Parlaying and Praying: UFC 230






 


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Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

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The “third time” is supposed to be the proverbial charm, but the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s third trip to Madison Square Garden for UFC 230 has been embattled and diminished in its run-up, to say the least. Does that make it a bad card? Not in the slightest.

The main event, a heavyweight championship bout between Daniel Cormier and Derrick Lewis, was born out of less-than-ideal circumstances. Cormier has admitted he has an injured hand, and the perpetually winded Lewis fought less than a month ago. However, Cormier as a -700 favorite does not invalidate a strong and legitimate heavyweight title fight between an active legend and one of the most entertaining fighters and devastating punchers in the game. No beef here, except for the combatants.

On the other hand, the UFC only arrived at this headliner after its shady and slimy subterfuge involving Valentina Shevchenko, Sijara Eubanks and Joanna Jedrzejczyk over its vacant women’s flyweight title, which went from a rumored Shevchenko-Jedrzejczyk bout, to the completely “WTF?” and inappropriate Shevchenko-Eubanks fight, to Jedrzejczyk publicly saying the UFC pressured her to fight earlier than ready before pulling the rug out from under her. Under public pressure and having its gambit laid bare, the UFC quickly cobbled together its one-handed heavyweight champion and its social media kingpin, still exhausted from fighting four weeks ago, for its main event.

Plus, former middleweight champion Luke Rockhold injured himself three different ways before his rematch with the man from whom he took the 185-pound strap: Chris Weidman. Can you imagine that? Folks, this is the UFC in 2018. To use the adage “the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry” would be a woefully shortcoming statement. We have to take what we’re given -- or at least what comes together -- and what ended up coming together ain’t too shabby at all. Having said that, let’s figure out how to make some money on UFC 230:

Straight Up Cash

Chris Weidman (-180)

Swerve. Maybe I tipped my hand mentioning Cormier’s odds in the intro, but in most of these columns, I try to appeal to the masses and give some insight on the main event; after all, that’s largely what people want. However, Cormier is -700, and if you’re the sport who wants to bet on Lewis at +450 just to take a flyer, I won’t fault you at all. The man hits damn hard. Even if you’re conceding there could be that fleeting chance Lewis lands those hands, more than likely you realize Cormier is going to cool off those hot balls in a hurry, so I won’t waste your time. I mean, who wants to bet on a -700 favorite when he might get slugged in the face in an epic upset?

Yes, Weidman has not fought in over a year and has been plagued by injuries, albeit not as brutally as Rockhold. However, he has had a full and healthy camp to prepare for this fight against Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, who stepped in for Rockhold on two weeks’ notice. It’s a legitimate concern that Souza represents a tougher challenge than most other competitors at 185 pounds for the former UFC champion. After all, Souza, even at 38 years old, is a phenomenal athlete who is well-equipped to step in on short notice; he has underrated striking; and he is also one of the best grapplers in history, on the mat and in the cage.

However, one of the oldest tropes in MMA is that when two elite grapplers meet, it turns into a striking match. That’s what I am forecasting here. Weidman isn’t a classic double-leg guy. In fact, “Jacare” probably has the more explosive power double. Weidman’s best wrestling comes from the clinch, and Souza is a judo black belt first and foremost, which is part of the constituent reason he was such a well-versed powerhouse during his grappling career. No, these two are going to trade strikes. Two things stand out: One, Souza’s chin has been his downfall throughout his career, and two, Weidman throws in more varied combination. Souza’s standup has come a long way, but he is still a two- or three-punch thrower: jab-cross, jab-uppercut or jab-cross-uppercut. Weidman is far more creative and able in his punching, as evidenced in his last bout with Kelvin Gastelum. In the Gastelum fight, he used his striking to set up his grappling, and it’s highly unlikely that Weidman will get Souza down and tap him. However, Weidman’s more varied punching combinations and kicking offense is going to carry the weight on the feet, and if there are takedowns to be had, they’re going to be set up with his more varied combination punching. I think we are going the distance in this one, but if either man has a real shot at a finish, it’s Weidman on the feet clunking the Brazilian. Otherwise, I think the Long Islander can be the man to use his striking to buy takedowns, land some ground-and-pound and grind out a decision.

Straight Up Pass

Sijara Eubanks (-650)

Avoid, avoid, avoid. Again, I advocated against betting against Cormier at -700, and Eubanks is near that betting line now after opening at -380. Everything about this screams potential disaster. I know that folks are unlikely to bet on Eubanks straight up at this number, but if you’re considering a parlay with her involved, don’t let her be the classic parlay breaker, even if you feel sympathy that she lost her chance at a UFC title due to some greasy politics.

Yes, I think Eubanks is going to win this fight. She’s a powerful if unpolished striker, solid wrestler and has some submission chops. However, there is a trend running nearly 15 years now against betting against Roxanne Modafferi. Eubanks, unlike a lot of women, doesn’t have an extensive amateur background, where her pro record belies her amount of experience; Modafferi has literally been doing this for 15 years. At 36, that may seem like a strike against her, but when we talk about fighters aging, we think of them losing athleticism. Fact check: Modafferi may be the most successful MMA fighter ever while simultaneously being the worst athlete ever. She isn’t winning fights on power punching, quick moving, fast-twitch explosion. She is, to a dorky degree, a technician. If she can string Eubanks out, this could get harried.

