that for five rounds, Tokov is unquestionably in for a tough fight. However, he comes back with an extremely well-rounded skill set that includes power in his hands and danger if they hit the mat in the form of an active guard. While not 25 minutes like Eblen just displayed in June, Tokov has reached the 20-minute mark as a pro without falling. The first two rounds will be extremely important for the Russian, if he can take some of the steam out of Eblen by shutting down his entries and not allowing himself to remain on the mat for extended stretches. Keeping Eblen honest by tagging him on errant shots may help, but latching on to a low-percentage guillotine as the rounds progress will not. Sporting multiple avenues to victory and with Eblen still not fully tested against someone who can sprawl-and-brawl with the best of them, Tokov is an extremely live dog.