That’s my thinking. Like I said, I don’t think too many people are taking Eubanks at -650, yet there’s a reason she was bet up from -380 to -650 and I think a lot of people are still inclined to slide her into a parlay, just being greedy and trying to make a few extra dollars. Eubanks is physically talented, but she’s still incredibly raw, has potential to gas, get out-guiled and give up some opportune takedowns to Modafferi, who always appears to have a flimsy game, yet has achieved some massive victories in her career, all while fighting the creme de la creme. Eubanks might spank her, but if her weight cut drained her -- she did miss the mark on the scale -- or her game is incomplete, “The Happy Warrior” can land some leg kicks, buy a few takedowns and at least drive this to an uncomfortable split decision. It’s easy to try to make a buck off of this because Modafferi might be the nerdiest non-athlete to ever become a notable MMA fighter, but this juice ain’t worth the squeeze.

A Propular Bet

Lyman Good Wins by Decision (+460)

This one is a bit shaky, but the prop line is just too juicy to resist. As a courtesy heads up, there are several other interesting props to dive on. For instance, Cormier inside the distance against Lewis is -440, yet “DC” by strikes stoppage is +105 and by submission is +175. Both of those are appetizing props because there is a cognitive dissonance between all of those numbers. Oddsmakers are saying it’s likely Cormier is going to finish this, yet are giving you something to savor. The question is whether or not you think he’ll punch out an exhausted Lewis or hit a mercy-killing rear-naked choke on “The Black Beast.”

If you think you can figure out which one is more likely, bet that. However, this prop line offers four times the money for something that is still highly likely to happen.

I understand where oddsmakers are coming from. Saunders is 35 years old, has endured a violent and embattled career and is 1-3 in his last four fights. However, despite 12 stoppages in 19 career wins, Good is not a natural finisher. First of all, given the trajectory of any MMA fighter’s career, 12 stoppages in 19 wins is not necessarily impressive. Secondly, even though Good is a highly competent striker, he’s not a natural knockout artist. Good’s greatest strength is that he is a massive welterweight who presents as a striker but has sneaky, well-rounded skills. Recently, Saunders was tapped out Sergio Moraes, a world-class grappler, and knocked out by Alan Jouban and Peter Sobotta, who are aggressive, finish-minded fighters. Good is not that kind of guy. Also, Good hasn’t fought in over two years. This dude wants his show money and win bonus. I think the Team Tiger Schulmann product will throw some heavy strikes early -- and, yes, one of them could deck the shopworn “Killa B” -- but if he doesn’t get a quick knockout, Good will have to shift gears. Instead of dealing with the impossibly long and rangy Saunders, he is going to drive into his body, get double underhooks and look for ground-and-pound, as he is a clever wrestler and that’s ultimately Saunders’ career-long difficulty. This one could be a risk if Saunders really can’t eat a punch anymore, but Good is a low-key conservative fighter, and given his situation -- professionally and financially -- he is going to do the thing that gets him the win. I would bank on this going the full 15 minutes.

An Un-Propular Bet

Shane Burgos Wins Inside the Distance (+120)

Burgos, an infinitely better striker and well-rounded MMA fighter than opponent Kurt Holobaugh, is almost certainly going to win this fight. Despite his third-round stoppage loss to Calvin Kattar, Burgos has a smart, wrestle-boxing style that is going to allow him to stay on the UFC roster for years -- unless the Professional Fighters League remains a thing and he wants to go beat Steven Siler for a million dollars.

In all seriousness, Burgos has basically every advantage over Holobaugh, who will just want to take him to the ground and try to chain together a bunch of lock flows he has trained in jiu-jitsu class. Holobaugh is a slick grappler, but he’s not going to find purchase here. However, he’s also not going to get finished.

Granted, in his last fight, Holobaugh was stopped for the first time in his career, but again, think about what I just wrote, with emphasis on “the first time.” Holobaugh is tough as nails. Burgos is a fantastic offensive fighter, especially on the feet. He is a surgical striker who can take his opponents to task with all eight points, but he doesn’t have one-hitter-quitter power. On top of that, even if he drops Holobaugh, his opponent will be sturdy and smart enough to utilize an active guard and stop any oncoming ground-and-pound nastiness. Burgos is likely to beat up Holobaugh, but the falsely tantalizing line for him to finish his opponent should be keenly neglected as he mashes this up to an inevitable decision.

An Accumulation Contemplation

Chris Weidman (-180)
Brian Kelleher (+105)
Lando Vannata (-260)
Total Odds: +342

Weidman’s inclusion has already been explained. He is literally the most appetizing favorite at the best line you could possibly get. Sure, there’s a measure of danger, but that’s the name of the game. A three-team parlay inherently induces a level of risk, at least if you’re doing it right.

As for Kelleher, he might be the juiciest line on the entire card. He’s far from a perfect fighter and as I’ve previously espoused in these columns, opponent Montel Jackson is an athletic stud with real boxing and ground-and-pound ability. However, even if Kelleher doesn’t stick Jackson to a straight grappling game, he’s far more experienced and clever, with the ability to quickly hit a broken takedown into a submission opportunity. Jackson is a wild horse needing to be tamed. Unfortunately for him, he won a contract off of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contenders Series before he got to flesh out his game. This one could be the parlay buster, but Kelleher, for all his penchant to slug it out, is also an underrated grappler and can exploit Jackson on the floor, whether it means holding him down or finding a submission. Nonetheless, Jackson has a bright future in the game, even if a modern gamer like Kelleher has the skills to take advantage of him with the right strategy.

As for Vannata, for a lot of folks, the bloom has come off the rose after his shocking late-notice promotional debut against Tony Ferguson at UFC Fight Night 91, where he rocked “El Cucuy” and nearly tipped over the apple cart. However, offense still matters in this sport and in facing Matt Frevola, he has a target who simply can’t match that kind of firepower. Frevola doesn’t have the striking or wrestling game to force Vannata out of his comfort zone and should end up at the mercy of whatever the “Groovy” one wants to do.